Related Post
Beirut- Lebanon is awaiting with great caution the course of the Israeli aggression on Gaza, the scenarios for expanding the war towards it, and the shape of the stage that will follow the first speech by Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah after the “Al-Aqsa Flood” operation tomorrow, Friday, as confrontations continue between the party and the occupation army along the border strip.
At this time, the Lebanese authorities are busy discussing the “National Emergency Plan” prepared by the caretaker government, and have set a goal for it, which is to protect citizens from the repercussions of a widespread Israeli aggression and to secure their supplies and relief in the event of a large-scale forced displacement from their homes to safer places in Lebanon.
While the political forces’ debate is escalating over the state’s role in preventing Lebanon from sliding into war instead of developing plans to address its repercussions, the emergency plan faces major obstacles, especially in its funding sources, in light of the collapse of infrastructure and the worsening economic crisis.
In practice, the plan is based on standards and assumptions inspired by the experience of the July 2006 aggression, and will be implemented under the management of the “National Committee for Coordination of Disaster and National Crisis Response at the Presidency of the Council of Ministers,” the “Coordination Committee with International Organizations,” and the “Disaster Risk Management Unit.”
Content of the plan
According to its text, the plan deals with what may result from Israeli aggression according to assumptions inspired by the 2006 war, which are as follows:
- Forced displacement of one million Lebanese for a period extending over 45 days.
- The need for collective shelter centers to accommodate 20% of the displaced, or about 200,000 people.
- Putting pressure on the health sector and securing humanitarian supplies for the displaced in shelter centers.
- Naval and air blockade.
The plan also looks at addressing the needs of three categories of Lebanese: displaced Lebanese in shelter centers, displaced Lebanese in private apartments and homes, and the Lebanese host community.
The circumstances of any potential war will differ from those of 2006, especially since the reality of asylum is one of Lebanon’s biggest challenges, and while there are about 174,000 Palestinian refugees distributed among 12 camps, the number of Syrian refugees is more than 1.5 million people.
The government is still unable to implement the plan for the return of Syrians to their country in light of the international rejection of it and the Syrian regime’s lack of response to return proposals.
Therefore, the plan includes an approach to 3 other population groups in cooperation with the relevant United Nations organizations to support these groups, which are: Palestinian refugees with UNRWA, Syrian refugees with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, and foreign workers with the United Nations Migration Organization.
In light of the expansion of confrontations between Hezbollah and the occupation army, the International Organization for Migration recently reported the displacement of about 29,000 people in Lebanon as a result of the escalation in the border area.
The UNHCR also reported that there are about 59,159 Syrian refugees in the south registered with it, while the actual number is many times that, because the UNHCR has stopped registering refugees since 2015.
Accordingly, the response in the plan was divided into 8 sectors, each of which is under the supervision of the relevant ministry, in coordination with international organizations, the most important of which are UNICEF, the World Health Organization, the High Commissioner for Refugees, and some of these organizations’ partners on the ground.
The plan focuses on ways to provide and sustain fuel, water, communications, electricity, and road safety, and how to ensure the workflow and mobility of ambulance, civil defense, and relief teams.
the biggest challenge
Concern is growing over the ability of the health sector in Lebanon to respond to those affected and wounded if war erupts, especially as it suffers from sagging, a decline in the level of services and equipment, and a shortage of medicines due to the economic and financial crisis, in contrast to the widespread emigration recorded among the ranks of doctors and nurses. Since the collapse has worsened.
Lebanese Health Minister Firas Al-Abyad participated in developing the “emergency plan,” and rejects the criticism that describes it as ink on paper due to the lack of resources and ambiguity of funding.
Al-Abyad said in an interview with Al-Jazeera Net that the government had justifications for not developing a plan as it was in a caretaker position and facing difficulties with financing, “but it wanted to bear responsibility before the Lebanese people given the great dangers threatening them from the southern front.”
He added that the focus is on the health sector’s response to the war, as his ministry has a plan to receive the wounded and displaced people from the villages and towns of the border strip who need medical services, which prompted the ministry to activate a hotline for them.
Al-Abyad reports that the government allocated $11 million to his ministry, in addition to about $12 million from the state bank loan. He goes back to the experience of 2006, when the number of war-wounded reached about 11,000, and the Ministry of Health at that time incurred about $4 million to treat them.
Regarding hospitals, Al-Abyad indicates that they were divided into 3 categories: equipped, moderately equipped, and weak.
Al-Abyad spoke about the complete readiness of about 40 hospitals for the dangers of war, and about increasing the readiness of doctors and nurses, in addition to cooperation with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees and the United Nations Relief and Relief Agency (UNRWA) for the medical response to refugees.
Financing obstacles
The plan did not mention the value of the funds allocated to it, and the government discussed the financing aspect without resolving the issue of its value and sources.
With experts suggesting that the state will be unable to provide the necessary funding if war breaks out – whether from its treasury or from international bodies and organizations – the data indicate the Ministry of Finance’s efforts to open a credit worth approximately two million dollars.
In this context, Diana Moneim, an expert in public policy and executive director of “We Are All Irada” (civil society), believes that the “emergency plan” in form only adopts the basic steps in any place in the event of war, while “it did not reflect an estimate of the level of war and the extent of its possible repercussions.” .
In an interview with Al Jazeera Net, the spokeswoman considered that the plan’s failure to mention the numbers of funds it needed was remarkable, compared to the discussion about its need for about 400 million dollars.
She says, “It is strange that the plan announces its expected dependence on the state treasury and international organizations, while it did not receive confirmed promises from the latter regarding its response, amid the global political division over this war and the reduction of its allocations to Lebanon for some time.”
And remember that in the 2024 budget, revenues can barely cover expenses, “that is, there is a great difficulty in relying on the treasury, which may lead to the printing of the lira in the Central Bank of Lebanon or harming its reserves.”
From Menem’s point of view, it is difficult to rely on a plan without guaranteed and clear funding sources, and in light of the collapse of the economy and the banking sector, because Lebanon 2023 is in a much worse situation than Lebanon 2006, according to her, and “it does not have the slightest elements of steadfastness outside of military logic, which… “It may make his fate bleak if Israel launches a devastating aggression against him similar to its aggression against the Gaza Strip.”
