This NFL season has been defined by the unexpected. From Matthew Stafford emerging as an MVP favorite after receiving epidurals in August to the Patriots, Colts, and Bears leading their respective divisions, predictions have been consistently upended.
The Dallas Cowboys have also defied expectations, remaining a contender despite trading away Micah Parsons. While their Monday night victory over a struggling Las Vegas Raiders team may not be a benchmark, Dallas’s offense is undeniably potent. Dak Prescott is completing a career-high 70 percent of his passes with 22 total touchdowns, bolstered by two key acquisitions. Running back Javonte Williams is averaging 5.0 yards per carry and has excelled in pass protection, while George Pickens is making a strong case as the team’s top receiver, on pace for 99 catches, 1,543 yards, and 12 touchdowns.
Here is a look at the full slate of Week 12 games.
All odds are from BetMGM.
Buffalo Bills (-6) at Houston Texans | 8:15 p.m. ET Thursday, Amazon Prime
Thursday nights have favored underdogs, and the formidable Texans defense provides a compelling reason to back that trend. The Bills have lost five consecutive games in Houston, three of which were with Josh Allen at quarterback. In last season’s 23-20 loss to the Texans, Allen completed just 9 of 30 passes for 131 yards. Furthermore, the Bills’ defense has been vulnerable. While Davis Mills is no C.J. Stroud, he effectively targets top receiver Nico Collins, who has 16 catches for 228 yards over the past two weeks and is key to keeping this game close.
The pick: Texans
New York Giants at Detroit Lions (-10.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
The Lions have an impressive track record, covering the spread in 13 consecutive games following a loss. With quarterback Jared Goff returning to an indoor environment, Detroit is also 4-0 against the spread when favored by 10 or more points. However, the Giants present a tough matchup in the trenches. Their offensive line, once a weakness, has shown significant improvement, ranking 12th in pressure rate allowed and fourth in yards before contact per rush since Week 9. Combined with a strong defensive line, the Giants have the tools to stay within the large point spread.
The pick: Giants
New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens (-13.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
With Lamar Jackson operating at less than 100 percent for an occasionally overrated Ravens team, taking Tyrod Taylor and a 13.5-point spread is a logical contrarian play.
The pick: Jets
New England Patriots (-8.5) at Cincinnati Bengals | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
The Patriots continue their impressive run, with quarterback Drake Maye set to face one of the league’s most generous defenses. The Bengals have surrendered 154 points in their last four home games. On the other side of the ball, Joe Flacco will be without his top target, Ja’Marr Chase. Even if Joe Burrow makes an early return from injury, the disciplined Patriots are unlikely to be caught off guard.
The pick: Patriots
Pittsburgh Steelers at Chicago Bears (-2.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
Given the current quarterback situation in Chicago, the drop-off from Aaron Rodgers to Mason Rudolph is not significant enough to warrant the point spread. All seven of the Bears’ victories this season have come against teams with losing records. Pittsburgh is the pick here, regardless of who starts at quarterback for the Bears.
The pick: Steelers
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
While the Chiefs are an exceptional 5-5 team and Patrick Mahomes has lost back-to-back games only six times in his career, there are reasons to doubt them. Following his rare consecutive losses, the Chiefs are 5-0 straight up and 4-0-1 against the spread. Even so, the Colts boast the NFL’s most efficient offense, averaging 3.17 points per drive, and feature a dynamic weapon in Jonathan Taylor. This matchup projects to be a field-goal game, making the underdog an attractive pick.
The pick: Colts
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-6.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
The Packers are a difficult team to trust, especially with running back Josh Jacobs sidelined. The Vikings swept Green Bay last season, largely thanks to Aaron Jones, who is now fresh and ready to contribute for Minnesota alongside Jordan Mason. The Vikings’ rushing attack, combined with coordinator Brian Flores’ defensive schemes against a hobbled Packers offense, gives them a strong chance to cover.
The pick: Vikings
Seattle Seahawks (-13.5) at Tennessee Titans | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
Rookie quarterback Cam Ward’s development has been hindered by a predictable offense, an underachieving offensive line, and receivers prone to drops. These issues, coupled with interim head coach Mike McCoy’s conservative play-calling, have crippled the Titans. The Seahawks covered the spread last week despite four interceptions from Sam Darnold and should find a much easier path to victory by leaning on running back Kenneth Walker.
The pick: Seahawks
Cleveland Browns at Las Vegas Raiders (-4) | 4:05 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
In a compelling storyline, rookie Shedeur Sanders will make his first NFL start against the Raiders, a team co-owned by his college mentor, Tom Brady. While Las Vegas has struggled, the matchup favors them. The Browns’ offensive line is a significant weakness, and their receivers are unlikely to dominate a porous secondary. Furthermore, rookie running back Quinshon Judkins is a liability in pass protection, and Cleveland’s formidable defense has been merely ordinary on the road.
The pick: Raiders
Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals | 4:05 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
After a dominant 29-point victory over the Chargers, the Jaguars are in a classic spot to fade. However, Trevor Lawrence was not a major factor in that rout, suggesting he has room to elevate his performance this week. The Cardinals’ recent record-setting day for quarterback Jacoby Brissett, who had 47 completions, is misleading, as the 49ers played a soft zone with a large lead.
The pick: Jaguars
Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) at Dallas Cowboys | 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
The Eagles have won and covered in four straight games, but their offense has shown signs of weakness, ranking last in the NFL in average yards to go on third down (8.0). The loss of right tackle Lane Johnson is a critical blow. Since 2013, Philadelphia ranks third in offensive EPA per play with Johnson on the field but plummets to 28th when he is sidelined.
The pick: Cowboys
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-1.5) | 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
The Falcons’ quarterback situation is dire, with Kirk Cousins struggling and Michael Penix Jr. facing another knee surgery. The offense is further handicapped with receiver Drake London out of the lineup. In contrast, the Saints have seen running back Alvin Kamara regain his form, and he is poised for a second consecutive 100-yard performance against a spiraling Atlanta team.
The pick: Saints
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5) | 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC
The Rams have proven to be a legitimate contender, boasting a top-five offense and top-three defense while navigating the third-hardest schedule. However, they are coming off a significant divisional win and now face a desperate Buccaneers team that is getting healthier. This sets up as a potential let-down game for Los Angeles. Baker Mayfield has a history of heroics at SoFi Stadium, and he could deliver again.
The pick: Buccaneers
Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers (-7) | 8:15 p.m. ET Monday, ESPN
The 49ers have failed to cover the spread in four consecutive games following a win, and defensive vulnerabilities persist. The team struggles to generate a pass rush without Nick Bosa, and its linebacker and secondary units are underwhelming. The Panthers have just enough offensive capability to exploit these weaknesses and stay within a touchdown.
The pick: Panthers
TruMedia research courtesy of Jason Starrett.
