National Bank Open: Predictions for July 30
The ATP and WTA Tours head to Canada for the 2025 National Bank Open. The men’s Masters 1000 event takes place in Toronto, while the women compete at their 1000-level tournament in Montreal. While top players like Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner, Novak Djokovic, and Aryna Sabalenka have withdrawn to prepare for Cincinnati, both fields remain strong and promise compelling matchups.
Yosuke Watanuki vs. Frances Tiafoe
Watanuki and Tiafoe met in March at Indian Wells, where Watanuki secured a surprising 6-4, 7-6(6) victory. Although that win didn’t become a turning point for Watanuki’s season—which has been inconsistent and largely spent on the Challenger circuit—the matchup itself appears favorable for him. Their previous encounter in Miami in 2023 was also highly competitive, with Tiafoe needing three sets to win 6-7(5), 7-6(3), 6-4. The narrow margin in their past meetings suggests the gap between them is smaller than their rankings indicate.
This match also finds Tiafoe at a vulnerable moment, following a disappointing quarterfinal loss at his home tournament in Washington D.C. He could be experiencing a letdown, a pattern seen previously in his career. Furthermore, Watanuki trained with coach Wayne Ferreira earlier this year—Ferreira coached Tiafoe for several years, giving Watanuki valuable insight into the American’s game.
The key for Watanuki will be his serve. His unorthodox motion can be unreliable at times, and he must avoid lengthy, high-pressure service games to stay competitive against Tiafoe.
Prediction: Watanuki +1.5 Sets (-115); Watanuki ML (+275)
Pablo Carreno Busta vs. Arthur Fils
Arthur Fils is set to return to the court for the first time since the French Open after recovering from a stress fracture in his back. Despite the potential for rust, he faces a manageable opponent in Pablo Carreno Busta. The Spaniard has struggled in 2025, posting a 4-9 record at the ATP level with a break percentage of only 15.2%. If Carreno Busta fails to pressure Fils’ service games, the match could be one-sided.
Fils holds an advantage in serving, returning, and baseline play. Even if he starts slowly, he should find his rhythm as the match progresses. Earlier this year in Barcelona, Fils covered a 3.5-game spread against Carreno Busta on clay, the Spaniard’s preferred surface and home turf. If Carreno Busta couldn’t secure a comfortable win under those favorable conditions, it is unlikely he will do so here.
Prediction: Fils -3.5 Games (-123)
Maria Sakkari vs. Jessica Pegula
Maria Sakkari appears to be regaining her form. In Washington D.C., she earned straight-set wins over Katie Boulter and Emma Navarro and was highly competitive in a loss to an in-form Emma Raducanu. She now faces a formidable challenge in Jessica Pegula, the two-time defending National Bank Open champion. However, the timing may be advantageous for Sakkari. Pegula suffered a straight-sets loss at Wimbledon to Elisabetta Cocciaretto and was then upset in her opening match in Washington by eventual champion Leylah Fernandez. Pegula’s current form is questionable, while Sakkari is on an upward trend.
A critical factor will be Sakkari’s serve. After struggling to hold for much of 2025, recent equipment changes seem to have brought significant improvement. If she can serve effectively against Pegula, the match should be close, as Sakkari possesses the baseline game to challenge the American. Although Pegula has won their last three meetings, Sakkari holds five career victories over her, proving she has the capability to win when playing solid tennis.
Prediction: Sakkari +1.5 Sets (-143); Sakkari ML (+200)
