Would we come close to nuclear war if the US and Germany delivered heavy weapons to Ukraine?

Berlin’s reluctance to allow the delivery of German-made Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine has a valid reason: avoiding NATO involvement in the war.

In fact, the announcement by the United States on December 22, during the visit of the Ukrainian president to the White House, may also represent NATO involvement in the conflict, since President Biden promised to deliver a battery of long-range Patriot anti-missile.

Until December 22, the United States had resisted delivering the Patriot system, one of the most advanced in the world.

Patriot can intercept and shoot down Russian ballistic missiles and also hit targets much further away, between 40 and 160 kilometers, depending on the type of missile used.

Now, the Patriots are joined by Leopard 2 tanks. International pressure, in recent days, has become almost unbearable for Germany to deliver such tanks to Ukraine. Poland has been the main critic.

“Germany’s attitude is unacceptable. It’s been almost a year since the war started. There are innocent people dying every day,” Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said Sunday.

On several occasions, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has recalled “the dramatic consequences of two world wars that originated in Germany” to justify his cautious profile in the delivery of arms to Ukraine.

Germany understands that its participation in the war, through the Leopard 2 anti-missiles, could contribute to a nuclear conflict from Russia. “This is a scenario that would not favor anyone. All parties would lose”, comments Alan Ponce, official of the Agency for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons in Latin America and the Caribbean (OPANAL).

The use of nuclear weapons would immediately become an incentive for countries like India, Pakistan and North Korea to obtain the atomic weapon.

“Weapons that are detonated at high altitudes produce different effects than weapons used on the ground,” said Dylan Spaulding, director of the US-based Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) Global Security Program (DW , November 14, 2022). The deadly element would be radioactive fallout. The Chernobyl zone is still radioactive and uninhabitable.

Alex Wellerstein, a nuclear weapons historian at the Stevens Institute of Technology in New Jersey, created the Nukemap website where he reveals some projections about the use of nuclear weapons in a possible war between Russia and the United States: 360 million immediate deaths and more than five One billion people would go without food for two years after a nuclear war.

Germany is right to reflect on the implications of a nuclear war.

For their part, Mexico and its allies must also reflect on the consequences of an escalation in the war.