The Atlantic Coast Conference championship matchup will be decided in the final week of the regular season, with six teams still vying for a spot in the title game in Charlotte.
Throughout much of the college football season, the top of the ACC standings has been a logjam. Now, entering Week 14, Virginia, SMU, Pitt, Miami, Georgia Tech, and Duke all remain in contention.
The stakes are high, as the eventual ACC champion is likely to be the conference’s sole representative in the 12-team College Football Playoff. Miami is currently the highest-ranked ACC team in the CFP Top 25, but the Hurricanes face a challenging path to the championship game.
Virginia and SMU have the most direct routes to Charlotte following Georgia Tech’s loss to Pitt last week. Here is a breakdown of the scenarios for each contender.
ACC Championship Scenarios
Virginia (9-2, 6-1 ACC)
- How they clinch: Virginia secures a spot with a win over Virginia Tech. The Cavaliers can also clinch if Pitt loses to Miami.
SMU (8-3, 6-1 ACC)
- How they clinch: The Mustangs reach the title game with a win over Cal. Like Virginia, SMU can also advance if Pitt loses to Miami.
Pitt (8-3, 6-1 ACC)
- How they clinch: The Panthers, who are on a six-game conference winning streak, must first defeat Miami. They would also need either SMU to lose to Cal or Virginia to lose to Virginia Tech. If Pitt, SMU, and Virginia all win, the Panthers would be eliminated from the three-way tie due to a prior loss to Louisville.
Georgia Tech (9-2, 6-2 ACC)
- How they clinch: After losing to Pitt, the Yellow Jackets no longer control their destiny. Their only path requires both Virginia to lose to Virginia Tech and SMU to lose to Cal. In that scenario, Georgia Tech would win a head-to-head tiebreaker involving common opponent Wake Forest, whom they defeated while both Virginia and SMU lost to them.
Miami (9-2, 5-2 ACC)
- How they clinch: The Hurricanes need a victory over Pitt combined with two of the following three outcomes: a Duke loss to Wake Forest, an SMU loss to Cal, or a Virginia loss to Virginia Tech.
Duke (6-5, 5-2 ACC)
- How they clinch: Despite five overall losses, the Blue Devils can still make the title game. They must beat Wake Forest and also need either a Pitt loss to Miami or an SMU loss to Cal. If the remaining ACC favorites win their games but SMU falls to Cal, Duke would clinch a spot due to a higher conference opponent winning percentage than Miami, SMU, Pitt, and Georgia Tech.
Official ACC Tiebreaker Rules
Two-Team Tie
A. Head-to-head competition.
B. Win percentage against all common opponents.
C. Win percentage against common opponents based on their order of finish.
D. Combined win percentage of conference opponents.
E. Higher ranking by the Team Rating Score metric (SportSource Analytics).
F. A random draw.
Three (or More) Team Tie
A. Combined head-to-head win percentage among tied teams if all are common opponents.
B. If not all are common opponents, the team that defeated each of the other tied teams advances. If one team lost to all other tied teams, it is eliminated.
C. Win percentage against all common opponents.
D. Win percentage against common opponents based on their order of finish.
E. Combined win percentage of conference opponents.
F. Higher ranking by the Team Rating Score metric (SportSource Analytics).
G. A random draw.
