The 2025 WNBA season has been defined by its unpredictability, with expansion teams overperforming, recent dynasties stumbling, and a new generation of talent making its mark. As preseason narratives have given way to surprising realities, here is an analysis of the season’s biggest developments and what they mean for the future.
Biggest surprises
Success of the expansion Valkyries
Expectations were low for the Golden State Valkyries, the WNBA’s first expansion team since 2008. Historically, new franchises have struggled; the Atlanta Dream debuted at 4-30, and the previous six expansion clubs had a combined .240 winning percentage. Accordingly, ESPN BET set the Valkyries’ preseason win total at a league-low 8.5.
Golden State has shattered those projections. After winning nine of their first 16 games, the team remains in playoff contention. While veteran guard Tiffany Hayes has provided steady leadership, the team’s success has been fueled by breakout performances from Kayla Thornton, Veronica Burton, Temi Fagbenle, and Monique Billings. An Elo-based forecast now projects the Valkyries to finish with 20.8 wins, more than double their preseason estimate.
What’s next: A season-ending knee injury to Thornton in mid-July dealt a significant blow to Golden State’s campaign, robbing the team of a key scorer and defender. The pressure now falls on players like Burton, who is enjoying a strong all-around season with a plus-3.1 estimated RAPTOR rating, to carry the team’s playoff aspirations.
Rookie guards are standing out
Conventional wisdom in the WNBA suggests that rookie forwards and centers adapt more quickly to the professional level than guards. Top draft picks like Candace Parker, Breanna Stewart, and A’ja Wilson made an immediate impact, while elite perimeter prospects such as Kelsey Plum, Sabrina Ionescu, and Caitlin Clark have historically required more time to adjust, often posting below-average advanced metrics in their first year.
This season’s rookie class is bucking that trend. Paige Bueckers is on pace to produce one of the most valuable seasons for a rookie guard since 2008, as measured by Consensus Wins—a metric blending RAPTOR, Win Shares, and PER. Sonia Citron is performing at a nearly identical level, and alongside Monique Akoa Makani, they make up the three most valuable rookies so far, all of them guards.
What’s next: If Bueckers wins Rookie of the Year, it would mark the first time since 2004-2007 that guards have earned the honor in consecutive seasons. This new generation is challenging long-held beliefs about the development curve for the position.
The Dream’s dream season
The Atlanta Dream entered 2025 having not posted a winning record since 2018, a period of instability that saw five head coaches and numerous roster changes. Following the hiring of coach Karl Smesko and the key offseason additions of Brionna Jones and Brittney Griner, the franchise has executed a remarkable turnaround.
Atlanta currently boasts the league’s third-best net rating (+5.3) and offensive rating (106.1), trailing only the Minnesota Lynx and New York Liberty. Holdovers have excelled, with Allisha Gray playing at an MVP-candidate level and Rhyne Howard continuing her development as an elite two-way guard. Jordin Canada and Naz Hillmon have also shown significant improvement, elevating the team into a legitimate contender.
What’s next: A knee injury to Howard just before the All-Star break threatens to derail Atlanta’s momentum. However, the team has gone 4-3 in her absence and appears strong enough to secure a top-four seed and home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.
Azura Stevens, Gabby Williams have leveled up
This season has seen two established veterans, Azura Stevens of the Los Angeles Sparks and Gabby Williams of the Seattle Storm, elevate their play to new heights. Both were top-six picks in the 2018 draft but had previously been solid role players rather than stars. Before this season, Stevens averaged 9.4 points with a minus-0.7 RAPTOR, while Williams posted 7.3 points with a minus-0.4 RAPTOR.
This year, both have transformed their games. Stevens is averaging 14.7 points with a plus-2.7 RAPTOR, while Williams has surged to 12.8 points and an elite plus-5.1 RAPTOR. According to Consensus Wins, both now rank among the top-20 most valuable players in the league, a significant leap from their previous career-best performances.
What’s next: For Williams, the goal is to maintain her role as a key supporting scorer alongside Skylar Diggins and Nneka Ogwumike while anchoring Seattle’s elite defense for a deep playoff run. Stevens, meanwhile, is the linchpin for a Sparks team fighting for a final postseason spot, making her contributions at both ends of the floor critical to their chances.
Biggest disappointments
The Caitlin Clark-Angel Reese rivalry has been a nonfactor
After transformative rookie seasons that captured national attention, the rivalry between Caitlin Clark and Angel Reese was expected to be a central storyline in 2025. An early-season matchup drew 2.7 million viewers, the WNBA’s most-watched regular-season game since 2000, but the on-court action failed to deliver sustained drama.
Clark and the Indiana Fever dominated that contest, and since then, both players have encountered difficulties. Clark, known for her durability, has played in only 12 of 27 games due to injury, and her shooting numbers have declined. Reese has improved her shooting but has seen her overall efficiency and plus-minus rating drop, and her Chicago Sky team has struggled. Subsequent matchups have been marred by injuries, with both stars missing their July 27 game.
What’s next: With Clark still sidelined and the Sky out of playoff contention, only one potential meeting remains on September 5. While the league continues to thrive in a new era of popularity, its premier individual rivalry has unfortunately played no significant role this season.
The Aces no longer look like a dynasty
After winning their second consecutive championship in 2023, the Las Vegas Aces boasted the highest Elo rating in WNBA history, surpassing the legendary 2000 Houston Comets. Led by A’ja Wilson, the team appeared to be playing at an unprecedented level of greatness.
Two years later, that dynasty is a distant memory. The Aces’ league-best plus-15.6 net rating from 2023 has plummeted to a negative-0.6. The team has dropped from first to seventh in offense and from first to ninth in defense. While Wilson remains an MVP-caliber talent, the rest of the roster has regressed. Chelsea Gray and former Ace Kelsey Plum’s replacement, Jewell Loyd, have taken steps back, and the team’s depth has eroded, leaving Wilson and Jackie Young as the only players with a positive RAPTOR rating.
What’s next: The Aces should still secure a seventh straight playoff berth, but their ability to contend is in serious doubt. Barring a significant impact from former All-Star Cheyenne Parker-Tyus upon her potential return, Las Vegas appears to lack the depth and firepower to reclaim its former dominance.
CBA negotiations remain in flux
While the on-court action was meant to be the focus of a season marked by unprecedented growth, off-court labor disputes have increasingly taken center stage. Ongoing negotiations for a new collective bargaining agreement have been tense, with a summit between WNBPA representatives and Commissioner Cathy Engelbert last month reportedly yielding little progress.
The tension was visible at the All-Star Game, where players warmed up in T-shirts reading “Pay Us What You Owe Us.” With the current CBA set to expire on October 31, the core issue remains how to divide the league’s skyrocketing revenue, expansion fees, and franchise valuations. Until a resolution is found, these business matters threaten to overshadow the game itself.
What’s next: All parties will be watching closely as the deadline approaches. With so much at stake during a period of peak fan interest and investment, the next three months will be among the most pivotal in the WNBA’s history.
