In the third week of The Athletic’s Premier League predictions challenge, the subscribers are setting a formidable pace, thanks in part to a dramatic goal at St James’ Park on Monday.
When 16-year-old Rio Ngumoha scored a stoppage-time winner for Liverpool, the celebrations extended over 3,000 miles to Rhode Island, USA, where Sunderland fan Derek was ecstatic. Ngumoha’s goal not only condemned Sunderland’s arch-rivals Newcastle to a 3-2 home defeat but also extended the subscribers’ lead in the predictions table.
Each week, a subscriber joins journalist Oli Kay, a predictive algorithm, and six-year-old Wilfred to forecast the Premier League results. Three points are awarded for a correct scoreline, one for a correct result, and a bonus point is given for any unique winning prediction.
Derek secured a bonus point for being the only one to call Liverpool’s victory, correctly predicted the Crystal Palace 1-1 Nottingham Forest scoreline, and called another five results correctly. His nine-point total matched the week-one haul from subscriber Vaageesh, pushing the subscribers three points clear at the top.
Bonus points were also awarded to Oli for predicting Burnley’s victory over Sunderland and to the algorithm for its precise Fulham 1-1 Manchester United forecast. Meanwhile, Wilfred was denied a four-point haul when Ngumoha’s late goal overturned the 2-2 scoreline he had predicted.
This week’s subscriber is Katherine, a 43-year-old Chelsea fan from London, who has a high standard to maintain.
Match of the Week: Chelsea vs Fulham
Katherine, this week’s subscriber, is confident Chelsea can overcome a solid Fulham side. “The feeling of optimism going into this season has been through the roof and scoring five goals without Cole Palmer last weekend only adds fuel to that fire,” she says. “I’m confident we’ll have too much for them.”
- Katherine’s Prediction: Chelsea 3-1 Fulham
Oli Kay also favours a home win, though with less certainty. He notes Chelsea’s unusual start of four consecutive London derbies and suggests this match could be more of a battle than their recent 5-1 win at West Ham. Even without the injured Palmer, he expects Chelsea to secure the victory.
- Oli’s Prediction: Chelsea 2-1 Fulham
Oli’s Other Predictions
Manchester United vs Burnley
Despite new additions, Manchester United have just one point from two games and suffered a shock Carabao Cup loss to Grimsby Town. With only 28 points from 29 games under Ruben Amorim, early-season optimism could quickly fade. Victory is essential ahead of tough fixtures against Manchester City and Chelsea after the international break.
- Prediction: Man Utd 2-0 Burnley
Sunderland vs Brentford
Sunderland’s return to the top flight is a positive story, but they now face a Brentford side strengthened by Jordan Henderson. The former Liverpool captain made an immediate impact on his first start, and his presence means Keith Andrews’ team will be a tougher opponent than they appeared in week one.
- Prediction: Sunderland 1-1 Brentford
Tottenham Hotspur vs Bournemouth
Tottenham’s strong start under Thomas Frank has generated a familiar sense of new-manager optimism. While similar feelings faded under Ange Postecoglou, there is a sense that this season’s upturn could prove more sustainable.
- Prediction: Tottenham 2-1 Bournemouth
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Everton
Prospects look bleak for Wolves. After a difficult summer, Vitor Pereira’s squad appears short on quality, whereas Everton will be energized by their recent victory and the additions of Jack Grealish and Tyler Dibling.
- Prediction: Wolves 0-1 Everton
Leeds United vs Newcastle United
This historic fixture evokes memories of a time when both clubs aimed for the top. After difficult periods, both are in a happier place, but Newcastle’s need for a first win of the season is pressing. Despite being depleted, they may have enough to edge it.
- Prediction: Leeds 1-2 Newcastle
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Manchester City
Manchester City’s performance last week suggested their new-look team is still finding its balance between freshness and familiarity. A more recognisable line-up and performance can be expected from Pep Guardiola’s side at Brighton.
- Prediction: Brighton 1-2 Man City
Nottingham Forest vs West Ham United
Nottingham Forest presents a stark contrast to a West Ham side that has looked poor in its opening two games. The Hammers appear to lack speed, identity, and cohesion, and their struggles could continue at the City Ground.
- Prediction: Nottm Forest 3-0 West Ham
Liverpool vs Arsenal
A clash between the two early title favourites comes unusually early in the season. While Liverpool have secured two wins, their performances have been unconvincing. Arsenal may be positioned to take advantage of the fact their rivals have not yet settled into their rhythm.
- Prediction: Liverpool 1-2 Arsenal
Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace
Aston Villa’s surprisingly slow start, having failed to score in their opening two games, puts pressure on them to secure a result at home. Crystal Palace’s two draws are respectable given their European commitments. A victory is crucial for Villa to kick-start their season, especially with PSR calculations looming ahead of the transfer deadline.
- Prediction: Aston Villa 2-1 Crystal Palace
