This challenger 2023

Estimates of economic growth oscillate between different figures; The OECD has adjusted its estimate downward towards 1.5%, Banxico considers that Mexico will grow around 1.6% and the IMF is going downward, estimating that our country will be at levels of 1.2% percent. In a stark contrast, the Ministry of Finance points out that we will grow by a whopping 3 percent.

Year after year the same spiel is heard: the next 365-day cycle will be brimming with challenges. This assertion draws us panoramas where the complications on the horizon commonly stand out and which, also year after year, derive on many occasions from inaction that translates into chronic problems without resolution, and in many others the circumstance that limits us intervenes. But, without wishing to fall into repetition, it is clear that this nascent 2023 already draws a map that includes both fronts; a great burden of circumstances from the world environment, and a series of problems derived from economic policy and public action that leave us in a situation where the challenge will be constant.

The first dimension of the circumstance has to do with the general slowdown of the economies. It is here where the joint behavior of the main economies of global influence such as China, the United States and the Euro zone will foreseeably move at increasingly slower rates throughout the year due to the influence of various known factors. The continuity in the war in Russia and Ukraine, with the consequent distortion in the supply chains, will continue to stop an economic rhythm that it wants to accelerate. In Mexico, this influence is inevitable; We depend on supply on various fronts, and the prolongation of this shortage is, in turn, a reason to continue experiencing inflationary pressures and more restrictive financial conditions.

And the immediate goal has largely been to achieve the levels observed prior to the pandemic shutdown. However, there is still no certainty about how much it will be possible to grow when the destination of public resources is not generating a real scheme of productive investment for the country. Thus, the estimates of economic growth themselves oscillate between different figures; The OECD has adjusted its estimate downward to 1.5%, Banxico considers that Mexico will grow around 1.6% and the International Monetary Fund is going downward, estimating that our country will be at levels of 1.2 percent. In a clear contrast, either due to overflowing optimism or the construction of a convenient narrative, the Ministry of Finance points out that we will grow by an impressive 3 percent.

The truth is that, in this set of factors, a lot will depend on the great world panorama, but, underlinedly, we will be subject to the progress of our closest neighbor and partner. The United States is revolting in an internal struggle for stability. America is closer to recession and possibly a stagflation scenario like never before. The fate of the neighbors considerably affects the Mexican directions, therefore, we must consolidate what is done at home to live up to a year that, although it requires local order, is subject to what the world will show us. . May the best come is the wish.

Twitter: @gdeloya