A significant nor’easter is forecast to develop off the Southeast coast this weekend, threatening parts of the East Coast with heavy rain, powerful winds, and coastal flooding.
The storm system is expected to form Saturday along a potent cold front that will stall over the region, bringing an end to the crisp, autumnal weather that followed it. The Weather Prediction Center has warned that this could become a “full-fledged” and “rather significant” coastal storm, with impacts stretching from Florida through the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic.
While nor’easters are often associated with winter snow, these powerful coastal storms—named for their northeasterly winds—can occur year-round and are most common between September and April.
The storm’s exact strength and duration remain uncertain, which will determine the severity of its impacts. A stronger, slow-moving system would bring days of sustained rain, high winds, and prolonged coastal flooding. Regardless of its development, the nor’easter will generate rough surf, creating dangerous swimming conditions and contributing to significant beach erosion. In Buxton, North Carolina, intense wave action from recent storms has already caused at least seven unoccupied homes to collapse into the Atlantic since September 30.
Forecasters are currently monitoring two primary scenarios. The first sees the nor’easter strengthening on Sunday while lingering off the coast of the Carolinas through at least Tuesday, bringing up to six inches of rain and persistent gusty winds. The second scenario involves the storm tracking northward, lessening the duration of impacts on the Southeast but bringing rain and wind to the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts.
North Carolina is expected to bear the brunt of the storm’s disruptions. Eastern parts of the state could receive several inches of rain from Friday into early next week, with localized flash flooding possible. Wind gusts may reach 50 mph in the Outer Banks, with 20 to 40 mph gusts possible for the eastern mainland, peaking from Saturday into Sunday. This combination is also expected to trigger a multi-day coastal flooding event for the Outer Banks and adjacent shorelines.
Once the storm system dissipates or moves away, the region is expected to have a brief respite before another wave of unseasonable heat arrives late next week.
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