Pemex refining grows at double digits in 2022 but is 32% below the target

The crude oil process of the National Refining System, made up of the six refineries that Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) has in the country, increased 15% on average for the first 11 months of 2022, reaching 814,524 barrels per day, with which, although will have an annual rise, this will be less than the one it had in 2021, in which for the month of November the annual increase of the accumulated average up to that moment was 21 percent. In addition, said level is 32% below the goal of 1.2 million barrels per day established by Pemex in 2021.

Pemex’s crude oil process in the accumulated 11 months of the year began to grow year-on-year only in 2021, when it stood at 708,631 barrels per day, according to the company’s Oil Statistics, above the 584,482 barrels per day reported in the same period of 2020.

Previously, at the end of the past six-year term, the crude oil process was 620,775 barrels per day between January and November 2018, and due to adjustments to the system and scheduled stoppages to change equipment in the refineries, as explained by the head of Energy, Rocío Nahle. , even during the first year of the current administration, the crude oil process fell by 4.3% in annual terms during the first 11 months of 2019, and fell 1.6% compared to the previous year in the average from January to October 2019. 2020.

And it should be remembered that a decade ago, the six Pemex refineries located in Cadereyta, Nuevo León; Tula, Hidalgo; Minatitlan, Veracruz; Salamanca, Guanajuato; Salina Cruz, Oaxaca, and Madero, Tamaulipas, processed an average volume of 1,192 million barrels of crude oil per day from January to November, a figure that is 32% higher than the 2022 report.

Thus, in a decade we went from using the system to 73% in 2012; to 75% in 2013, and later reductions began due to scheduled stoppages, lack of maintenance at the refineries and scarce supply of crude within Pemex to its Industrial Transformation subsidiary.

Already in the current six-year term, on average from January to November 2019, 36% of the 1,640 million barrels per day for crude oil processing that the six Pemex refineries have as installed capacity was used. In 2020, due to the lack of industrial activity and fuel demand, the use of refineries fell to 35 percent.

Finally, in 2021 the use of capacity was increased to 43% and by 2022 a use of 49.7% was reached in the first 11 months of the year.

For this 2023,995,000 barrels per day

At the end of last December, Pemex published its 2023 – 2027 Business Plan where it revealed that the crude oil process of its six refineries in the country will be 995,000 barrels per day in 2023, a volume 25.5% lower than the projected goal for the state company.

But with the entry into operation of the new Olmeca refinery, in Paraíso, Tabasco, and adding the production of the Deer Park refinery, in Texas, it will remain below 27%, since it will reach 1,454 million barrels per day , which is 546,000 barrels per day less than what was projected in the 10 Tasks plan for the state oil company for December 2021.

The foregoing, in an alternate scenario that includes the start-up of the Dos Bocas refinery at half its capacity and the refinery that Pemex fully acquired from Shell in 2022. But only with the current national refining, without the new plant and Without Deer Park, the state company admits that it will remain 342,000 barrels per day below the commitment made by the current administration when announcing the Dos Bocas refinery, which was to reach a process of 1,337 million barrels per day of crude oil processing, only in the existing refineries. This implies that the goal of 1,337 million barrels per day of crude oil processing in the national system will be delayed by one year and the ceiling of one million barrels of crude oil processing in Pemex refining will be broken until 2024.

karol.garcia@eleconomista.mx