A predictive data model from SportsLine has identified several high-value NFL player props for Week 13, highlighting market overreactions to recent performances and difficult matchups. Among its top selections are wagers on 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy, Panthers running back Rico Dowdle, and Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson. A parlay combining these three picks offers odds of +578.
Brock Purdy, 49ers: Over 197.5 passing yards (-115)
Despite facing the Cleveland Browns’ second-ranked pass defense, the model projects a strong performance from Brock Purdy. The 49ers quarterback has a passing prop of just 197.5 yards, influenced by the tough matchup and a modest 193-yard outing last week. However, Purdy had thrown for at least 200 yards in his three previous starts. The Browns’ defense also recently surrendered 285 passing yards to Geno Smith, well above his season average. With a healthy receiving corps that includes George Kittle, Jauan Jennings, and Christian McCaffrey, the model forecasts Purdy to throw for 244 yards, comfortably clearing the current line.
Rico Dowdle, Panthers: Over 59.5 rushing yards (-114)
The model anticipates a rebound for Panthers running back Rico Dowdle against the Rams. Although Dowdle has fallen short of this mark in three straight games, he previously rushed for over 130 yards in three of four contests. After receiving only six carries in last week’s low-scoring game, Carolina may look to re-establish its running game. While the Rams possess the NFL’s top-ranked scoring defense, they allowed 4.2 yards per carry to Tampa Bay’s running backs last week. The model projects an increased workload for Dowdle, resulting in 76 rushing yards on Sunday.
Justin Jefferson, Vikings: Over 54.5 receiving yards (-114)
Justin Jefferson, the NFL’s all-time leader in receiving yards per game (93.5), faces a unique challenge as the Vikings start undrafted rookie Max Brosmer at quarterback against the Seahawks. This uncertainty has pushed Jefferson’s receiving prop down to 54.5 yards. However, Jefferson has a history of producing with inconsistent quarterback play. The model suggests the rookie may heavily target his star receiver, projecting Jefferson to finish with 66 yards. This identifies the current low number as a significant value opportunity for arguably the league’s best receiver.
