The cost of a classic Thanksgiving dinner will be lower this year, marking the third consecutive year of price declines for the holiday feast. According to the American Farm Bureau Federation’s 40th annual survey, a meal for 10 people will average $55.18, or about $5.52 per person.
This represents a 5% decrease from last year. However, three years of falling prices have not fully offset the dramatic surge that led to a record-high cost of $64.05 in 2022.
A significant drop in the price of turkey, the traditional centerpiece, is the primary driver behind the lower overall cost. The average price for a 16-pound frozen turkey is $21.50, or $1.34 per pound, down more than 16% from a year ago. While wholesale prices for fresh turkey have risen, grocery stores are using promotions to attract consumers, resulting in lower retail prices for the holiday bird. Data from the USDA Agricultural Marketing Service indicates that prices for whole frozen turkeys continued to fall in early November.
“It’s encouraging to see some relief in the price of turkeys, as it is typically the most expensive part of the meal,” said AFBF Economist Faith Parum, Ph.D. “Farmers are still working to rebuild turkey flocks that were devastated by avian influenza, but overall demand has also fallen. The combination will help ensure turkey will remain an affordable option for families celebrating Thanksgiving.”
The survey’s shopping list, designed to feed 10 people, includes turkey, stuffing, sweet potatoes, rolls with butter, peas, cranberries, a vegetable tray, and pumpkin pie with whipped cream.
Prices fell for half of the items surveyed. Lower wheat prices contributed to the decreased cost of dinner rolls and stuffing mix.
Conversely, some items saw sharp price increases. The cost of a veggie tray is up by more than 61%, and sweet potatoes are up 37%. These increases are partly due to natural disasters, such as hurricane damage in North Carolina, the nation’s largest sweet potato producer. Fresh produce prices are often volatile, and modest supply-chain disruptions from weather, labor shortages, or transportation delays can trigger significant short-term price spikes. Rising farm wages have also contributed to higher produce costs. It is important to note that since vegetables are traditionally low-cost items, even a small price increase can result in a large percentage change.
“We are blessed to live in a country that is capable of producing such an abundant food supply, and for that we should be thankful,” said AFBF President Zippy Duvall. He acknowledged that despite the modest meal cost decline, food prices remain a concern for many families. “We lost 15,000 farms last year because of factors including historically low crop prices, high supply costs and trade uncertainty, which continue to squeeze farmers and ranchers… We urge Congress to address the challenging economic conditions facing farmers to ensure farm families can continue growing the food we all rely on.”
Reflecting evolving traditions, the Farm Bureau survey also priced an expanded menu including boneless ham, Russet potatoes, and frozen green beans. Adding these items increases the total meal cost by $21.91, to $77.09.
This year’s national average was calculated from pricing data gathered by volunteer shoppers across all 50 states and Puerto Rico. To ensure consistency, the survey’s classic menu has remained unchanged since it began in 1986.
Individual Item Prices:
- 16-pound turkey: $21.50 (down 16.3%)
- 14-ounce cubed stuffing mix: $3.71 (down 9%)
- 1 dozen dinner rolls: $3.56 (down 14.6%)
- 2 frozen pie crusts: $3.37 (down 0.8%)
- 12-ounce bag of fresh cranberries: $2.28 (down 2.8%)
- Miscellaneous meal ingredients: $3.61 (down 4.7%)
- 30-ounce can of pumpkin pie mix: $4.16 (up 0.1%)
- Half pint of whipping cream: $1.87 (up 3.2%)
- 1 gallon of whole milk: $3.73 (up 16.3%)
- 1 pound of frozen peas: $2.03 (up 17.2%)
- 3 pounds of sweet potatoes: $4.00 (up 37%)
- 1-pound veggie tray (carrots & celery): $1.36 (up 61.3%)
Regional Cost Averages:
The survey revealed significant regional price differences. The classic Thanksgiving meal was most affordable in the South ($50.01), followed by the Midwest ($54.38), the Northeast ($60.82), and the West ($61.75). The expanded menu followed a similar pattern, costing the least in the South ($71.20) and the most in the West ($84.97).
