(Trends Wide) — The first Republican primary debate won’t take place until August. The initial primaries and caucuses won’t happen until early next year.
But the 2024 presidential primary campaign is well underway.
There is a growing field of candidates who will begin traveling the early states of the primaries, appearing in interviews and vying for attention. Super PACs (political action committees) aligned with their interests are already doing battle on the airwaves.
These are the currently declared Republican presidential candidates, ordered by their place in Trends Wide’s most recent poll of the potential GOP primary electorate.
Donald Trump
Campaign announcement date: November 2022
The divisive former president is the leading Republican candidate despite his efforts to overturn the 2020 election he lost. The primaries are just getting started and there won’t be a vote until early 2024, but Trump has worked hard to defeat his current main rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
A major complication for Trump is his legal insecurity. His criminal trial in New York for alleged involvement in a secret money payment scheme ahead of the 2016 election will begin alongside voting in the 2024 primary.
He could face additional charges, both at the federal level and in Fulton County, Georgia. But those investigations have been ongoing for years, and it’s not clear that the allegations hurt their strength among many Republican voters.
Ron DeSantis
Campaign announcement date: May 24, on Twitter
While Trump and his supporters went to work hitting DeSantis with television ads, the Florida governor was working to build a case in his home state.
Riding on top of a landslide re-election victory in 2022, DeSantis used a Republican majority in the Florida Legislature to enact measures related to curbing abortion access, ending educational diversity initiatives, reining in LGBTQ rights and more.
While he lacks Trump’s baggage on the legal front, DeSantis also lacks Trump’s persona. Plus, his standoff with Disney over a bill to limit when sexual orientation and gender identity can be discussed in schools hasn’t gone quite as DeSantis might have planned.
Nikki Haley
Nikki Haley stood up for the Confederate flag at an event in 2010.
Campaign announcement date: February 2023
Haley has a stellar resume. Elected governor of a southern state and selected as Trump’s first ambassador to the United Nations, she would be the first woman and the first non-white Republican nominee if she can somehow come out of the running for the GOP nominee. .
Much younger than Trump or President Joe Biden, Haley has made age a centerpiece of her campaign and advocated for some sort of age-based competency test: an interesting idea in terms of scoring points against older candidates, but also a possible bias for primary voters in an older-biased party.
Stay tuned: Trends Wide will host a live forum with Haley on June 4, in Iowa.
Tim Scott
Campaign announcement date: May 2023
The South Carolina senator is the only black Republican in the US Senate. He has constructed the biography of his biography to argue that he disrupts the narrative of American politics.
Though he is attractive to conservatives, Scott has a history of working across party lines on police reform and more. But Trump, at least, hasn’t seen him as a threat. The former president, who has mercilessly attacked DeSantis, congratulated Scott on running for the Republican nomination.
Vivek Ramaswamy
Campaign announcement date: February 2023
Ramaswamy, a biotech and health care entrepreneur who also writes books opposing corporate “woke” ideology and identity politics, is an unlikely candidate, unknown to most Americans.
Asa Hutchison
Campaign announcement date: April 2023
The former governor and congressman from Arkansas announced his campaign arguing against isolationism and in favor of civility on the campaign trail. Those messages have yet to catch on in the polls.
Larry Elder
Campaign announcement date: April 2023
The conservative radio host has never held elective office, but he was the top-voting Republican in the failed 2021 effort to impeach California Gov. Gavin Newsom.
more to come
There are other Republicans considering campaigns. Former Vice President Mike Pence, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum also rank in single digits in Trends Wide’s most recent poll.
Polls show Trump over DeSantis right now very early
DeSantis (26%) ranks a distant second to Trump (53%), according to the new Trends Wide poll, conducted nationwide by SSRS, among Republican and Republican-leaning voters released Wednesday.
Both Pence and Haley drew 6% support as their first pick.
Who could the Republican electorate support? Could you not support it?
There are some interesting points as you dig into the polling data, as Trends Wide Political Director David Chalian explained on “Inside Politics.”
“We asked people, other than their first choice, who would they be willing to support in this race,” Chalian said.
The results (current top choice plus who they would consider supporting) are a bit different:
DeSantis: 85 %.
Trump: 84 %.
Haley: 61 %.
Scott: 60 %.
Others: 54%.
That is good news for those candidates, Chalian argued. On the other hand, it’s bad news for the people most Republican and Republican-leaning voters said they wouldn’t support:
Christie: 60% would not support it.
Hutchinson: 55 %.
Names: 55 %.
Keep in mind that the top three on the “would not support” list, of which only Hutchinson has declared an official candidacy, are the most moderate voices in the party.
look at the movement
Chalian also looked at the record of the candidates in the polls.
Trump has gained, from 40% support in the potential primary electorate of the Republican Party, in March, to 53%, now.
DeSantis, before formally declaring his campaign, has fallen from 36% support in March to 26% now.
That could mean the Republican race will ultimately be a test of who can take on Trump.
