Analysts see economic growth greater than 2% this year

After knowing the timely information on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter, economists from the financial group Base, Monex, Ve por Más and Goldman Sachs estimate that it will show growth above 2% throughout 2022.

From New York, the economist for Latin America at Goldman Sachs, Alberto Ramos, explained that with the timely information for the third quarter and without revisions to previous data, it can be anticipated that the economy would register growth of 2.6% this year, a forecast which is subject to revision after the final GDP data is known, on November 25.

Goldman Sachs’ forecast for Mexico this year remains at 2.2%, considering that there is a possibility that economic activity will weaken visibly in the last quarter, as a result of the cycle in the United States.

The deputy director of economic analysis at Monex, Janneth Quiroz, observed that there is still no evidence in hard data about a deeper slowdown in the United States for the last part of the year.

He recalled that today begins the penultimate monetary meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee of the Fed (FOMC) and that the market assumes that the rate hike will be aggressive in search of placating inflation, which will lead to a recession in that country.

He noted that the slowdown in the United States was expected to have an impact on Mexico from the second half of the year and the Mexican GDP data is showing that this has not been the case.

Also from Wall Street, the chief economist for Mexico and Canada at Bank of America Securities, Carlos Capistrán, admitted that the performance of the GDP for the third quarter surprised on the upside and shows that the impact of higher exports is benefiting Mexico.

However, he highlighted that part of the growth is also due to the fact that Mexico is still recovering from the pandemic.

Capistrán believes that going forward the economy will moderate significantly following the weakening of the United States.

upward review

The Monex expert stressed that with the timely GDP data, we already have a GDP growth of 2.7% accumulated in nine months.

In any case, if activity comes to a standstill in the last stretch of 2022, due to a contraction in the United States, economic growth would be greater than 2.5% per year. Monex’s GDP estimate had not changed since last May, when it was at 1.7 percent.

The BofA Securities economist also revised up his estimate that was at 1.9% for this year, to leave it at 2.5% for 2022.

Grupo BX+ also admitted that the timely GDP data prompted an upward correction on its growth estimate. Now, they expect the economy to post a 2.3 percent gain.

They highlighted the sixth quarterly expansion in line with secondary activities, where the industrial sector is, to highlight the momentum generated by exports.

Barclays chief economist for Mexico and Latin America, Gabriel Casillas, warned since last week that his growth expectation for the country has remained unchanged at 2.5% since July, and that since the first half, they have remained at 2 percent. hundred.

The United States directly affects Mexico

The former director of the Western Hemisphere department at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Ilan Goldfajn, explained to El Economista that when a “much sharper slowdown” occurs in the world’s leading economy, Mexico will be impacted.

The fluctuations of the economic activity of the United States directly affect Mexico given its extensive commercial ties, he stressed.

He explained that half of the domestic value added in Mexico’s manufacturing sector is driven by foreign demand and its main trading partner is, of course, the United States.

A sharper slowdown will lead to lower exports, a moderation in remittances and lower tourism flows, he said.

ymorales@eleconomista.com.mx