Banxico will maintain rate at 11.25% in May: Citibanamex Survey

He Bank of Mexico (Banxico) would maintain the reference rate at 11.25% in May, considered analysts consulted by citibanamex.

The Citibanamex Survey of Expectations, which the institution publishes every 15 days, showed that only nine of the 32 participants anticipate that the next movement in the monetary policy rate will take place in May.

This implies that 72% of the participants believe that Banxico will maintain the target rate at 11.25% this month.

The report specifies that the estimated medians for the magnitude and date of the next movement in the reference rate are a cut of 25 basis points and December of this year, respectively.

In this sense, the consensus continues anticipating the target rate at the end of 2023 at 11.25% and at 8.50% by the end of 2024.

Inflation would continue with a downward trend

The Citibanamex Survey also showed that the interviewees forecast that in April, the National Consumer Price Index (INPC) decreased by 0.02% monthly, which implies an annual rate of 6.25% (6.85% annual registered in March).

In this sense, annual inflation is forecast to decrease further during May, to an annual rate of 6 percent.

With this, the expectations for general inflation at the end of 2023 decreased to 5.02% from 5.13% previously.

eduardo.juarez@eleconomista.mx