When healthy, Christian McCaffrey’s statistical potential is undeniable. The San Francisco 49ers running back dominated fantasy football in 2019 and did so again during his first full campaign with the team in 2023, surpassing 2,000 scrimmage yards and scoring 21 touchdowns. His performance was so compelling that fantasy managers largely ignored his all-or-nothing injury history, making him the consensus top pick in 2024 drafts.
Now, his draft value is far less certain. While optimistic managers may point to his first-round Average Draft Position (ADP) as a sign of confidence, his recent history warrants caution. After a difficult 2024 season, where a mysterious lower-body injury was downplayed before he returned for four disappointing games, McCaffrey is hardly a trustworthy commodity.
This analysis is part of the annual “Do Not Draft” list, which identifies players whose draft-day cost may not align with their statistical outlook. The goal is not to declare players “undraftable” at any price, but to question their value at their current ADP. There is a point in every draft where McCaffrey’s upside is worth the risk, but for many, that point is not within the top 10, where safer, more reliable wide receivers and even other running backs are available.
This isn’t the first time the now 29-year-old has frustrated fantasy managers. The star of 2019 became the bust of 2020 and 2021, playing in only 10 games over two seasons before being traded from the Carolina Panthers. While he appeared rejuvenated in San Francisco, his 2024 performance raises old concerns. The uncertainty of his availability and production is the central problem, a gamble not required for most other players selected in the early rounds.
A similar cautionary tale applies to Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley. While he should remain productive, a statistical regression is likely after he handled an immense 378 touches last season (482 including the postseason). History shows that such a workload is unsustainable. Since 2000, of the 12 running backs who logged 400-plus touches (including playoffs), none finished as a top-10 fantasy running back the following year. Furthermore, Barkley has missed at least three games in four of his past six seasons. The analytically-minded Eagles, who are focused on a deep playoff run, are unlikely to lean on him so heavily again.
While both McCaffrey and Barkley possess elite upside, their injury histories are significant. They have a combined total of only six career top-five finishes in PPR scoring. For comparison, Baltimore Ravens running back Derrick Henry has achieved that feat in five of the past six seasons, yet he is typically drafted later.
### Quarterbacks
As an annual tradition, this list begins by cautioning against drafting the first quarterbacks off the board. In standard single-QB leagues, players like Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Jayden Daniels, and Joe Burrow do not represent strong value in the early rounds. While they are expected to have great seasons, the running back or wide receiver you could select instead is often a more critical asset due to positional scarcity. It is a better strategy to wait and draft a quarterback after the 10th round.
Even in later rounds, certain quarterbacks carry too much risk. Anthony Richardson Sr. has yet to prove he can stay healthy and perform at a consistently high level. It is also difficult to trust that the Green Bay Packers will want Jordan Love, with his propensity for mistakes, to attempt over 500 passes again. Sam Darnold’s stunning 2024 campaign with the Vikings earned him a starting job with the Seattle Seahawks, but a repeat performance is unlikely. Finally, aging veterans Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers have not shown the late-career resilience of Tom Brady and should be avoided.
### Running Backs
Despite playing for two seasons, New York Jets running back Breece Hall has yet to record a 1,000-yard rushing season. An interesting piece of trivia is that his new quarterback, Justin Fields, did rush for over 1,000 yards with the Chicago Bears in 2022. Hall, now two years removed from ACL surgery, is coming off an inefficient 2024 and will likely see his volume decrease, especially in the passing game. He was outscored on a per-game PPR basis by several running backs with a lower ADP, including Chuba Hubbard, James Conner, and David Montgomery, a trend that is unlikely to change.
Caution is also advised for this year’s rookie running backs. While newcomers are always appealing, the paths to significant playing time are unclear for Omarion Hampton, RJ Harvey, Quinshon Judkins, Kaleb Johnson, and TreVeyon Henderson. Veteran coaches often rely on established players, making backs like Hubbard, Conner, Montgomery, D’Andre Swift, and Tony Pollard safer, if less exciting, picks who offer a more predictable workload.
Elsewhere, the running back situations in the NFC East are best avoided. The Denver Broncos, New York Giants, and Washington Commanders are all poised to use timeshares, which will limit the fantasy upside for Javonte Williams, Brian Robinson Jr., Austin Ekeler, Tyrone Tracy Jr., and Cam Skattebo. The Jacksonville Jaguars’ backfield also presents similar concerns.
### Wide Receivers
The Kansas City Chiefs’ receiving corps—comprised of Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, and Hollywood Brown—is being overrated. Patrick Mahomes’ dip below 300 fantasy points in the past two seasons was due to a variety of factors, not just underperforming young receivers or an aging Travis Kelce. The Chiefs have become a more balanced team that relies on its running game and defense. Mahomes is unlikely to return to throwing for 5,000 yards, Rice is facing a potential multi-game suspension, Worthy had an inconsistent rookie year, and Brown has not been a major factor since 2021. Expect another season where no Chiefs player reaches 1,000 rushing or receiving yards.
In Pittsburgh, DK Metcalf joins the Steelers after Aaron Rodgers’ arrival. While Metcalf has the physical profile of a WR1, his numbers haven’t consistently matched that potential, and a new team does not guarantee a better situation. He averaged just six touchdowns per season in three years with Geno Smith, and it is debatable whether Rodgers, at this stage of his career, is a significant upgrade.
Veterans Deebo Samuel Sr. and Cooper Kupp are also on the fade list. Now with the Washington Commanders and Seattle Seahawks, respectively, both players looked to be in decline last season. Samuel, who is constantly dealing with injuries, is unlikely to see major volume or his signature rushing attempts. Kupp has missed 18 games over the past three seasons. Their best years appear to be behind them.
Finally, avoid obvious injury risks. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have indicated that Chris Godwin (ankle) may not be ready for Week 1, and the same caution applies to the 49ers’ Brandon Aiyuk (knee). While Chris Olave’s situation with concussions is different, it is wise to limit your exposure to compromised receivers in the middle rounds.
### Tight Ends
Mark Andrews led all tight ends with 11 touchdowns last season for the Baltimore Ravens. However, a closer look reveals that 13 tight ends had more catches and 19 had more targets—metrics that are more predictive of future success. With emerging teammate Isaiah Likely commanding a role and touchdown regression a statistical probability, Andrews’ target share and scoring rate are likely to decrease.
Jonnu Smith’s terrific 2024 season with the Miami Dolphins will not be replicated with the Pittsburgh Steelers. Pat Freiermuth remains an effective option for the Steelers, and with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, there is not enough volume to support two fantasy-relevant tight ends. Rookies Colston Loveland and Tyler Warren are better late-round gambles than Smith or the oft-injured Dallas Goedert.
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