A shadow looms over the upcoming Major League Baseball offseason: the possibility that fear of a 2026-27 lockout could suppress the free-agent market a year ahead of schedule. A similar dynamic played out in the winter of 2020-21, the last offseason before a collective bargaining agreement expired, when free-agent spending dropped precipitously. While that market featured a weaker class and lingering COVID-19 concerns, players saw it as a stark reminder of how labor disputes can disrupt business.
The 2025-26 free-agent class is solid, anchored by nine-figure talent Kyle Tucker, MVP-caliber slugger Kyle Schwarber, and do-everything infielder Alex Bregman, should he opt out. It also features a number of interesting starting pitchers, reliable relievers, and considerable depth. But whether this group can help the league reach the $3 billion spending threshold exceeded in each of the past four offseasons may depend on three players largely unfamiliar to American fans.
The influx of talent from Japan shows no signs of slowing, with an impressive new group expected to pursue MLB careers for the 2026 season. Right-hander Tatsuya Imai and slugging third basemen Munetaka Murakami and Kazuma Okamoto could significantly impact the market, provided their Nippon Professional Baseball clubs make them available through the posting system.
At 27, Imai is the least known of the trio but perhaps the most intriguing. His talent belies his 5-foot-11, 154-pound frame. He is the hardest-throwing starter in Japan, with a fastball that sits at 95 mph and touches 99. Armed with a vicious slider and a five-pitch mix, Imai has posted a 1.50 ERA with 159 strikeouts in 143⅔ innings this season. The recent success of Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shota Imanaga has helped ease concerns about smaller starters, and scouts are taking notice; more than 20 attended Imai’s recent 10-strikeout, two-hit shutout. With his breakout control, the Saitama Seibu Lions could cash in on a significant posting fee. Contract predictions from front office officials vary widely, from a floor of $80 million to a high of $200 million, with a six-year, $140 million deal seen as a plausible outcome.
The markets for Murakami and Okamoto are less defined. Murakami, now 25, will likely be posted by the Yakult Swallows and has been scouted in person by top executives, including the Mets’ David Stearns and the Padres’ A.J. Preller. Though he has missed time with an injury, Murakami’s prodigious left-handed power is undeniable, with 15 home runs in just 138 plate appearances. Three years ago, he hit 56 homers, breaking Sadaharu Oh’s single-season record. While questions exist about his strikeout rate and defensive position, his power is elite. As the rare free agent available at age 25, his ceiling could be even higher than Imai’s.
Okamoto, 29, has been NPB’s most consistent power hitter since 2018. The Yomiuri Giants star is leading the league with a .314 batting average despite missing time with an elbow injury. Evaluators consider him the biggest question mark of the three, but a contract exceeding $50 million is realistic if he proves his health.
Here are 10 other key storylines heading into the winter:
1. How much will Kyle Tucker get?
Tucker’s contract projections have fluctuated this season. Entering the year, the 29-year-old looked like a $350-$400 million player due to his exceptional all-around production. A hot start bolstered his case, but a July slump while playing through a broken finger tempered expectations. Still, Tucker’s rare combination of hitting, running, and fielding at an elite level, paired with a minuscule strikeout rate, draws comparisons to Mookie Betts, who signed a 12-year, $365 million deal entering his age-28 season. Tucker’s final number will be massive, likely approaching the $400 million range, with teams like the Phillies and Giants in need of a cornerstone bat.
2. What will teams pay for a DH?
Typically, a 33-year-old designated hitter does not command a massive free-agent contract, but Kyle Schwarber is poised to be the exception. He leads the National League in home runs and RBIs and ranks among the top three in MLB in weighted on-base average, alongside Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani. He has played in all 139 of the Phillies’ games and boasts a 1.244 OPS in late-and-close situations. Beyond the numbers, Schwarber is regarded as an invaluable clubhouse leader. Despite his age and positional inflexibility, his total package should trigger a bidding war, likely securing a deal of at least four years at an annual salary of $30 million or more.
