November, the date for the panel?

We are in the middle of a turbulence that if not stopped we could crash. And it is that, although initially the date was October 3 as the limit for Mexico to define its steps in the agreements established in the T-MEC, mainly energy, and related to renewable energies, and the date was postponed to an indefinite time, the reality is that said time is not in sight beyond mid-November.

Time in which, if the government of Andrés Manuel López Obrador does not define anything, the controversial panel would be a reality for Mexico, forcing the Mexican economy to experience a recession that lasts several years, and a black first half of 2023.

The worst scenario for Mexico is to be on a controversial panel, because it would be an issue that would last several months, perhaps a quarter or two, opening the door for the US to impose tariffs on our imports, not only in the energy sector, where the fines would be around in the order of 30 billion dollars a year.

What happens in the Mexican environment. There are two positions, as specialists such as Víctor Manuel Herrera and Alfredo Coutiño tell us. The first is that the government is stretching the league to see how far the US and Canada can go and get away with it.

The other is that; Mexico is not interested and what it is looking for is to get out of the T-MEC, which would translate into a weak peso that would return to the levels of 25 pesos vs. the dollar, with it an economic depression for several years, and sectors in decline.

Investment output. In addition to the 200 billion dollars detained in renewable energies, the automotive industry, which is already shaping up to generate 100% electric cars, redirects its planned investments in Mexico, due to the lack of legal certainty. And so, several more sectors.

And it is that, one must not lose sight of the fact that Canada since the T-MEC was signed is insisting that the T-MEC should only have been signed between the US and Canada.

So much interest on the part of Canada, for Mexico to be a supplier of economic labor, it is not very interested, on the contrary, it seeks that the investments go to Canada.

So, you’re playing with fire, because there’s no way to win this controversy panel. And the damage from high rates and inflation that is not yet controlled, the pocket of Mexicans will continue to be affected.

Expensive credit, weak economic growth, which will not even reach 2% for this year, and in 2023 it will depend on whether there is no controversy panel, but, despite the fact that there is no economic growth, it will be less.

With the current environment, the first quarter of 2023 does not look favourable, even for the whole of next year the growth projection is seen to be much lower than this year’s.

The truth is that a change of direction in discourse and economic policies is required shortly, and that the Mexican government accelerate productive infrastructure processes that attract private tenders. What seems imminent is that the government has already seriously analyzed borrowing directly because the deficit is already very high. What strategies, the environment does not look favorable at all.