Children and young people, “the forgotten” in the PPEF

Children, youth and in general the new generations are “The Forgotten” in the Economic Package for 2023.

Among the main beneficiaries are the elderly.

The new generations are considered to have a very small budget. However, they are inherited a greater debt.

The executive director of the Center for Economic and Budgetary Research, Alejandra Macías, and the deputy director of Operations and Institutional Strengthening of the CIEP, Ricardo Cantú thus summarize who are the winners and the forgotten in the Federation Expenditure Budget Project (PPEF) 2023 .

There will be less budget for early childhood, for health care, health, education.

In contrast, for the pensions of the elderly, there is greater spending. Additionally, the new generations are inherited a greater and growing debt, per person (per capita).

The sentences are strong. The figures are devastating. Only 0.25% of next year’s public spending will be earmarked for early childhood care.

For pensions, 19.8% of the budget will be allocated. The 2023 Economic Package proposal leaves the well-being of the youngest and new generations in oblivion by allocating a greater proportion of resources from the public budget to pensions, compared to resources for children and youth.

If we were to talk about winners and losers in the Economic Package, the elderly would be the first, while early childhood, boys, girls and young people could be a little forgotten, Macías commented.

Expenditures for the care of the elderly population will increase 12.8%. Expenditure for Education will only grow 4.5% compared to 2022. In Health, spending will rise 4.2%. And spending for the population without health services would be reduced by 2.1%.

It is worth emphasizing that the recently created Decentralized Public Organization (OPD): IMSS-Well-being, simply does not appear in the PEF.

The IMSS-Well-being is the body that is supposed to be in charge of providing health services to the entire open or non-entitled population. But that is another story.

Regarding the debt that the new generations of Mexicans will inherit, a very important increase is observed.

To begin with, the CIEP experts point out that for the following year the government foresees a public debt payment of 1.2 trillion pesos (bp), of the total income projected at 8.3 bp.

The payment for debt service represents a growth of 30% in real terms, compared to 2022.

Such an increase in the cost of debt, in individual terms (per capita) represents an increase of 114 thousand 574 pesos to 118 thousand 208 pesos in 2023, for each citizen.

And if the trend in the growth of the cost of debt is maintained in 2028, it can increase to 128,155 pesos per person, according to Ricardo Cantú’s calculation.

For the CIEP, the economic package is far from being responsible, balanced and realistic.

They warn about the need to carry out a fiscal reform and highlight that only the payment of pensions and the financial cost of the debt represent 8.8% of GDP.

The entire ISR collection is not enough to pay it.

For 2023, financial requirements equivalent to 4.1% of GDP are being projected, which means that there will be greater indebtedness.

Although the debt indicator is projected to stabilize at 49% of GDP, such stability of the Historical Balance of the Financial Requirements of the Public Sector (SHRFSP) is sustained by assumptions of economic growth not linked to long-term projections referring to the demographic transition, notes the think tank.

glimpses

CHANGE? President Andrés Manuel López Obrador will advocate for world peace and no longer for energy sovereignty as he had anticipated on September 16. He surprised the presidential announcement. And after the visit of the US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, both the Secretary of Foreign Affairs, Marcelo Ebrard, and the Secretary of the Economy, Tatiana Clouthier, were very optimistic about the potential business coming in the automotive and semiconductor industries. I wish.

marcomaresg@gmail.com