As Michigan State prepares to host Penn State in its final home game of the season, several key factors will determine the outcome.
A primary focus for the Spartans will be the performance of redshirt freshman quarterback Alessio Milivojevic. While coach Jonathan Smith has not officially named him the starter, Milivojevic is expected to lead the offense after a promising debut against Minnesota two weeks ago. In that game, he displayed notable poise and a willingness to stand in the pocket against pressure—an attribute not easily taught. His composure will be tested again by a talented Penn State edge rush. Milivojevic’s main area for improvement is in the red zone, where some struggles were attributed to play-calling. It remains to be seen how MSU will strategize in those situations, potentially utilizing the mobility of backup Aidan Chiles near the goal line.
Protecting the quarterback will be paramount. The Spartans’ offensive line, which allowed six sacks in the first half against Minnesota before stabilizing, faces a formidable challenge. While Penn State’s sack numbers are not as high as Minnesota’s, edge rushers Dani Dennis-Sutton and Zuriah Fisher, along with defensive tackle Zane Durant, form a disruptive front. If MSU’s pass protection falters early, it could be a long day for the offense and may force a change at quarterback.
On the outside, receiver Nick Marsh continues to be a focal point for opposing defenses. His season statistics—46 catches for 554 yards and five touchdowns—are solid but do not fully reflect his impact, as he consistently draws special coverage. Marsh has yet to deliver a truly dominant, game-breaking performance, and achieving one against Penn State’s strong pass defense would provide a significant boost for the Spartans in an otherwise difficult season.
Meanwhile, Penn State’s mental state is a major question mark. The Nittany Lions enter the game after two consecutive high-stakes losses to Ohio State and Indiana, the latter in heartbreaking fashion. Their ability to remain focused for a road game against a winless Big Ten opponent will be critical. In contrast, Michigan State has consistently played with high effort in recent weeks. While Penn State holds a talent advantage, preparation and focus often dictate outcomes in college football.
The atmosphere at Spartan Stadium could also play a role. For the final home game of the year, a supportive crowd could provide a much-needed advantage. However, if attendance is sparse or the crowd turns negative after a slow start, the home-field environment could quickly diminish.
Prediction: Penn State 25, Michigan State 20
