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It has been more than 25 days since it was launched Al-Aqsa floodAnd flames flowed from Gaza To its cover and suburbs, in which Israel began a massive process of revenge, during which it burned Gaza’s green land and turned its shores and fields into flowing waterfalls of blood and flames, before reaching its land station, which is of great importance to both parties.
and amadat Israel For more than 3 weeks, it has been bombarding the besieged sector by air and sea, and is preparing for what it describes as a ground maneuver, and was forced to postpone it more than once under various pretexts and reasons, according to what was reported by international media during the past weeks.
Although it began a few days ago, ground incursions into the Gaza Strip through more than one axis; Israel has so far refused to describe this as a broad ground operation, which it has repeatedly threatened, and this may be due to its fear that this would put pressure on regional parties such as Hizb allah It is still reluctant to engage widely in the war, or it is afraid of bearing responsibility for failure when it is unable to achieve the declared goals of the ground war.
However, the ground operation and the extensive air and naval bombardment that accompanies it represent great pressure on both parties. The Al-Qassam Brigades and the resistance factions find themselves facing the strongest and most dangerous Israeli military operations against the residents of Gaza, and they feel – without a doubt – the burden of the harsh humanitarian conditions in the Strip, especially with the number of martyrs rising to nearly 9 thousand, while the Israeli forces are clashing with the most powerful forms of resistance in Palestine. Resilient, most powerful, and every day faced with an unpleasant or promising surprise regarding his incursion.
Because the blood flowing in Gaza is searching for an end, and because the voices of living consciences across the world have become hoarse as they demand an end to the waterfall of blood shed in Gaza; The analysis indicators and forecast paths confirm the existence of 4 basic factors that will play – albeit differently – a major role in determining the course and fate of the war on Gaza, which are:
Resistance steadfastness
The resistance’s steadfastness represents the most important factor in thwarting the aggression on Gaza, as the Al-Qassam Brigades and the resistance factions in general bet on their defensive capabilities, but they do not exaggerate in this despite the “balance of terror” they achieved during the past weeks, stressing that they cannot prevent the incursion, but they will make Its price is very high, which opens the door to questioning the ceiling of the price that Tel Aviv can pay in order to “achieve the minimum level of victory.”
Since the ground incursions began, the Al-Qassam Brigades and the resistance factions have provided statements and statements on an almost daily basis regarding the course of the confrontation, the lines of engagement, and the toll of losses among the Israeli forces. They pledged to stand firm and thwart the mission of the ground forces, inflicting heavy costs on them.
In his last speech yesterday, Tuesday, Abu Ubaida, spokesman for… Al-Qassam Brigadesabout raids and infiltration operations behind the lines of enemy forces, the destruction of 22 military vehicles, and the killing and wounding of a large number of Israeli soldiers during fierce and direct confrontations.
Abu Ubaida also announced – as part of his inventory of the Phalange’s efforts to repel the ground attack – some new weapons that are being used for the first time during the resistance wars with Israel, including the remotely piloted naval “Storped Torpedo,” as well as “explosive devices used from zero distance against tanks.” .
Despite the Israeli incursions through more than one axis, especially in the northeast, northwest, and central region with the aim of cutting off the north of the Gaza Strip from its south, military analysts believe that the paths of the incursion have not yet reached the level that is frightening for the resistance, as the locations into which the attacking forces have penetrated are Originally, they served as soft fences for the sector, as they were – in their entirety – open agricultural areas, or areas that were razed and buildings were razed to the ground, which means – according to them – that reaching them does not represent a major military achievement.
In addition, Israel acknowledges the ferocity of the confrontation, and that it incurred a “heavy price” during the battles in the Gaza Strip, as Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant said the day before Tuesday, despite his assertion that their forces achieved “major achievements” during the operation, which indicates that the military and political leaders In Tel Aviv, she is determined to achieve victory, or at least take a picture of it, even though the path is painful and the desired goal is becoming more distant.
Although Israel talks about a difficult and long operation, a number of military experts believe that the continued steadfastness of the resistance, its ability to surprise the attacking forces from time to time, inflict great costs on them, and strengthen its military defenses, would lead to a decrease in the life of the ground military operation. It is difficult for Israel to continue an open war, which drains its economy and forces it to change its political and security strategies, after the Al-Aqsa Flood operation blew up the Gaza Envelope Division, which has deep experience in the Gaza Strip, and long experience in confronting its factions and resistors, according to what the resistance confirms, to restore Israel in light of that. Another cover drawing inside the sector of blood, destruction, and the remains of children and the elderly.
