Chicago Bears at Cincinnati Bengals
- Projected Score: Bears 28, Bengals 26
- Over/Under: 54
- Win Probability: Bears 54%
- Must-Starts: D’Andre Swift, Ja’Marr Chase, Rome Odunze, Tee Higgins
The Bengals remain committed to a backfield committee, though Chase Brown’s role is expanding. In Week 8, he handled 12 carries and three targets on 31 snaps, while Samaje Perine saw nine carries and one target on 25 snaps. Brown’s stock is rising after consecutive games with over 100 scrimmage yards, highlighted by a two-touchdown performance last week. This elevates him to RB2 consideration against a Bears defense that has allowed eight touchdowns, 5.2 yards per carry, and a league-high 93% catch rate to running backs. However, Brown carries risk, having surpassed 13.1 fantasy points just once this season. Perine, despite a recent 100-yard game, has not exceeded 10 touches in any contest and should remain on fantasy benches.
Bears receiver Rome Odunze is expected to be shadowed by Bengals cornerback DJ Turner, who has effectively limited top wideouts this season, holding his assignments to an average of 9.5 fantasy points. Consequently, Odunze’s projection should be slightly downgraded. This matchup upgrades Chicago’s secondary receivers, as Cincinnati has allowed the fourth-most passing yards and touchdowns in the league.
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions
- Projected Score: Lions 28, Vikings 18
- Over/Under: 46
- Win Probability: Lions 85%
- Must-Starts: Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Justin Jefferson, Sam LaPorta
Aaron Jones returned from IR last week and immediately resumed lead-back duties for Minnesota, playing 53% of the snaps. In a low-volume offensive game, he handled five carries and four targets. Meanwhile, Jordan Mason was limited to four carries and one target on 16 snaps. This backfield projects as a committee, with Mason as the primary ball carrier and goal-line option and Jones serving as the main receiving back while still taking a share of the carries. However, Week 9 brings a difficult matchup against a Lions defense that has allowed the fewest yards and fourth-fewest fantasy points to running backs. With the Vikings as significant underdogs, Mason is off the fantasy radar, while Jones is a low-ceiling flex option.
Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers
- Projected Score: Packers 30, Panthers 18
- Over/Under: 48
- Win Probability: Packers 86%
- Must-Starts: Josh Jacobs, Tetairoa McMillan, Tucker Kraft
Jordan Love is coming off a 28.3-point fantasy performance, his best since Week 17 of 2023. While Love now has two top-five fantasy outings this season, they are his only finishes inside the top 10, and he has been QB16 or worse four times. His passing production has been inconsistent, and while he is running more than last season, he has produced just 109 yards and no touchdowns on the ground. Love remains a solid QB2 and is a viable streaming option this week against a Carolina defense that has allowed 22-plus fantasy points to quarterbacks in four of its last five games.
Los Angeles Chargers at Tennessee Titans
- Projected Score: Chargers 29, Titans 17
- Over/Under: 46.3
- Win Probability: Chargers 88%
- Must-Starts: Justin Herbert, Kimani Vidal, Ladd McConkey, Keenan Allen
Quentin Johnston is seeking a rebound after being held without a target in Week 8. His usage has declined, as he played just 53% of the offensive snaps after averaging 86% in his first six games. After a hot start where he averaged 19.9 fantasy points, Johnston has totaled just 10 targets and 17.9 points over his past three games. He remains a big-play threat, but the dip in usage makes him a much riskier start.
The good news for the entire Chargers receiving corps is a highly favorable matchup. The Titans defense is allowing a league-high 75% catch rate and the second-highest yards per target (9.7) to receivers. Tennessee is also shorthanded in the secondary with L’Jarius Sneed on IR and after trading slot corner Roger McCreary. This creates a significant value boost for Ladd McConkey, Keenan Allen, and Johnston.
Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots
- Projected Score: Patriots 27, Falcons 16
- Over/Under: 43.7
- Win Probability: Patriots 85%
- Must-Starts: Drake Maye, Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Stefon Diggs
Kayshon Boutte has scored four touchdowns in his past three games, a notable streak after he found the end zone only four times in his first 25 career contests. Despite this recent success, Boutte is not yet a reliable flex option. He has surpassed five targets only once this season, back in Week 1, and his production is due for regression. He ranks fifth among receivers in touchdowns but 58th in targets, making him a boom-or-bust flier for deep leagues.
If Drake London returns from injury, he is a candidate for shadow coverage from Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez. In Week 8, Gonzalez shadowed Jerry Jeudy and held him without a catch. No receiver has reached 18 fantasy points against New England this season, so expectations for London should be lowered, especially with the potential shadow.
San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants
- Projected Score: 49ers 26, Giants 25
- Over/Under: 51.3
- Win Probability: 49ers 52%
- Must-Starts: Christian McCaffrey, Tyrone Tracy Jr., Wan’Dale Robinson, George Kittle
With Cam Skattebo out for the season with an ankle injury, Tyrone Tracy Jr. will step in as the Giants’ lead back. After Skattebo exited last week’s game, Tracy dominated the backfield snaps and touches over Devin Singletary. Last season, in a similar role over 11 games, Tracy played 67% of the snaps and averaged 13.2 carries and 3.5 targets per contest, ranking 23rd among running backs in fantasy points per game. Now in a more potent offense, Tracy is on the RB2 radar, especially against a struggling 49ers defense that has allowed 26.5 fantasy points per game to running backs over its last five games.
Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers
- Projected Score: Colts 31, Steelers 25
- Over/Under: 56.4
- Win Probability: Colts 70%
- Must-Starts: Daniel Jones, Jonathan Taylor, Jaylen Warren, DK Metcalf, Michael Pittman Jr., Tyler Warren
Daniel Jones has established a solid floor recently, scoring over 22 fantasy points in three straight games, and should be locked into lineups this week. He has thrown for multiple touchdowns in four consecutive games and faces a struggling Pittsburgh defense that has surrendered the most completions, most passing yards, and second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Both Joe Flacco and Jordan Love posted over 26 fantasy points against the Steelers in the past two weeks.
This matchup also provides a significant boost for Colts receivers. Although Pittsburgh’s defense looks good on paper, it has allowed the most catches and yards to the position this season. Michael Pittman Jr. is a strong start, while Josh Downs and Alec Pierce are intriguing sleepers for deeper leagues.
Denver Broncos at Houston Texans
- Projected Score: Broncos 22, Texans 22
- Over/Under: 43.8
- Win Probability: Broncos 52%
- Must-Starts: Nico Collins, Courtland Sutton
Houston cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. is likely to shadow Courtland Sutton this week. Earlier this season, Stingley effectively limited top receivers like Davante Adams and Mike Evans. While Sutton has produced even when shadowed, this matchup warrants a slight downgrade, though he remains a WR2/3. Denver’s secondary receivers should be avoided against a Texans defense that has allowed a league-low 56% catch rate to the position.
On the other side, Nico Collins will benefit from avoiding shadow coverage from Pat Surtain II, who is injured. However, the matchup is still challenging. Denver’s pass defense ranks third in EPA and has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers, with no receiver topping 20 fantasy points against them all season. Collins and the rest of the Houston passing game should be downgraded slightly.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Las Vegas Raiders
- Projected Score: Jaguars 23, Raiders 18
- Over/Under: 40.2
- Win Probability: Jaguars 67%
- Must-Starts: Ashton Jeanty, Travis Etienne Jr., Brian Thomas Jr., Brock Bowers
In his last game, Travis Hunter had a breakout performance, setting career highs with eight receptions for 101 yards, a touchdown, and 13 targets. Most encouraging was his usage, as Hunter played a career-high 86% of the offensive snaps. With Jacksonville seemingly committed to his development on offense, he has become a viable WR3.
All Jaguars receivers are upgraded this week against a Raiders defense that has yielded the fourth-most catches and fantasy points to the position. Brian Thomas Jr. should remain locked into lineups, and the aforementioned Hunter also makes for a solid starter.
New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams
- Projected Score: Rams 26, Saints 12
- Over/Under: 38
- Win Probability: Rams 91%
- Must-Starts: Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, Chris Olave
Despite being the lead back for New Orleans, Alvin Kamara is difficult to trust in lineups. In the Saints’ struggling offense, Kamara has not scored more than 13.0 fantasy points since Week 2 and has not found the end zone since the season opener. His production as a rusher has been minimal, with under 32 yards in four straight games, and his role in the passing game has diminished significantly. His 11% target share is nearly half his career average. Facing a Rams defense that has allowed only one running back touchdown all season, Kamara is no more than a back-end RB2.
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills
- Projected Score: Chiefs 28, Bills 26
- Over/Under: 53.8
- Win Probability: Chiefs 58%
- Must-Starts: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, James Cook III, Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce
Khalil Shakir’s fantasy stock is trending up after he posted a 6-88-1 receiving line against Carolina. His target share has increased from 15.5% in Weeks 1-3 to 26.7% over his last four games, a rate closer to his 2024 mark. While his current touchdown pace may be unsustainable, Shakir has reemerged as a primary target for Josh Allen. This volume is enough to position him as a WR3, even in a tough matchup against a Chiefs defense that has allowed the second-fewest yards to receivers this season.
Washington Commanders at Seattle Seahawks
- Projected Score: Seahawks 26, Commanders 25
- Over/Under: 51.2
- Win Probability: Seahawks 55%
- Must-Starts: Jayden Daniels, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Deebo Samuel
It has been a struggle for rookie running back Jacory Croskey-Merritt. Despite taking over lead-back duties in Washington, he has failed to clear 6.0 fantasy points in three consecutive games. Week 9 presents a formidable challenge against a Seattle defense that has allowed the second-fewest rushing yards, a league-low 3.0 yards per carry, and only two rushing touchdowns to running backs. Croskey-Merritt has also been a non-factor in the receiving game, making him a risky flex option who is best left on benches this week.
Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys
- Projected Score: Cowboys 29, Cardinals 26
- Over/Under: 55.3
- Win Probability: Cowboys 60%
- Must-Starts: Kyler Murray, Javonte Williams, CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, Marvin Harrison Jr., Trey McBride, Jake Ferguson
In his last game, Bam Knight totaled 64 yards on 17 touches while operating in a timeshare. Although he has yet to play half the snaps in any game, he has been consistent, scoring between 9.4 and 12.4 fantasy points in his last three outings. Knight gets a significant boost this week against a Dallas defense that has allowed the second-most yards and fantasy points, as well as 10 touchdowns, to running backs. This favorable matchup elevates Arizona’s lead back to an RB2/flex option.
The Cardinals’ wide receivers are also in a great spot against a Cowboys defense that has surrendered the most touchdowns (15) and fantasy points to the position. With Trevon Diggs on IR, Dallas remains shorthanded in the secondary, providing an excellent opportunity for Marvin Harrison Jr. and the rest of the receiving corps.
