Will Lula be able to save the Amazon?

The outcome of the presidential elections in Brazil is crucial for the future of the world’s forests. On Sunday, former president and Workers’ Party candidate Lula da Silva narrowly defeated incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro. Deforestation rates had skyrocketed under Bolsonaro.

Bolsonaro was elected in 2018 on an explicitly anti-environmental platform. He had promised to reduce environmental oversight, stop indigenous land demarcations and allow resource extraction from protected areas in the Amazon. In his victory speech, Lula signaled a strong commitment to preserving the Amazon, protecting the rights of indigenous peoples, and achieving a goal of zero deforestation.

During Bolsonaro’s first three years in office, 33,200 square kilometers of forest were cut down. That is something more than the surface of Belgium.

Some researchers say the Amazon could be close to its tipping point if current logging rates continue. That would mean that the tropical forest would lose its resistance to changes in climate and land use. This would have profound effects on global biodiversity, carbon storage and climate change.

Lula’s victory speech marks a clear departure from Bolsonaro’s rhetoric. It is a welcome change in preparation for the United Nations climate conference, COP27, which begins in Egypt on Sunday. However, Lula continues to face tough challenges to fulfill her promise to protect the jungle.

Deforestation increased in the last decade

The Amazon, with an extension of 5.5 million square kilometers, represents half of the remaining tropical forest in the world. It is home to enormous biodiversity, has a major influence on the world’s climate and hydrological cycles, and acts as a carbon sink.

Preserving the Amazon is crucial to achieving the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5℃ above pre-industrial levels, the goal of the Paris Agreement.

About 60% of the Amazon rainforest is in Brazil. This means that political changes in the nation have huge repercussions for this biome and, in turn, for the global climate.

Lula’s election opens up the possibility of ending the destruction of the jungle. In his first two terms (2003-10), Lula oversaw major reductions in forest clearing.

Important environmental laws were enacted in Lula’s first term. Remote sensing was used for real-time monitoring of the Amazon. Protected areas and indigenous territories were considerably expanded.

Other notable policies were the strategic focus on control and enforcement of the law in areas with high rates of deforestation, the reestablishment and regulation of a system of environmental sanctions, and the conditionality of compliance with financial aid.

Forest clearance was reduced by more than 80% between 2004 and 2012. However, the 2012 Forest Code relaxed some of the conservation rules on private land and granted an amnesty for previous deforestation. Rates began to rise again.

Bolsonaro’s election accelerated this upward trend. He cut funding to the environmental agency and tried to allow mining on indigenous lands and protected areas. Only last year an area of ​​rainforest the size of Montenegro was cleared. It was the worst loss in nearly two decades.

What these elections mean for the rainforest

Lula’s strong promises to protect the Amazon are unprecedented in Brazilian politics. His victory speech is a hope for the future of the jungle. International pressure to preserve the Amazon, along with an active and organized indigenous movement and civil society, are on his side.

However, Lula still has an uphill battle to face in his efforts to stop deforestation. Challenges include:

• A weakened environmental agency: The officials appointed by Bolsonaro refused to use the allocated funds and in 2020 the agency reached an all-time low of 591 active agents (compared to 989 in 2016), after a cut of 29% in 2019;

• An increase in land-related violence: this includes land invasions and violence against environmental activists and indigenous peoples;

• Organized criminal groups with interests in Amazon deforestation;

• A Congress dominated by conservatives: Lula needs their consent to pass environmental laws;

• A large agricultural group of deputies: representatives of various parties are the largest organized coalition in Congress and have been pressing for changes to environmental licensing laws, land regulations and rules governing indigenous land demarcations;

• A pause in much-needed international support: the most notable is the Amazon Fund, created in 2008 by Norway and Germany. Donors paused this funding in 2019 after Bolsonaro abolished the fund’s technical committee amid record deforestation rates and massive forest fires. Norway (which has donated more than $1.2 billion) has already signaled that it wants to resume climate cooperation once Lula takes office.

Furthermore, Lula only achieved a narrow electoral victory and takes charge of a country split in two. He will have to design innovative policies that link environmental concerns with sustainable development and economic opportunity. Only then will he be able to win over a polarized nation.

The next four years will be crucial for Brazil and the world. Brazil has already reduced deforestation once. The new government will have to draw lessons from its past success, while learning from recent political failures.

The situation is a challenge for the incoming president. But it also represents a great opportunity to reestablish Brazil’s position in the world and once again qualify its agricultural exports as sustainable and fair.

Kathryn Baragwanath, Research Fellow, Australian Catholic University

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original.