As baseball’s postseason chase enters its final stretch, the window is closing for players to make their case for individual honors. With the regular season winding down, some awards races are all but decided, while others remain tightly contested.
Most Valuable Player
American League
Leading Contenders: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees vs. Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners
This race is closer than betting odds might suggest. While Judge boasts a superior offensive season with better percentages across the board and a significant edge in OPS+ and wRC+, Raleigh’s historic campaign at a premium defensive position keeps him firmly in contention.
Judge leads all AL hitters in both win probability added and championship probability added, creating more runs while using fewer outs than Raleigh. However, Raleigh’s value extends beyond the batter’s box. As a catcher, he plays a more demanding defensive role and is ranked by FanGraphs as the fourth-most valuable defender in the league.
Narrative also favors the Mariners’ backstop. Raleigh has already shattered the single-season home run record for a catcher and is approaching the all-time mark for switch-hitters, set by Mickey Mantle. If he reaches 60 home runs while leading his team to the playoffs, voters may find his historic achievement impossible to ignore.
Raleigh’s performance could still falter; his batting average has dipped since the All-Star break, and the physical toll of catching may be a factor. Should he struggle down the stretch and the Mariners miss the postseason, a strong finish from Judge could easily sway voters back in his favor.
Prediction: Raleigh will break Mantle’s record and do just enough to hold off Judge in a tight race.
National League
Leading Contenders: Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Juan Soto, New York Mets
Shohei Ohtani has a commanding lead in the NL MVP race, positioning himself for a third consecutive award. His performance combines elite power, comparable to Kyle Schwarber, with the on-base mastery of Juan Soto. While Soto has been surprisingly prolific on the basepaths, Ohtani has lapped the field in runs scored.
Furthermore, Ohtani has contributed 36 innings of excellent pitching, adding defensive value that Soto and Schwarber, primarily a designated hitter, lack. Advanced metrics confirm his dominance, as Ohtani leads the NL in both win probability added and championship probability added, with Soto ranking second in both categories.
With a nearly insurmountable lead, Ohtani appears destined for his fourth MVP trophy. Only Barry Bonds, who won seven times including four straight from 2001-2004, has won the award more often. An injury to Trea Turner has also removed a potential late-surging challenger from the field.
Prediction: Ohtani will win in a landslide.
Cy Young Award
American League
Leading Contenders: Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers vs. Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox
While the betting markets heavily favor Tarik Skubal, advanced metrics suggest this race remains competitive. Both left-handers have gained momentum as the season has progressed. Over the past month, Crochet has posted a 3.00 ERA with an astounding 40-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Yet, Skubal has been even better, with a 1.04 ERA over the same period.
Skubal holds a significant advantage in both major versions of Wins Above Replacement (WAR) and leads the AL in championship probability added. Crochet has a narrow edge in win probability added, but the overall statistical profile favors the Tigers’ ace.
The race is Skubal’s to lose. He must maintain his exceptional performance, as the margins are slim enough for Crochet to overtake him with a dominant finish. Every remaining start is crucial for both pitchers.
Prediction: Skubal has shown no signs of slowing down and should hold on to win the award.
National League
Leading Contenders: Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cristopher Sanchez, Philadelphia Phillies
The NL Cy Young race presents a fascinating contrast: betting markets view Paul Skenes as a lock, while performance metrics show a dead heat with Cristopher Sanchez.
Skenes’ sub-2.00 ERA is the standout number likely driving his favorite status. However, his edge over Sanchez in Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) is narrow, and their workloads are similar, explaining their comparable WAR values. Skenes holds an advantage in win probability added, but because he plays for a last-place team, Sanchez’s league-leading championship probability added—a measure of contribution to a contender’s title hopes—gives the Phillies starter a contextual edge.
Should both frontrunners falter, the surging Freddy Peralta of the Brewers has an outside chance to enter the conversation. For now, Skenes and Sanchez have separated themselves from the pack by combining high quality with significant innings.
Prediction: Skenes’ dominant ERA will ultimately win over voters. If he maintains his workload and keeps his ERA below 2.00, he will be difficult to beat.
Rookie of the Year
American League
Leading Contenders: Nick Kurtz, Athletics vs. Roman Anthony, Boston Red Sox
This race is effectively over. Athletics first baseman Nick Kurtz was already the heavy favorite before an oblique injury sidelined his closest competitor, Roman Anthony, likely for the remainder of the season.
Kurtz is now chasing history. His 1.021 OPS ranks among the top five all-time for a rookie, and his 177 OPS+ is on pace to set a new modern record. His season was highlighted by a historic four-homer, six-hit game on July 25 that cemented his place in the minds of voters. On a per-162-game pace, the 22-year-old is projected for 47 home runs, 118 RBIs, and 123 runs.
It is difficult to envision any scenario where Kurtz does not become the Athletics’ first Rookie of the Year since 2009.
Prediction: Kurtz will win by a unanimous vote.
National League
Leading Contenders: Isaac Collins, Milwaukee Brewers vs. Drake Baldwin, Atlanta Braves
In stark contrast to the American League, the NL Rookie of the Year race remains wide open. While metrics slightly favor Isaac Collins, the betting markets have recently installed Cubs pitcher Cade Horton as the favorite, followed by Drake Baldwin.
The Brewers have fielded the most impactful rookie class on a contending team, with three players in the top 10 of rookie value. Collins stands as the leading representative of that group. However, Horton is making a powerful late-season push, posting a 0.77 ERA over his last nine starts. His recent dominance has captured the attention of oddsmakers and voters alike. Another name to watch is Mets pitcher Nolan McLean, whose 1.42 ERA in his first few starts has already vaulted him into the top 10.
Prediction: If Horton maintains anything close to his recent blistering pace, he will win the award. Otherwise, a Brewer, likely Collins, is the most deserving candidate.
Manager of the Year
American League
Leading Contenders: A.J. Hinch, Detroit Tigers vs. John Schneider, Toronto Blue Jays
The AL Manager of the Year award appears to be a toss-up between A.J. Hinch and John Schneider. Both have guided their teams to excellent seasons, and the race is too close to call.
The deciding factor will likely be which team secures the American League’s top overall seed. Hinch’s Tigers have a firm grip on the AL Central, while Schneider’s Blue Jays face a tougher fight to hold off the Yankees and Red Sox in the AL East.
Prediction: The Tigers will secure the top seed, giving Hinch the edge he needs to win his first Manager of the Year award.
National League
Leading Contenders: Pat Murphy, Milwaukee Brewers vs. Clayton McCullough, Miami Marlins
Pat Murphy is the clear frontrunner to win his second consecutive NL Manager of the Year award. His Brewers have significantly outperformed preseason projections and are on track to enter the playoffs as the top seed. The team has excelled in close contests, posting a 26-17 record in one-run games, and has successfully integrated a large and productive rookie class.
The only conceivable way this outcome changes is if the Brewers suffer a late-season collapse while the Cubs surge to steal the NL Central title. Barring that unlikely scenario, Murphy is poised for another victory.
Prediction: Murphy will win by a comfortable margin.
