Global risk map, what are you most afraid of, Mexican?

There are threats and we are vulnerable. That is why it is said that we are at risk. It is worth asking questions and doing an introspection exercise, to you, dear reader, which threat scares you the most? We have a war in the Ukraine; cybercriminal groups attacking critical infrastructure; floods in California that resemble scenes from the Bible and remind us of the seriousness of the climate threat; social and political polarization, which is fed by misinformation and misinformation; “Silent” health crises that seize fatigued health systems and the population fed up with taking care of themselves after almost three years of covid.

The list of threats is huge. It does not stop moving and branching out. The 2023 risk map presented by the Davos World Economic Forum has substantial differences compared to that of 2022. The increase in prices and the Russian invasion of Ukraine changed the board. Climate change continues to give warnings and it is clear that it is the risk for which the world is least prepared.

Inflation is already doing damage and will weaken the position of the poorest countries. The scenario could be more complicated if the price of food remains high and growing for another five or ten years. The most vulnerable are the countries that depend a lot on abroad for their agri-food supply. The Russian attack on Ukraine has caused destruction and death, in addition to interrupting the supply of some key goods, but in the coming years another disastrous effect will be seen more clearly: the interruption of international collaboration to resolve global issues. It’s climate change, cybersecurity and public health issues.

It is a global map that the Davos Economic Forum gives us. It is also a mirror that we can look into and ask questions. How does the increase in global geoeconomic/geopolitical tension affect Mexico? In recent months, an oversimplified vision has been imposed in which only the advantages of the distance between the United States and China are considered. We will have the relocation and investments will arrive, of course, but that happens because we are in the orbit of one of the powers in conflict. What should we do? In the risk map published on page 19 of the WEF document, Mexico and Canada are painted in orange, below the United States, which is painted in red. The opportunities are in sight but the risks are a little more hidden. There is a large increase in military budgets in almost all countries and a growing development of digital attack strategies. How do we learn to detect, manage and reduce this type of new risk?

Polarization and the erosion of social cohesion is a risk that has risen up the WEF lists. It is at number five and is fed by the mismanagement of other risks: The increase in the cost of living; the extreme phenomena associated with climate disorder, inequality, unwanted migration, the deterioration of mental health…the abuse of information technologies to spread misinformation or sow disinformation. There is no society that can escape this malaise. Growing polarization contributes to the decline of democracies, the document says: The percentage of the world’s population living in autocratic regimes rose from 5% in 2011 to 36% in 2021.

Deep divisions in societies encourage the adoption of more extreme political platforms that seek short-term results and disregard long-term consequences. It is a clash between value systems, where polarization is reinforced, while institutions are weakened. The space to find collective solutions to social problems is shrinking. Does any of this sound familiar or does it seem like we are talking about another country, another time, another world?

lmgonzalez@eleconomista.com.mx