This weekend features a packed schedule of MMA championship action, headlined by events from the UFC and the PFL. On Saturday, UFC 319 marks the promotion’s final pay-per-view of the summer from Chicago, while the PFL World Championships continue Friday in Charlotte, North Carolina.
At UFC 319, middleweight champion Dricus Du Plessis makes his third title defense against No. 2 contender Khamzat Chimaev. The main event is a clash of undefeated UFC records, as Du Plessis (9-0) and Chimaev (8-0) both bring six stoppage victories into the Octagon.
In the co-main event, former Bellator standout Aaron Pico makes his highly anticipated UFC debut against undefeated featherweight Lerone Murphy. With Murphy riding the division’s longest active winning streak at eight fights, the winner could be positioned for a title shot against champion Alexander Volkanovski.
Meanwhile, Week 2 of the 2025 PFL World Championships will crown titleholders in the lightweight, bantamweight, and women’s flyweight divisions. Former Bellator champion Liz Carmouche will look to add another belt to her collection against Jena Bishop. Power punchers Alfie Davis and defending champion Gadzhi Rabadanov will clash for the lightweight title, while PFL veterans Marcirley Alves and Justin Wetzell battle for the bantamweight championship.
UFC Middleweight Championship: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev Analysis
Anthony Smith: I don’t believe Du Plessis can stop the takedown, but is he going to be good enough to get back to his feet and strong enough to get out of those spots? I think he is. So, we’re going to see Khamzat do something he’s never done, which is fight through adversity in a five-round fight. I’m taking DDP because of that.
Din Thomas: A couple months ago, I would have said DDP, but I’ve changed my mind. I think Khamzat’s grappling pressure is going to be too much. DDP needs to be the better grappler to win fights and keep them where he wants, and that’s not the case in this one.
Betting Insight (Ian Parker): Chimaev to win inside the distance (-140).
Even if Du Plessis can withstand Chimaev’s chaotic pace and wrestling through the first round, the narrative that Chimaev lacks a five-round gas tank may be untrue. Chimaev could surprise many by landing quality strikes early to set up his wrestling. While Du Plessis has shown durability, he has not faced a striker with Chimaev’s wrestling credentials.
Best Bets on the Rest of the UFC 319 Card
Strawweight: Loopy Godínez (-150) to win vs. Jessica Andrade
Andrade’s role has become a litmus test for top-10 contenders. After being out-struck by Natalia Silva and finished by Jasmine Jasudavicius, she faces Godínez, who is coming off a decision win over Julia Polastri. Expect Godínez to use the same wrestle-heavy approach. Once Andrade is controlled on her back, she tends to get finished.
Lightweight: Edson Barboza (-140) to win vs. Drakkar Klose
Coming off a knockout loss, Klose faces another devastating striker. If Klose cannot get this fight to the floor and keep it there, he isn’t winning. Few strikers are better than Barboza, whose leg-kicking game remains elite. Look for Barboza to defend takedowns early and accumulate damage with calf kicks as the fight progresses.
Best Bets for the PFL World Championships
Lightweight: Gadzhi Rabadanov to win inside the distance vs. Alfie Davis
Rabadanov has evolved from a wrestler who wins by decision to a complete mixed martial artist who finishes opponents. While Davis is a good striker with knockout power, Rabadanov can match him there and will have a major wrestling advantage, which could lead to a submission. A bet on the fight not reaching the final bell (under 4.5 rounds) is a safer alternative.
Women’s Flyweight: Liz Carmouche to win inside the distance vs. Jena Bishop
The 41-year-old Carmouche has another opportunity to win the world tournament, proving age is just a number. Unless Bishop catches her with an early submission, Carmouche should win and get the finish. Look for her to take top position and utilize her elbows and ground-and-pound to secure the victory.
Bantamweight: Marcirley Alves to win vs. Justin Wetzell
Alves’s odds have climbed to -225, but he remains the pick. For Wetzell to win, he needs to take Alves down and hold him there, which seems unlikely given Alves’s impeccable takedown defense this season. If the fight stays on the feet, Alves has a major advantage and should win the tournament by pushing a high volume of strikes.
