United Airlines on Wednesday announced a stronger-than-expected earnings forecast for the fourth quarter, signaling a positive outlook after a mixed third quarter. The carrier projects it will earn between $3.00 and $3.50 per share in the final three months of the year, well above the $2.86 per share anticipated by analysts.
The optimistic forecast followed third-quarter results where the airline surpassed profit estimates but fell slightly short on revenue. For the quarter ending September 30, United reported adjusted earnings of $2.78 per share, beating the LSEG consensus estimate of $2.62. However, revenue came in at $15.23 billion, just under the expected $15.33 billion. The company’s net income declined 1.7% year-over-year to $949 million.
United’s positive outlook comes as it continues an aggressive growth strategy, expanding flight capacity while many rivals scale back. The airline increased capacity by 7% in the third quarter compared to last year. This expansion contributed to a decline in unit passenger revenue, which fell 3.3% for domestic travel and 7.1% for international routes.
CEO Scott Kirby defended the strategy, emphasizing that long-term investments in the customer experience—such as complimentary Wi-Fi, new lounges, and refreshed cabins—are attracting and retaining high-value customers. “Those investments… have allowed United to win and retain brand-loyal customers, leading to economic resilience… and significant upside as the economy and demand are improving in the fourth quarter,” Kirby said in a release.
A key part of this strategy is attracting affluent travelers. The airline reported a 6% rise in premium-cabin revenue during the quarter, outpacing the 4% year-over-year sales growth from its no-frills basic economy tickets. Revenue from its lucrative loyalty program also saw a robust 9% increase.
The airline’s current confidence follows a more challenging period earlier in the year when United, along with other carriers, trimmed initial forecasts due to fluctuating passenger demand and an oversupply of flights that suppressed fares.
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