ISR collection continues to dazzle; grew 9.8% in January

The collection of the tax helps to compensate the losses that exist in the collection of other taxes. In January 2022 there was a 10.6% growth in ISR, which implies a high comparison base and despite this comparison, the collection in January 2023 was almost 10%”.

Janneth Quiroz, deputy director of economic analysis at Monex.

Income Tax (ISR) collection in January of this year grew 9.8% annually, in real terms, registering 253,012 million pesos, according to the Public Finance and Public Debt Report of the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit. (SHCP).

The SHCP explained in the report that the growth rate registered in January exceeds the average of 3.5% of the last five years.

The data from the secretariat specify that the ISR collection was 16,821 million pesos above what was programmed in the 2023 Federation Income Law.

The official numbers reveal that in January the income tax collection spun two years with annual increases.

In addition, the data shows that the collection from this tax represented 58.5% of the 432,391 million pesos that were collected through tax revenue at the end of the first month of the year. This contrasts with the 56.2% that it reached as a proportion of tax revenues in the same period last year.

“The ISR has become the star tax. The collection of the tax helps to compensate the losses that exist in the collection of other taxes. In January 2022, ISR grew 10.6%, which implies a high comparison base, and despite this comparison, collection in January 2023 was almost 10%,” Janneth Quiroz, deputy director of economic analysis, told this space. in Monex.

Although the Value Added Tax accounted for 123,342 million pesos, an annual increase of 1.8% in real terms, it was 21,663 million pesos below the estimate. The Special Tax on Production and Services fell 6.6% real annual although it was 1,190 million pesos above the projected 40,603 million pesos.

The collection of Income Tax shows a more positive start to the year than previously thought in terms of economic activity and the actions of the tax authority to combat tax evasion, said the analyst.

“These two factors are driving the collection of ISR with this growth of 9.8%, which is important considering that it is the one that has the greatest weight in tax revenues,” he commented.

employment boosts

James Salazar, deputy director of economic analysis at CI Banco, agreed, in part, that the annual increase in the amount of the ISR is a consequence of an improvement in economic activity in Mexico.

“Employment, in general terms, maintains a good dynamic and this sustains the growth rate that was brought from last year (in tax collection),” he told this medium.

For the CI Banco analyst, it is very likely that the dynamism of the labor sector, but in particular with those affiliated with the Mexican Social Security Institute, will continue during the first quarter of the year and therefore will have an impact on the collection of ISR.

Manufacturing exports

The Monex analyst specified that, based on the Trade Balance of Merchandise for January, manufacturing exports grew 7.1% compared to December 2022, which has allowed for greater ISR collection.

While in annual comparison, the value of manufacturing exports registered a growth of 28.3%, in real terms, accounting for 37,321 million dollars, according to figures from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography.

Economic activity in the United States maintains exports with good dynamism, which explains these results, despite fears that there will be an economic slowdown that would affect tax collection because more than 80% of exports are sent to that country. Quiroz maintained.

The ISR comes from a good year

It should be remembered that the ISR collection comes from 2022 with a considerable performance, since it reached a historical maximum at 2.27 trillion pesos, which represented 8.0% of the Gross Domestic Product. In addition, it registered the highest growth since 2016, with an annual rate of 11% in real terms.

The collection of income tax registered 198,083 million pesos only in December 2022, which meant a contraction of 13.2% per year, the most significant drop since December 2001.

In January, tax revenues increased 5.5% in real terms compared to what was registered in the first month of 2022. With the above, it broke two years in a row registering annual contractions in said month. In the referred period, 432,391 million pesos were registered.

santiago.renteria@eleconomista.mx