Nuclear microreactor developer Oklo has experienced a volatile journey on the stock market since its public debut in May 2024 through a SPAC merger. After an initial opening at $15.50, the stock fell to a low of $5.59 before surging to approximately $83 per share, turning a hypothetical $5,000 investment at its lowest point into more than $74,200.
The company has attracted significant investor attention, partly due to its former chairman, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, and its ambitious goal to reshape the nuclear energy sector with its compact Aurora microreactors.
Unlike traditional nuclear reactors that generate around 1,000 MWe, a single Aurora unit produces 1.5 MWe. However, these units are designed to be scalable, with multiple microreactors linkable to generate 15 to 100 MWe. This flexibility makes them suitable for deployment in remote or off-grid locations where large-scale plants are not feasible.
Oklo’s technology utilizes metallic uranium fuel pellets, which are denser, more resistant to high temperatures, and less expensive to produce than the uranium dioxide pellets used in conventional reactors. The company states its microreactors can operate for up to a decade without refueling, compared to the two-year cycle of traditional plants, by reprocessing and recycling fuel in a closed loop.
Despite the technological promise, Oklo faces significant regulatory and operational hurdles. While the U.S. Department of Energy approved a permit for its first reactor site in Idaho in 2019, the company is still awaiting a combined license from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Commercial deployment is not anticipated until late 2027 or early 2028. Similarly, a contract to build a small reactor for the U.S. Air Force at Eielson Air Force Base in Alaska is contingent on NRC approval, with revenue not expected until the 2027-2030 timeframe.
Financially, Oklo is a pre-revenue company with substantial losses, reporting net losses of $32 million in 2023 and $74 million in 2024. Analysts project another loss of $75 million in 2025. While the company held $227 million in cash and equivalents at the end of June, it has relied on secondary offerings for funding, increasing its outstanding shares by 21% since its public debut.
With a market capitalization of $12.2 billion, Oklo’s valuation is considered highly speculative for a pre-revenue company. This valuation is over 870 times the $14 million in revenue analysts forecast for 2027, the earliest year it may begin operations.
Proponents believe Oklo could benefit from the growing energy demands of the AI and cloud computing industries. However, it faces competition from small modular reactor (SMR) manufacturer NuScale Power and established industry giants like Westinghouse, which plans to pilot its own eVinci microreactor by 2029. Given its current valuation and the long road to commercialization, the company remains a high-risk, long-term prospect.
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