After an early May heatwave sparked fears of a sweltering season, Austin residents have experienced a summer that is notably cooler and wetter than in recent years. While Texas summers are typically defined by relentless heat domes, this year’s weather has been shaped by different atmospheric patterns.
The season began with an intense preview when temperatures hit 101 degrees on May 13 and 14, marking the city’s first triple-digit days of the year. However, the anticipated heatwave never fully materialized. June passed without a single 100-degree day for the first time since 2019, even though 26 of its 30 days registered above-normal temperatures.
July continued the trend, with a persistent wet weather pattern bringing milder conditions and daily rain to Central Texas. This influx of atmospheric moisture led to flash flooding on July 4 and July 12 but kept temperatures below the 30-year average for most of the month. Despite a late surge that saw a high of 102 degrees on July 31, July concluded with over six inches of rainfall—about four inches above normal. August has remained closer to seasonal norms, with temperatures hovering near the average of 99 degrees and recording five days at or above 100.
While this may feel like one of Austin’s coolest summers, it is more accurately the mildest in 13 years. Statistically, it still ranks as the 23rd warmest summer since record-keeping began in 1898. Public perception is likely skewed by the fact that nine of Austin’s ten hottest summers have occurred since 2000. So far this year, the city has recorded 12 days of triple-digit heat, a significant drop from the 21 such days logged by this time last year, which included a 12-day streak and the year’s peak temperature of 109 degrees.
This summer’s average temperature of 85.4 degrees stands in contrast to the city’s hottest on record, 89.5 degrees in 2011, and its coolest, a remarkably low 78.5 degrees in 1907. That year fell within a five-year period where Austin did not record a single 100-degree day.
Meteorologists attribute the milder conditions to a combination of tropical lows, rare cold fronts, and abundant moisture, all influenced by a neutral phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Unlike the recent La Niña-driven summers of 2022-2024 that brought extreme heat, this neutral pattern has fostered more typical seasonal conditions, similar to the mild summer of 2021.
The forecast suggests this pattern will continue. A tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico is expected to push moisture into Central Texas, bringing a high chance of showers over the weekend. With more storms and cloud cover predicted for the coming week, temperatures are expected to remain below 100 degrees.
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