Competing leaderships

For Russia, its Arctic territories represent 10% of its GDP and 20% of its exports. Also, as it is a strategic area, it has military assets and a maritime fleet. For China it means the creation of “a polar silk route”.

Laurence Peter, the author of the famous Peter Principle says: “Competition, like truth, beauty and contact lenses, is in the eyes of the beholder.” This occurred at the recent face-to-face meeting between the presidents of the United States and China, held in Indonesia a few days ago. It was a necessary meeting given the current geopolitical tension that exists in the Eurasian zone and in the zone of influence of China and that threatens a new cold war.

The conflicts between the US and China are due to the leadership of both countries, which have areas of influence and prominence in the world economy.

Global and regional problems include the following: 1) the Russian war in Ukraine, 2) the tensions caused by North Korea, 3) the situation in Taiwan, 4) the debate and decisions on climate change, 5) food security affected by the blockade of supplies, 6) global security, 7) the control of nuclear weapons, 8) low global economic growth and inflation and 9) the pandemic and its derivatives.

In addition, there is a new important arena of geopolitical competition. It is that the warming of the Arctic four times faster than the world average is the reason for a greater presence of Russia and China in the area.

For Russia, its Arctic territories represent 10% of its GDP and 20% of its exports. Also, as it is a strategic area, it has military assets and a maritime fleet. For China it means the creation of “a polar silk route”. For both countries it is about having shorter and cheaper routes to go to the markets of North America and Western Europe. This is particularly important due to the 600% rise in shipping rates. NATO is also in the Arctic area. There is an Arctic Council with a rotating Presidency, now led by Russia.

What is indisputable is that the world is globalized and all countries are interdependent. Conflicts must be resolved diplomatically to avoid wars, seek realization in the world context of peace, stability, progress. But also understand the existing differences with countries like Russia and China that have forms of government that are far from liberal democracy and that represent dangers if they are not taken into account.

Henry Kissinger says: “In the nascent international order, nationalism has re-emerged. Nations have sought their own interest more often than high principles and have competed rather than cooperated. There is nothing to tell us that this age-old behavior has changed, or that it is likely to change in the coming decades.”

With the current leadership, the United States cannot withdraw from the world or dominate it.

China is the world’s main competitor, but it also has big internal problems. Its excessive regulation is creating problems with large industrial consortia and state-led innovation has begun to find its limits.

smota@eleconomista.com.mx