Nearshoring and violence, reality check

When it seemed that the government was finally able to successfully promote a positive economic narrative about Mexico abroad, selling the new “Mexican moment” that was going to capitalize on nearshoring, reality hit us.

The kidnapping of the four North American citizens and the death of two of them is not something atypical. Just look at the country’s kidnapping and missing persons statistics to know that it happens every day throughout the country. As is well known—perhaps hypocritically—for the media, society, and US politicians, the kidnapping and now murder of their fellow citizens in foreign countries is no small matter. As Mexican correspondents Ariel Moutsatsos and José Diaz Briseño reported on Twitter on Monday night, the kidnapping was headline news on all the major US networks’ nightly news.

As if that were not enough, this tragedy, which I repeat is an everyday occurrence in our country, takes place a week after the publication of the article by Donald Trump’s ex-prosecutor, William Barr, in the WSJ where he demands that the US government declare the cartels as terrorist agents. At the same time, because when it rains it pours, Congressman Dan Crenshaw introduced an aberrational draft resolution to “authorize the use of the Armed Forces of the United States against those responsible for trafficking fentanyl into the United States.” Although Barr and Crenshaw’s proposals happen in a campaign context and have little chance of materializing, they matter. They create a narrative, together with the aforementioned news and the fentanyl crisis of a failed state, and whether we like it or not, this influences decision makers.

The narrative created by the coverage in the US media about what, make no mistake, is the security reality in our country, is an impediment for us to capitalize on the historic opportunity that nearshoring represents. El Financiero already reported it on Monday with a note headed “Insecurity threatens to ‘stop’ the progress of nearshoring in Mexico.” According to data from the DataInt consultancy, in 2022 8,834 cargo thefts were committed, an average of 24 per day. One of the most dangerous road points for cargo transport is in Puebla, where a large part of the merchandise that arrives at the port of Veracruz, crucial in the value chains, has to pass through. The cities and states that are receiving a large part of the investment —such as Tijuana, Reynosa, Juárez and Guanajuato— are considered by DataInt as “hotspots” due to their levels of violence and others, such as SLP, due to cargo theft. Without going any further, in Nuevo Laredo, where the Army murdered five young people last week, is where 40% of the country’s exports to the US pass through.

As I have pointed out in this space before, yes, Mexico is facing a great opportunity. But once again, if we do not create the necessary conditions to trigger investment and growth, we will be left with the desire again. Perhaps for the maquila the security disaster that prevails in the country does not matter so much. But, to capture more components of the value chains and have better jobs, yes. Consider the decision of where to invest, which involves redeploying US personnel to a place that all the news reports—perhaps hypocritically and without mentioning the role of US weapons—paint as a war zone. What would you do?