Super peso will depreciate almost 10% by the end of 2023: Monex

The super weight is on the verge of its end, because the Mexican currency will depreciate against the dollar almost 10% towards the end of 2023 in the face of a possible recession in the United States, analysts estimated Monex Stock Exchange.

Monex forecasts that the exchange rate will close 2022 at 20.30 pesos per dollar, which means a depreciation of 4.71% or 91.37 cents compared to current levels.

This Tuesday, the interbank dollar was trading at 19.3863 pesos around 12:00 noon, with a slight intraday depreciation of 0.24% compared to Monday’s close. Just yesterday, the exchange rate closed at a minimum not seen since February 2020, at 19.3406 pesos per dollar.

Janneth Quirozdeputy director of analysis at Monex, stated at a conference to present economic prospects that the main risk for the exchange rate in the remainder of the year is the possibility of an energy crisis in Europe during the winter season.

In addition, the brokerage house forecast that the peso-dollar parity will end 2023 at 21.30 units, which implies a loss against the US bill of 9.87% or 1.91 pesos.

Quiroz assured that one of the main pillars that have supported the Mexican peso so far in 2022 is the high flow of dollars that have entered Mexico for exports, remittances, direct foreign investment and tourism.

Given the possibility of a recession (in the US) occurring (next year), we would possibly see a lower inflow of dollars into the country”, which would cause a depreciation of the Mexican currency, said the Monex analyst.

So far this year, the peso is one of the few currencies that has resisted against the strength of the dollar and with an appreciation of 5.47% it is the second that gains the most against the greenback.