The political landscape shaped by Donald Trump faces a crucial test on Tuesday as gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey offer a glimpse into the future of both major parties. The outcomes will not only determine leadership in these states for the next four years but will also reveal how Republicans and Democrats are recalibrating their strategies to build winning coalitions.
Since Trump’s significant losses in both blue-leaning states in 2020, Republicans have made notable inroads. Tuesday’s elections will gauge the durability of these gains, which hinge on the party’s increased appeal to demographics that once voted solidly Democratic, particularly Latino voters who shifted toward Trump in 2024. Democrats, meanwhile, have spent the past year working to reverse these trends, fielding new candidates to move past their 2024 presidential loss. With Trump now back in the White House, the races will also measure the extent of any voter backlash against the incumbent.
In Virginia, Democrat Abigail Spanberger holds a clear polling lead over Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears. The contest is tighter in New Jersey, where Democrat Mikie Sherrill has a narrower advantage over Republican Jack Ciattarelli. As the votes are tallied, key counties and demographic trends will provide insight into the evolving American electorate.
NEW JERSEY
Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump by 17 points in New Jersey in 2020, but the state has since become more competitive. In 2021, Jack Ciattarelli came within just three points of unseating Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy. Last year, Trump narrowed his own loss to less than six points, his second-largest improvement nationwide.
Crucially, Trump and Ciattarelli achieved their gains by appealing to different voter segments. Ciattarelli performed best in affluent, college-educated suburbs, while Trump’s largest improvements came from areas with high concentrations of Hispanic voters.
Where Ciattarelli Outperformed Trump
Somerset County, an affluent and historically Republican area, exemplifies the challenge for the GOP. Like many suburbs, its population has diversified, and its highly educated voters have grown resistant to the Trump-led party. After winning Somerset in 2004, Republicans lost it in every subsequent presidential election, culminating in Biden’s 21-point victory in 2020.
In 2021, however, Ciattarelli lost the county by just four points—a 17-point improvement over Trump’s 2020 performance. While Trump regained some ground in 2024, he still lost Somerset by 14 points. A key question is whether Ciattarelli, who once represented parts of the county, can replicate his 2021 showing. Four years ago, with a Democrat in the White House, many anti-Trump voters felt comfortable backing a local Republican. With Trump as the incumbent president, that calculus may change.
Bernards Township within Somerset highlights this dynamic. A wealthy community where most white adults hold college degrees, it voted Republican for president as recently as 2012 before strongly rejecting Trump. He lost the township by 14 points in 2020 and 11 points in 2024. Ciattarelli, in contrast, won it by five points in 2021. Holding onto such affluent, anti-Trump suburban voters is critical to his path to victory.
Where Trump Outperformed Ciattarelli
Passaic County in North Jersey tells a different story. This diverse county—roughly 40% Hispanic and 40% white—flipped for Trump in 2024 after years of favoring Democrats. While Ciattarelli also improved on past Republican performance in 2021, he failed to make the significant inroads Trump later did in the county’s largest, non-white cities: Paterson and Passaic.
In Paterson, a city that is two-thirds Hispanic, Ciattarelli lost by 71 points in 2021, a typical margin for Republicans. Yet in 2024, Trump lost by only 28 points, driven by new support in Hispanic neighborhoods and improved margins in the heavily Arab American section of South Paterson. In Passaic city, which is 75% Hispanic, Trump won by six points in 2024 after Ciattarelli had lost it by 40 points in 2021.
This trend reflects Trump’s broader gains with Hispanic voters statewide. Ciattarelli’s inability to attract these voters four years ago raises doubts about his chances of adding them to his coalition this year. His campaign hopes that Trump has created a gateway for these voters to the wider Republican Party. However, if Ciattarelli cannot win them over, he must rely on low turnout in Democratic strongholds. In 2021, turnout in Paterson was just 35% of its 2020 presidential level, far below the statewide average of 57%. For Democrat Mikie Sherrill, boosting participation in urban centers like Paterson is a top priority.
VIRGINIA
In 2024, Trump lost Virginia by just under six points, a marked improvement from his 10-point defeat four years earlier. The result was a tale of two distinct electoral shifts within the state. He made significant strides in the suburbs and exurbs of Northern Virginia, especially in areas with large Hispanic and Asian American populations. Outside this region, however, his progress was limited, and in some areas, his support even eroded.
Building on 2021 Gains in Northern Virginia
The counties of Northern Virginia, which account for a third of the statewide vote, have been the engine of the state’s shift toward Democrats. Yet these same diversifying communities fueled Trump’s gains in 2024.
In doing so, Trump solidified many of the advances Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin made during his successful 2021 campaign. In Loudoun County, for instance, Youngkin narrowed the Republican loss to 11 points in 2021, a major improvement over Trump’s 25-point deficit in 2020. Trump continued this trend, losing the county by 16 points last year. This progress was partly driven by increased support from Latino voters. In Sterling, Loudoun’s most Latino area, Trump cut his 2020 deficit of 44 points to just 19 points in 2024, outperforming even Youngkin.
Republican gains in Loudoun are also linked to contentious local debates over education, which appear to have resonated with Asian American voters. Loudoun Valley Estates, a majority-Asian community, will be a key indicator. Biden won it by 43 points in 2020, but Youngkin cut that margin to 28 points in 2021, and Trump narrowed it by another five points last year. Whether Republican Winsome Earle-Sears can tap into these same currents remains to be seen.
Similar dynamics are at play in diverse Prince William County and the city of Manassas Park, where Trump significantly reduced his margins in 2024, largely due to shifts among Hispanic voters.
Beyond Northern Virginia
Away from the DC suburbs, two major population centers that embraced Youngkin in 2021 rejected Trump last year, posing a challenge for the 2025 Republican ticket.
Chesterfield County, a large suburb south of Richmond, was staunchly Republican for decades before shifting away from the party during the Trump era. After Trump lost the county by seven points in 2020, it moved further left in 2024, with Kamala Harris winning it by nine. A precinct-level analysis shows Trump continued to lose ground in the county’s predominantly white, high-education precincts, even as he gained in its Black neighborhoods. Youngkin’s 2021 victory was powered by winning back these suburban voters, carrying Chesterfield by five points. His campaign successfully kept Trump at a distance at a time when an unpopular Democrat occupied the White House. With Trump’s popularity unchanged, Democrats are betting that a backlash against him will make it harder for Earle-Sears to replicate that success.
Perhaps the state’s biggest bellwether is Virginia Beach. A large military presence long made it one of the most Republican-friendly cities in the country, but growth and diversification have tilted it toward Democrats. In 2020, Biden became the first Democrat to win it since 1964. While Republicans hoped to flip it back in 2024, Harris held on for a three-point victory. This contrasts sharply with the 2021 governor’s race, which Youngkin won by eight points. As in Chesterfield, the central question is whether Trump’s return to the presidency will render Youngkin’s 2021 roadmap obsolete for the GOP this year.
