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(Trends Wide) — Elections are won, at the simplest level, by forming a larger coalition than any other party. But coalitions in America are changing with the times. Some of those changes are by choice, but other changes are driven by demographic changes.
One of those changes is the rising tide of Hispanic voters. This year they are likely to play a bigger role than ever in determining whether the Democratic Party or the Republican Party coalition is larger.
While we don’t know the exact size of the constituency of Hispanic voters, we do know that Hispanic voters (11%) accounted for more voters in 2020 than in any previous national election, according to the US Census Bureau.
We also know that Hispanic voters made up a larger share in the 2018 midterms (9%) than any previous midterms. The examination of the 2018 midterm elections was also notable because Hispanics represented the same percentage of voters as in the previous presidential elections. If that is the case this year, then the Hispanic share of the electorate in 2022 will be the highest for a midterm election.
For a historical comparison, Hispanics made up just 5% of the electorate in the 2002 midterm elections (or about half the percentage they made up in 2018).
The high percentage of Hispanic voters in the last midterm elections was driven not only by the fact that Hispanics represent a larger share of American adults, but also by the fact that a larger share of them turned out to vote.
A record 40% of the Hispanic population eligible to vote showed up in 2018. That was an increase of about 50% from 2014, which was roughly double the increase seen among non-Hispanic white Americans.
With other data indicating that we will see high turnout nationally in 2022, it follows that we should see another year of high Hispanic turnout.
Of course, we don’t actually hold national elections in the United States. Elections are held state by state and district by district.
It is at the state level where you can really see the power of the Hispanic vote this year. Control of the US Senate, at this point, looks set to come down to four key races: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania. Democrats will likely need to win three of these states to retain control of the Senate.
The Hispanic share of the voting-age population in Georgia and Pennsylvania is lower than nationally. This shouldn’t be surprising because a disproportionate share of Hispanics live in densely populated states (for example, California and Texas), which means that Hispanics make up a lower-than-average portion of the population in most states.
In Arizona and Nevada, it’s a totally different ball game. Hispanics made up 22% of voters in Arizona and 18% of voters in Nevada in 2022.
This means that Hispanic voters will likely have a major influence on which party wins the Senate in this election. This is, in a way, a statistical anomaly. There are only nine states where the Hispanic portion of the voting-age population is higher than nationally. As it happens, two of those states are big battlegrounds this fall.
However, the voting power of Hispanics in the race for control of the United States House of Representatives is diluted.
I took a look at the 50 closest races in the House (measured by FiveThirtyEight) and examined the share of Hispanics in the voting age population. Only 12 of the 50 districts have a significantly higher proportion of Hispanics than the nation as a whole. The clear majority (64%) have a lower proportion of Hispanics than the national average.
The close House races in which Hispanics will represent a significantly larger share than the nation as a whole will not come as much of a surprise to those who follow politics. They are in California (9, 13, 22, 27 and 45), Colorado (8), New Mexico (2), Nevada (1 and 4) and Texas (15, 28 and 34). In other words, they are mostly in the Southwest, as are the states with large Hispanic populations that will have an outsized voice in the Senate race.
A big question is whether either side will benefit greatly from the high Hispanic turnout. Democrats are likely to get some help as polls show Hispanics favoring Democrats in the congressional race. That same poll shows, however, that the margin Democrats are achieving among Hispanics is not as high as it was four years ago.
If that holds up in actual results, and given the GOP’s advantage among white voters, it may allow the overall GOP coalition to outnumber the Democratic Party.
Of course, we won’t know until all the votes are cast and counted.