3. Does Alex Bregman stay or go?
A fixture in Houston’s lineup, Alex Bregman faces a pivotal decision. He is widely expected to opt out of his contract and enter free agency, positioning himself in the market’s top tier. Should he depart the Astros, teams in need of a third baseman will be watching closely. Bregman is recognized not just for his excellent at-bats and glove, but also for his leadership and baseball acumen. After playing on a lucrative short-term deal, he seems destined to land the five-year-plus contract that eluded him last winter, with an average annual value exceeding $35 million.
4. Who else will choose to be a free agent?
Within five days of the World Series, several players must decide on contract options. Here is the outlook on 13 key decisions:
- Pete Alonso, 1B, Mets: Will opt out. He will decline his $24 million option after another 30-homer, 100-RBI season.
- Edwin Díaz, CL, Mets: Will opt out, unless re-signed first. With a 1.87 ERA, he’ll seek to top the two years and $37 million remaining on his deal.
- Cody Bellinger, OF, Yankees: Will opt out. He’ll turn down a $25 million option to pursue a nine-figure deal after a resurgent season.
- Robert Suarez, CL, Padres: Will opt out. The 34-year-old will look for more than the two years and $16 million he is owed.
- Shane Bieber, SP, Blue Jays: Will opt out. A midseason trade removed the qualifying offer, making it easy to take a $4 million buyout over a $16 million option.
- Jack Flaherty, SP, Tigers: Will opt out. His high strikeout rate should be enough for him to decline a $20 million option and seek a larger guarantee.
- Trevor Story, SS, Red Sox: Will not opt out. The two years and $55 million remaining is likely too much to pass up.
- Tyler O’Neill, OF, Orioles: Will not opt out. After an injury-plagued season, he will not decline the two years and $33 million left on his deal.
- Joc Pederson, DH, Rangers: Will not opt out. He is unlikely to find his $18.5 million option value on the open market.
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr., OF, Diamondbacks: Will not opt out. A torn ACL sealed his decision to accept his $18 million player option.
- Ha-Seong Kim, SS, Braves: Will not opt out. After a down year, picking up his $16 million option makes the most sense.
- Frankie Montas, SP, Mets: Will not opt out. He will rehab from UCL surgery while collecting his $17 million salary.
- A.J. Minter, RP, Mets: Will not opt out. A season-ending injury after just 11 innings makes his $11 million option a certainty.
5. What about the players with club options?
This offseason features a long list of club options, most of which are expected to be exercised by their teams.
- Likely to be picked up: Shota Imanaga (Cubs, 3 years/$57M), Luis Robert Jr. (White Sox, $20M), Chris Sale (Braves, $18M), Salvador Perez (Royals, $13.5M), Brandon Lowe (Rays, $11.5M), Max Muncy (Dodgers, $10M), Jose Alvarado (Phillies, $9M), Freddy Peralta (Brewers, $8M), Ozzie Albies (Braves, $7M), Pete Fairbanks (Rays, $7M), Pierce Johnson (Braves, $7M), Ramon Laureano (Padres, $6.5M), Andrés Muñoz (Mariners, $6M), Tyler Kinley (Braves, $5M), Tim Hill (Yankees, $3M).
- Borderline: Colin Rea (Cubs, $6M), Brent Suter (Reds, $3M).
- Unlikely to be picked up: Andrew Kittredge (Cubs, $9M), Scott Barlow (Reds, $6.5M), John Means (Guardians, $6M), Kyle Hart (Padres, $5M), Jonathan Loaisiga (Yankees, $5M), Tom Murphy (Giants, $4M), Jose Urquidy (Tigers, $4M).
6. Which starting pitchers are going to get paid?
The class begins with Framber Valdez. Since 2020, he ranks first among qualified starters in wins and ground ball rate, fifth in innings pitched, and eighth in ERA. While a recent on-field incident with his catcher drew notice from front offices, Valdez’s elite stuff, consistent performance, and extensive playoff résumé ensure multiple nine-figure offers for the 32-year-old.
