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(Trends Wide) — Just a third of Americans say President Joe Biden deserves re-election, according to a new Trends Wide poll by SSRS, while most in his party say they’d like to see someone else run for president next year. .
The poll was conducted throughout the month of March and was nearly completed before a Manhattan grand jury voted to indict former President Donald Trump last week. It cannot reflect any change in public opinion following news of that vote. The Trends Wide poll, conducted after the vote and released Monday, suggests it had little effect on views of Trump himself.
The March poll suggests that, just before the impeachment, the rally in opinion about Biden, which appeared to have been sparked by Democrats exceeding expectations in the 2022 midterm elections, had stalled. According to the poll, Biden’s approval rating is 42%, with 57% disapproving.
In January, 45% approved and 55% disapproved. This change falls within the survey’s margin of error and is not statistically significant.
On important issues, Biden’s numbers are also stagnant. Her approval ratings on immigration (35%), the economy (37%) and gun policy (37%) are well below his overall approval rating. When it comes to national security (44%) and the US relationship with China (40%), her numbers are about the same as his overall approval rating. The only issue where Biden significantly outperforms his overall position is environmental policy, and even there the majority disapproves (46% approve, 52% disapprove).
The poll also reveals that negative views of Biden persist across several personal attributes, with majorities saying he lacks the stamina and acumen to serve effectively as president (67%), does not inspire confidence (65%), is not honest nor trustworthy (54%) and does not care about people like them (54%). Americans are more divided on whether Biden can work effectively with Congress: 48% say yes, 51% no.
In all, just 32% say Biden deserves re-election to the presidency, down 5 points from December and nearly on par with the 33% who said the same about Trump in November 2017. The biggest changes are among younger adults, where just 26% of those under 35 think Biden deserves another term, down from 36% in December, and among liberals, up from 63% saying he deserved re-election in December to 53% now.
In general, the vast majority of people who approve of a president’s performance also say that president deserves reelection, but the new poll suggests that an unusually large group of people who approve of Biden currently say he doesn’t deserve reelection. In September 2019, 3% of all Americans fell into that category for Trump, and only 5% did so in March 2010 under President Barack Obama. For Biden, that number is significantly higher: 11% overall approve of Biden’s handling of the presidency and also say he doesn’t deserve re-election.
This group differs from Biden’s staunchest supporters in key ways: Despite approving of his overall run for president, most of this group have significant doubts about his stamina for the job (70% say he lacks the stamina and acumen to serve effectively as president) and his ability to inspire trust (62% say he does not inspire trust). This “thanks, but no thanks” group is also nearly 30 points less likely than others who approve of Biden to say they approve of his handling of the economy.
Compared to others who approve of Biden, those in this group are also more likely to be politically independent (57% identify as independent, compared to 36% who approve and want him re-elected) and younger. (64% are under 45, compared to 37% who approve and want him re-elected.) They are also much less likely to be registered voters (60% say they are registered to vote, compared to 86% among those who approve and want Biden to be re-elected), which could mean that they ultimately do not participate in the presidential election, and in In a close race, Biden would need a strong turnout among those who approve of his performance.
Most Democrats want a different candidate, but less than before
Among registered voters who are Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents, a majority (54%) say they would like to see the Democratic party nominate someone other than Biden in 2024, while 44% say Biden should be the nominee. Despite the stagnation in general views on the president, this is an improvement for him. In December, 59% said they would prefer a different candidate, and last summer, that number was 75%. The rise in support comes mostly among college graduates (from 32% who wanted Biden re-elected in December to 45% today) and among Democratic-leaning independents (from 22% in December to 36% now). .
As in other recent Trends Wide polls, few of those who say they would like to see someone else lead the Democratic ticket have a specific candidate in mind to replace him. About 7 in 10 in that group say they generally want to see someone other than Biden, and no individual candidate is named by more than 5% of those seeking an alternative candidate. Those named by more than 1% include Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders with 5%, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg with 4%, Vice President Kamala Harris and former First Lady Michelle Obama with 3% each. , and California Governor Gavin Newsom and Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren with 2% each.
Democratic voters are split on whether the party would have a better chance of winning in 2024 with Biden leading (49%) or a better chance with someone else (49%). Biden’s strongest supporters on this question are Democratic-aligned voters 65 and older (65% say the party would have a better chance with Biden than anyone else), while 61% of those under 45 years old says the party would have a better chance of winning with someone else.
The poll also mirrored other national polls conducted before Trump’s impeachment that found growing support for the former president as the Republican Party’s nominee (52% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters said they thought he should be the nominee). ahead of another unnamed candidate, up from a low of 38% in December). A sizable portion of those looking for a different candidate named Florida Governor Ron DeSantis when asked if there was someone specific they’d like to see nominated (28% who want to see another candidate lead the race named him without being told). I would ask him). Pro-Republican voters were also divided in the pre-impeachment poll on whether the party would have a better chance with Trump leading the race or whether someone else would have a better chance of winning.
The poll found that Republicans and Republican-leaning voters were more likely to be more hopeful for the 2024 election than Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters (54% among Republican-leaning Americans, 26% on the Democratic side). .
The Trends Wide poll was conducted by SSRS from March 1 to March 31 among a random national sample of 1,595 adults initially reached by mail. Surveys were conducted online or over the phone with a live interviewer. Results for the full sample have a sampling error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points; is larger for subgroups.
Ariel Edwards-Levy contributed to this reporting.
