A New York Times report believes that Tehran, whose leaders have pledged for four decades to destroy Israel, is now facing a test of its credibility, and whether its decision and its agents in the region live up to their fiery rhetoric.
The report, written by the newspaper’s New York-based correspondent, Farnaz Fassehi, indicates that if Iran does nothing, its “enthusiastic” leaders risk losing their credibility among voters and allies, especially with internal voices in Iran questioning why their country’s actions do not match its rhetoric in the country. Release Jerusalem“.
You do not want a regional war
According to three Iranians linked to the government and familiar with internal deliberations, the report says that Iran does not want a regional war, because that carries risks for Tehran and its rulers.
The report also revealed that senior leaders Quds Force AndHizb allah They believe that if Israel succeeds in eliminating the Islamic Resistance Movement (agitation), you will go after them after that.
It also quoted the same sources, who requested anonymity to discuss sensitive security issues, that Iran and Hezbollah are monitoring whether Hamas faces a serious existential threat from Israel, which may prompt them to accelerate attacks on Israel.
Although Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon andHouthi group In Yemen, they recently launched attacks on Israel, but they were limited in scope.
Keeping the Israeli army under pressure
People familiar with the Iranian strategy said that the goal currently is not all-out war, but rather to keep the Israeli army under pressure, which could limit its ability to strike Hamas.
The New York Times considered that the confrontation with Israel may significantly weaken the military capabilities of pro-Iranian groups, especially if the American army intervenes.
The New York Times quoted a recent interview with the Iranian Foreign Minister Hussein Amir Abdullahian In New York, he said, “We do not seek to expand this war.”
The region has reached boiling point
Abdullahian, who confirmed that his country is exchanging messages with the United States, added that “the region has reached the boiling point and at any moment it may explode,” adding that “if that happens, all parties will lose control.”
The New York Times believes that Tehran wants to put pressure on the US President’s administration joe biden To rein in Israel, or at least appear to make the United States pay a price for its strong support for Israel.
Iran views the militias as extended arms of influence in the region, capable of directing strikes while granting Tehran a degree of deniability.
Calculated escalation
The newspaper says that the militias give Tehran influence in international negotiations and a means to tilt the balance of power in the Middle East from its enemies.
Ali Fayez of the International Crisis Group said Iran may try to solve this cycle by allowing its allies to escalate their attacks against Israel and the United States in a measured way.
He added that for nearly 4 decades, Iran’s defense policy has succeeded in protecting its territory against foreign attacks, while the conflict in Gaza represents a test of the limits of that policy in an unprecedented way.
