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Occupied Jerusalem- Political and military estimates in Israel unanimously agree that there is no clear strategy for Tel Aviv regarding the future Gaza strip Post-war, except as stated by the Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahuthat Israel will maintain security control over the Strip for an unlimited period.
The lack of clarity of this strategy comes amidst the intensification of ground battles between the Palestinian resistance and the occupation forces in northern Gaza, and amid varying statements about the goals of the war between the military level, which declared that its goal was to dismantle Hamas’ military capacity, while the political level went too far with the ceiling of its goals to end the rule of the Hamas movement and eliminate its ability. Military and political.
Amid this discrepancy, the security and military estimates of Israeli analysts unanimously agreed that the first phase of the ground incursion into the northern Gaza Strip has not ended, and has not yet achieved its goals. She indicated that there are still more stages to achieve the goals, including a ground operation in the south of the Gaza Strip, a battle that will be more difficult than what is being witnessed in the north of the Strip.
The new security situation
The researcher on Israeli affairs, Antoine Shalhat, believes that there is no clear and specific strategy for Israel regarding the future of Gaza after the war, except for those positions that Netanyahu stated and received legitimacy from the American administration, which are to involve Israel in the new security situation that will arise in Gaza on the assumption that it achieved the goals of the war.
Accordingly, Shalhat tells Al Jazeera Net that all the scenarios presented and the plans promoted by the political and military leadership in Tel Aviv, raise many question marks about the possibility of achieving the goals of the war, whether overthrowing the government agitation Or weaken it and undermine its military and political power, “noting that the ceiling of goals is high and achieving them seems difficult.”
Regarding the military strategies for the ground incursion battle in the Gaza Strip, Shalhat explained that dismantling Hamas’s military capacity is still far-fetched, especially since the army is in the first phase of the ground incursion battle in northern Gaza, which is witnessing fierce battles with the Palestinian resistance, and these are the clashes that prevent progress towards the start of the phase. the second.
A long-term battle
Shalhat enumerated Israeli scenarios related to the future of Gaza after the war, whether Israel would maintain security control and occupy the Strip, “which is not possible because it occupied the Strip for decades and fled the place,” as well as the scenario of establishing a security belt along the border with the Gaza Strip, similar to the security belt in the south. Lebanon, from which it withdrew in 2000.
Amid these scenarios, the researcher on Israeli affairs says, “The plans to dismantle the population density of the Gaza Strip come under different names, and they are another aspect of voluntary displacement, and in order to achieve them, there is a need for the approval and cooperation of other parties, as there are no such parties ready to cooperate with Israel to displace.” Residents of Gaza.
Regarding the realistic extent of the Israeli military and political plans regarding the future of Gaza and the possibility of achieving them, Shalhat says, “The war is not over yet, and the Palestinian resistance has not said its decisive word, as it has military capabilities that enable it to impose a long-term battle with Israel.”
Hamas did not fall
In reading the dimensions of the Israeli military operations in the Gaza Strip, Yoav Limor, a military analyst for the newspaper “Israel Hayom”, believes that the rubble indicates that “Gaza is no longer the same place, but it has not collapsed yet, and Hamas has not fallen.” However, what the Gaza Strip is going through is unprecedented by all standards: the destruction, the force of fire, and the intensity of the bombing have never happened before.
The military analyst explained that if Israel insists on raids and devastating bombing, there may be an opportunity to achieve the goals set by the political level of the war by undermining Hamas’ rule politically and militarily, but he believes that this will require determination, difficult decisions, and obtaining “legitimacy,” as well as time and luck.
As for victory in this military campaign, Limor says, “It will not be achieved in one picture. Even if Yahya Al-Sinwar or Muhammad Al-Deif are liquidated, the war will continue. It will take months to break the joints of political rule and military power of Hamas, followed by years of continuing activities and work.” Which ensures that she will not recover and rehabilitate again.”
Forced displacement plan
In parallel with the military scenarios and the first phase of the ground incursion, which is receiving fierce resistance from fighters from the Palestinian resistance factions, the Israeli political level proposes a new scenario that pushes towards reducing the population density in the Gaza Strip, which has become known as “disguised transfer.”
This proposal coincides with the forced displacement plan drawn up by the Israeli Ministry of Intelligence at the start of the war on Gaza, as it recommended occupying the Gaza Strip and displacing the Palestinians to Sinai, which is consistent with the assessment of the position issued by the Misgav Institute for “National Security and Zionist Strategy,” prepared by researcher Rafael. Ben Levy.
The Misgav Institute, which is close to Netanyahu, recommends that Israel should exploit the war in order to push the Gazan population to voluntary migration during the battles, and then work to dismantle the population density of the Gaza Strip and displace the population to Sinai and foreign countries.
Generation of Hamas ideology
Israeli researcher Ben Levy attributed the recommendations to dismantling population density and transferring residents to different countries, saying, “There is an entire generation living in Gaza today that grew up on the ideology of Hamas. Gaza lacks any local opposition movement to Hamas that can rule in its place.”
In addition, Ben Levy says, “The Palestinian Authority is a body hostile to Israel, and does not even enjoy the support of the majority of Palestinians in the West Bank. The current model of Palestinian governance in the West Bank is unstable, and therefore cannot be copied in Gaza.”
According to the recommendations of the Misgav Institute, if the scenario of overthrowing Hamas’ rule in Gaza is achieved, there is no long-term possibility of the emergence of Israeli military rule in the Strip, nor even the formation of a Palestinian Arab government committed to living next to Israel.
Therefore, Ben Levy says, “It is very possible that Hamas, or any other entity hostile to Israel, will return to control the Gaza Strip in the coming years, and this in itself would be a historic failure, a fatal blow to the national ability to withstand, and an existential threat to Israel’s future.”
