On Sunday, Paris Saint-Germain and Chelsea will face off at MetLife Stadium in the final of the inaugural 32-team FIFA Club World Cup. After a month-long competition in the United States—at times marred by low attendance, weather delays, extreme heat, and concerns over player burnout—either the UEFA Champions League winners or the Premier League giants will be crowned world champions.
Luis Enrique’s PSG arrive seeking to complete a quadruple, having already secured the Ligue 1, Coupe de France, and Champions League titles this year. Meanwhile, Enzo Maresca’s Chelsea hope to lift the Club World Cup to complete their collection of every major trophy, adding to their UEFA Conference League victory in May.
Who are the favorites?
Paris Saint-Germain are arguably the best team in the world. Their 5-0 demolition of Inter Milan in the Champions League final was the largest victory margin in the history of the fixture. They reached this final by overwhelming Real Madrid 4-0 in a semifinal that could have been an even heavier defeat for the LaLiga champions.
In contrast, Chelsea won UEFA’s third-tier competition and only secured Champions League qualification on the final day of the Premier League season. While there appears to be a significant disparity between the two clubs, Maresca’s side has grown throughout the tournament and is now just 90 minutes from a world title. PSG are expected to win, but Chelsea’s resilience suggests the match will be closer than many anticipate.
How did PSG get here?
PSG have been the standout team of the tournament, delivering dominant victories against European heavyweights Atlético Madrid (4-0), Bayern Munich (2-0), and Real Madrid (4-0). Their campaign wasn’t flawless, however; a 1-0 group stage loss to Copa Libertadores champions Botafogo demonstrated their vulnerability, though Luis Enrique had rested key players including Ousmane Dembélé, João Neves, Fabián Ruiz, and Marquinhos for that match.
The French champions qualified for the tournament based on their consistent Champions League performances over a four-year period, but their status as the team to beat was cemented by their European title win in May. Their form has been so formidable that Luis Enrique could afford to substitute Dembélé, Ruiz, Désiré Doué, and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia during the semifinal to conserve their energy for the final.
How did Chelsea get here?
Chelsea’s journey to the final has been less straightforward. After a 3-1 group-stage defeat to Flamengo, they needed a victory in their final match against Esperance Sportive de Tunis to advance. In the knockout stages, Chelsea benefited from a favorable draw after Bayern Munich’s surprise loss to Benfica, allowing the Blues to face the Portuguese side instead of the Bundesliga giants. They won that round-of-16 match 4-1 after extra time before defeating Brazilian clubs Palmeiras (2-1) and Fluminense (2-0) to book their place in the final.
Chelsea earned their spot by winning the Champions League in 2021. Their qualification, based on an achievement from four years ago under a different coach and ownership, underscores how much the club has changed in the intervening seasons.
PSG key players to watch
PSG’s success is built on a foundation of elite individual talent fused with a relentless team ethic. The undisputed star is forward Ousmane Dembélé, who is now the clear favorite to win this year’s Ballon d’Or. The 28-year-old has overcome previous concerns about his fitness and consistency, scoring 35 goals and providing 14 assists in 52 appearances this season. After a difficult spell at Barcelona, his 2023 move to Paris has seen him realize his immense potential.
Even if Chelsea manage to contain Dembélé, they must also contend with wingers Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Désiré Doué, a formidable midfield trio of Fabián Ruiz, Vitinha, and João Neves, and the world’s best full-back pairing in Achraf Hakimi and Nuno Mendes.
Chelsea key players to watch
While Cole Palmer remains Chelsea’s primary creative force, the recent arrival of João Pedro has given the team a sharper edge in attack. The £55 million summer signing from Brighton & Hove Albion joined the squad mid-tournament but made an immediate impact, scoring twice against former club Fluminense in the semifinal. With Palmer’s influence, Pedro’s finishing, and other new additions like striker Liam Delap and winger Jamie Gittens, manager Enzo Maresca has a variety of attacking options.
However, a crucial factor for Chelsea will be the fitness of midfielder Moisés Caicedo, who left the semifinal with an ankle injury. His absence would make the task of disrupting PSG’s dominant midfield almost impossible.
The tactical battle between the coaches
Luis Enrique’s PSG operates in a 4-3-3 formation built around the midfield axis of Neves, Vitinha, and Ruiz. The primary challenge for Enzo Maresca is how to disrupt this unit, as his preferred 4-2-3-1 system will leave Chelsea outnumbered in the center of the pitch. Sticking with a two-man midfield would be incredibly risky, particularly if Caicedo is unavailable.
Beyond the midfield, PSG’s attacking full-backs, Hakimi and Mendes, combined with wingers Doué and Kvaratskhelia, will pose a severe threat to Chelsea’s Marc Cucurella and Reece James. Both Chelsea full-backs prefer to attack but will likely be forced into defensive roles to nullify PSG’s width.
Why are PSG so good?
Manager Luis Enrique successfully rebuilt the team following Kylian Mbappé’s departure to Real Madrid, creating a side defined by collective hard work rather than individual brilliance. This PSG team is mesmerizing in possession but grounds its fluid attacking play in a rock-solid work rate.
A FIFA statistic from the semifinal perfectly illustrates this: Real Madrid’s average ball recovery time was 45 seconds, while PSG’s was just 23. This single data point encapsulates their dominance; the world’s most talented team is also its hardest working.
How can Chelsea win?
The challenge facing Chelsea is immense. On paper, it would be difficult to justify selecting any Chelsea player over their PSG counterpart in a combined XI. However, football is often unpredictable, and Chelsea have a slim but viable path to victory.
To succeed, they must score early, outwork PSG across the pitch, and win the midfield battle. They will also need to eliminate the defensive errors and lapses in concentration that have plagued them. Even if they achieve all of this, an upset will likely require a moment of individual genius from Palmer or João Pedro.
Who will win?
It has to be PSG. They are, by some distance, the best team in the world—perhaps the most dominant side since Pep Guardiola’s Barcelona. In three matches against strong European opposition at this tournament, they have scored 10 goals and conceded none.
Chelsea are a young, developing team under a new coach, and this final may prove a step too far. PSG operate on another level and are poised to win comfortably.
Prediction: PSG 3-0 Chelsea