Other notable starters include:
- Dylan Cease: His elite stuff remains attractive to front offices despite a 4.71 ERA. At 30 and likely facing a qualifying offer, he could be a candidate for a shorter-term, high-value deal.
- Michael King: A strong September could remind teams that, when healthy, he has been one of the market’s best pitchers over the last two years.
- Ranger Suárez: The 30-year-old lefty excels in nearly every facet, featuring a six-pitch mix and a career-low walk rate. He is primed to cash in.
- Merrill Kelly: At 37, the crafty right-hander is positioned for a multiyear deal, aided by the fact that he cannot receive a qualifying offer after being traded midseason.
- Zac Gallen: A strong finish could earn him a qualifying offer. The looming labor stoppage may push him to seek a long-term deal now rather than test the market again in 2026.
- Lucas Giolito: He will pitch 14⅔ more innings to convert his $14 million club option into a $19 million mutual option, which he will decline to pursue the multiyear contract he has earned.
7. How good are the relief pitchers?
With Aroldis Chapman off the market, the top available arms include Edwin Díaz and Robert Suarez. The rest of the class offers significant depth:
- Ryan Helsley: His overpowering stuff will secure a multiyear, eight-figure deal, though a down season has lowered his ceiling.
- Devin Williams: After struggling with the Yankees, he may be looking at a one-year “prove it” contract, though his underlying metrics suggest a rebound.
- Luke Weaver: He has performed like a closer for much of the season and will be paid accordingly this winter if he can limit home runs.
- Kyle Finnegan: The right-hander has been dominant for Detroit since the trade deadline and is setting himself up for a strong payday.
- Brad Keller: The former starter has excelled as a reclamation project in the Cubs’ bullpen and, at 30, is one of the younger relievers available.
- Hoby Milner: The 34-year-old lefty’s sinker is nearly unhittable, and he is posting his fourth straight year of elite underlying numbers.
8. How will the industry value Bo Bichette?
Bo Bichette has returned to form offensively, posting a slash line of .310/.354/.478 that mirrors his impressive career numbers. It’s an ideal platform season for a free agent. The questions surrounding his value stem from his defense, where publicly available metrics and independent team surveys rank him as the worst shortstop in baseball. This could be the difference between a $250 million-plus contract and something less. However, Bichette is only 27, he is a consistently elite hitter, and a potential move to third base could mitigate defensive concerns. In an era with a shortage of pure hitters, the market is unlikely to leave him behind.
9. Which other infielders will have fruitful winters?
Gleyber Torres has reinvented himself with the Tigers, displaying elite plate discipline and a .364 on-base percentage. At 29, he is hitting the market at the perfect time.
First baseman Josh Naylor, 28, is one of the youngest players in the class. He remains a bat-to-ball specialist with enough power and surprising speed (23 stolen bases) to be a productive regular.
At 34, Eugenio Suárez offers a veteran power bat. After a slow start in Seattle, he has rebounded to become a league-average hitter and a beloved clubhouse presence. He could be an attractive, shorter-term alternative for teams priced out of the top of the market.
Others to watch include catcher J.T. Realmuto, first baseman Rhys Hoskins, and utility-man Willi Castro.
10. Why is the three-time batting champion so intriguing?
Luis Arraez presents one of the most fascinating free-agent cases in years. He is an exceptional contact hitter, striking out just 17 times in 587 plate appearances this season. This skill led him to three consecutive batting titles before his average dipped to .285 this year.
However, the 28-year-old offers minimal power, below-average defense, and little speed or baserunning value. His free agency serves as a litmus test for the value of pure bat-to-ball skills in modern baseball. While teams prioritize on-base and slugging percentages, Arraez’s elite ability to put the ball in play is a rare asset. How much a team will pay for that specific skill set remains one of the offseason’s most compelling questions.