Prisoners and families… a groan that shakes Netanyahu’s chair
In addition to the previous factor, there is another very important factor, which is the card of the prisoners or detainees, which represents a new and effective element of power that the Al-Qassam Brigades and the resistance factions in general add to their capabilities and cards in both war and negotiation. If the prisoners are a card in the hands of the Gazans, then their families are a strong pressure card against Government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
The Al-Qassam Brigades work from time to time to arouse and strengthen this pressure by broadcasting recordings of some of its prisoners, as part of the paths of psychological warfare that have also become part of the resistance’s new power cards.
The families of the prisoners hold Netanyahu responsible for the lives of their children, and they are also pressing to respond to Hamas’s request to release all prisoners in exchange for the release of all Palestinian and Arab prisoners held by Israel.
As the ground operation continues, it is expected that the movements and activities of the families of the prisoners inside Israel will escalate, which represents an additional factor that would – along with other factors – put great pressure on Netanyahu and his war corps not to prolong the war, especially if the ground forces fail to achieve a qualitative breakthrough. It gives an image of victory over the Gaza Strip.
American Muslims… mounting pressure on Biden
There is no doubt that Washington’s role in the current war on Gaza was great, and its remarkable support for Israel militarily, security and politically exceeded all expectations, and returned to reflect on Biden internal confusion and an expected negative impact on his electoral chances next year.
Muslims in the United States represent an important component of the social and political fabric in the country, and they have threatened and confirmed that they will mobilize their political positions against Biden in the 2024 elections, unless he saves himself by stopping the crazy war in Gaza.
They and some Democratic Party activists (Biden’s party) threatened that they would work to mobilize millions of Muslim voters, and encourage them to stop donations and abstain from voting for President Joe Biden in the 2024 presidential elections unless he saves himself by taking immediate steps to cease fire in Gaza.
The Islamic National Democratic Council represents one of the most prominent American Islamic voices opposing the continuation of the war in Gaza, and this council called on Biden to take whatever mediation and influence he can in order to stop the war by nine o’clock last night, Tuesday, a call that does not appear to have reached ears yet. Listening to the American President, so that they maintain their strong threat to mobilize against any candidate who supports the Israeli aggression in Gaza.
Reuters quoted Jilani Hussein, executive director of the CAIR Council in Minnesota, as saying that American Muslim leaders in states considered crucial for Biden in the 2024 elections will make similar demands to stop the war on Gaza.
As the massacres continue in Gaza, it is expected that the pressures of Muslim Americans and progressives in the Democratic Party on the White House will escalate, and when Biden feels that the signs of the current division in the Democratic war and the positions of Muslims denouncing his administration’s identification with the Israeli position could affect his chances in a second term, then no. It is then unlikely that he will take another turn towards stopping the intensity of this frenzied war.
Is Hezbollah pulling the trigger on the resistance?
Hezbollah has been partially involved in the confrontation with Israel since the first days of the outbreak of the war, and although the missiles that the party fires towards Israeli sites and towns contribute – even if only partially – as observers say, to dispersing the Israeli war efforts; The party that carries the slogan of resistance against Israel has not yet penetrated deeply, nor has it fully and strongly engaged in the current war between Israel and the resistance factions in Gaza.
Some leaders of the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) have indicated that the movement expects more from the party than it has provided so far.
It is not yet known what Hassan Nasrallah will reveal in his awaited speech, which – in a special context – represents that about a month has passed since the outbreak of the war on Gaza, and days since the start of the ground war in the Gaza Strip, and the fact that the man is speaking for the first time since the beginning of the war.
Hezbollah’s position will have a strong influence on the future of the ground military operation in Gaza, if it escalates its attacks, or decides to enter completely into the war, which means opening a front that will not be easy for Israel.
In addition to Hezbollah, the role that can be played by brigades and military movements affiliated with the so-called resistance axis, such as the Houthi group, which announced yesterday that it was targeting Israel with ballistic and winged missiles in an operation that is the third of its kind.
Among these factors, the picture can become clearer, so that blood alone remains the most eloquent and decisive opinion regarding the duration and duration of the frenzied war on the devastated sector.
