The first Tuesday in November marks the running of the Melbourne Cup over the iconic 3200-metre course at Flemington. As a field of local and international contenders prepares for the nation’s greatest race, here is an essential form guide for every runner.
1. AL RIFFA – Odds: $9, Form: 10x3x42211, Career: 17: 5-6-1
This Irish contender arrives with strong recent form but is untested in Australian racing conditions. While expertly trained and partnered with acclaimed jockey Mark Zahra, its ability to adapt remains a significant question, making it a high-potential but equally high-risk proposition.
2. BUCKAROO (GB) – Odds: $9, Form: 9x970x3232, Career: 31: 5-6-6
Coming off a narrow second-place finish in the 2040-metre Cox Plate at Moonee Valley, this runner has proven its class. However, its ninth-place finish in last year’s Cup raises concerns. With Craig Williams aboard, it remains a legitimate threat if it can handle the distance.
3. ARAPAHO – Odds: $51, Form: 5241×36408, Career: 49: 10-6-4
Recent performances, including an eighth in the Bendigo Cup and a distant finish in The Metrop, are uninspiring. Its main advantage is a previous victory over this 3200-metre trip, and its chances would improve significantly with rain-affected ground.
4. VAUBAN – Odds: $26, Form: 0x130x3650, Career: 32: 11-5-4
After finishing 13th in the Caulfield Cup, this horse faces a tough challenge. Despite having jockey Blake Shinn and a favourable draw in barrier two, its history of underperforming in the Melbourne Cup, including an 11th-place finish last year, is difficult to overlook.
5. CHEVALIER ROSE – Odds: $31, Form: x11x070x0x, Career: 35: 5-5-2
This Japanese contender makes its Australian debut with inconsistent form and following a spell. On a dry track, completing the challenging course appears to be its most realistic achievement.
6. PRESAGE NOCTURNE – Odds: $8.50, Form: 71x4x13x34, Career: 18: 6-5-3
A leading favourite after an impressive fourth in the Caulfield Cup. Its strong overseas record suggests the 3200-metre distance will be ideal. Expect this horse to be a major contender in the final stages of the race.
7. MIDDLE EARTH – Odds: $41, Form: x159x50903, Career: 18: 5-3-2
Its recent third in the 2040-metre JRA Cup at Moonee Valley was an improvement on its 11th-place finish in the Caulfield Cup. However, its ability to run out a strong 3200 metres remains a serious query.
8. MEYDAAN – Odds: $17, Form: 7×52005239, Career: 17: 3-2-2
This lightly-raced son of Frankel finished a respectable ninth in the Caulfield Cup. While drawn wide in barrier 22, the booking of master jockey James McDonald ensures it will be given every opportunity to be in the finish.
9. ABSURDE – Odds: $23, Form: x33132x3x7, Career: 29: 7-7-6
Returning for another attempt after finishing fifth last year. Its recent seventh in the Caulfield Cup shows it is tracking adequately. With proven stamina over the distance, it has the credentials to be a factor in the closing stages.
10. FLATTEN THE CURVE – Odds: $21, Form: 1x1144111x, Career: 54: 11-10-5
This French import arrives in Australia with excellent winning form. However, heading into the Cup without a local lead-up run is a significant challenge. The horse will be ridden by German jockey Thore Hammer-Hansen.
11. LAND LEGEND – Odds: $61, Form: x768x39500, Career: 24: 4-2-2
Recent form is poor, having finished last in the Turnbull Stakes and near the back of the field in the Caulfield Cup. Its only appeal is the precedent set by last year’s winner, Knight’s Choice, who won from a similarly uninspiring form line.
12. SMOKIN’ ROMANS – Odds: $61, Form: 0310×72948, Career: 53: 11-9-3
The nine-year-old veteran finished eighth in the Moonee Valley Cup and fourth in the Herbert Power. At this stage of its career, the demanding 3200-metre distance is expected to be a significant challenge.
13. CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD – Odds: $61, Form: 2×82106, Career: 18: 4-3-3
An unconvincing sixth in the Geelong Cup followed a last-place finish in The Metrop. On current form, this runner appears to be struggling to find its best and is unlikely to be a factor.
14. HALF YOURS – Odds: $7, Form: F211215141, Career: 15: 7-3-0
The dominant Caulfield Cup winner enters the race as the deserving favourite. Jockey Jamie Melham, who made history with that victory, will be aiming to secure the prestigious Caulfield-Melbourne Cup double.
15. MORE FELONS – Odds: $41, Form: 50x12x0944, Career: 24: 6-3-0
Displayed solid form in Sydney with consecutive fourth-place finishes in The Metrop and the St Leger. While consistent, it may find the elite competition in the Melbourne Cup a step too high.
16. ONESMOOTHOPERATOR – Odds: $23, Form: 5x840x1, Career: 51: 6-11-7
Enters the race following a confidence-boosting win in the 2500-metre Moonee Valley Cup. Despite being well-supported last year before finishing 12th, its low career win rate suggests it is more likely to place than win.
17. FURTHUR – Odds: $23, Form: 72×152516, Career: 8: 2-2-0
This lightly-raced Irish stayer will be making its Australian debut in the country’s toughest race after a 52-day break. History shows that international horses often struggle without a local preparation run.
18. PARCHMENT PARTY – Odds: $51, Form: 922331111x, Career: 22: 8-2-2
This American stayer also faces the challenge of a Melbourne Cup debut without a prior Australian start. A greater concern is that its best form has been on dirt tracks, meaning it will require firm, dry turf to have any chance.
19. ATHABASCAN – Odds: $81, Form: 82959×0002, Career: 39: 4-6-4
Showed significant improvement when running second in the Moonee Valley Cup. However, its form prior to that run was disappointing. The connections have a runner in the great race, but a victory seems unlikely.
20. GOODY TWO SHOES – Odds: $41, Form: 331111113x, Career: 26: 13-0-7
A former Irish hurdler with an exceptional winning strike rate. The challenge is immense, arriving for its first Australian start after a 94-day spell. It would need to be a truly special talent to overcome this preparation.
21. RIVER OF STARS – Odds: $17, Form: 42x73x7802, Career: 22: 4-6-5
Delivered an excellent performance to finish second in the Caulfield Cup, just half a length from the winner. The extra distance should pose no problem, making this horse a strong contender at attractive odds.
22. ROYAL SUPREMACY – Odds: $34, Form: 32×0011215, Career: 17: 6-4-3
After winning The Metrop at Randwick, it ran a solid fifth in the Caulfield Cup, beaten by only two and a half lengths. The primary doubt is whether it possesses the stamina to see out the full 3200 metres.
23. TORRANZINO – Odds: $34, Form: 4212×80821, Career: 33: 6-7-2
Comes into the race with a victory in the Geelong Cup, which has historically been a strong form reference. With a light weight and a preference for wet ground, it could be a threat if conditions are suitable.
24. VALIANT KING – Odds: $8, Form: 0x0693x013, Career: 20: 2-4-2
Lightly-weighted horses often perform well in the Cup, and this runner fits the profile. It stormed home from the back of the field for an eye-catching third in the Caulfield Cup and looks to be a prime candidate for all exotic bets.
