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Only less than four months separate Turkish voters from the municipal elections. Therefore, it was natural to begin serious talk about the elections, which are second in importance to the presidential and legislative elections, all of which shape the country’s political future for years to come.
In the next few days, the white thread will become clear from the black regarding the candidates, alliances, and features of the electoral battle.
The Justice and Development Party’s obtaining a majority is not a matter of doubt or debate, as the results of the last municipal elections in March 2019, their numbers reflect a major sweep for the party alone, and for the public alliance that included the party and the National Movement Party.
But these numbers have faded; Due to the party’s loss of major, important municipalities with great symbolism, most notably the municipalities of Istanbul, Ankara, Antalya, Diyarbakir, Mersin, Adana and others.
So, the most prominent topic of next March’s elections – which is widely discussed in official and popular Turkey – revolves around the Justice and Development Party’s ability to regain the presidency of major municipalities, most notably Istanbul and Ankara?
What does Erdogan have up his sleeve?
Whoever follows the statements of the Turkish President regarding the mayorship of Istanbul – since losing it in 2019 – will not need an effort to realize that this loss left a negative impact on him, and he will only go away by regaining it again.
At a meeting of the heads of the Justice and Development Party’s branches at the end of last November, he confirmed that the party’s main goal was to regain Istanbul and Ankara.
If we follow Erdogan’s statements during the recent period, and his movements within his party, we can draw a comprehensive picture of the strategy that he will adopt during these elections and its most prominent features:
Firstly: Taking advantage of the broad victory achieved by the People’s Alliance last May – which enabled it to seize the majority of parliamentary seats and the presidency for a second term – by giving its alliance a major boost in the major cities.
secondly: Exploiting the mistakes committed by the mayors of Istanbul and Ankara: Ekrem Imamoglu and Mansur Yavaş, during the past five years, especially in Istanbul, where Imamoglu failed to confirm his suitability for the position; Because of his obsession with the dream of the presidency, he focused on promoting his person, at the expense of the demands of the residents of Istanbul.
Therefore, services declined, and his assistants did not succeed in running the work system within the city, as it was during the presidency of the Justice and Development Party.
Third: Strengthening the public alliance through the most important partner, the Nationalist Movement Party, as Erdogan met with the party’s head, Devlet Bahçeli, recently at the presidential palace.
But in my opinion, the continuation of the “Welfare Again” party, headed by Fatih Erbakan, in the coalition is questionable, as the indicators coming from the party, so far, indicate the possibility of it running in the elections alone.
As for the Free Dawa Party “Hada Bar” – a conservative Kurdish party, which was the most prominent emerging party in last May’s elections – it is estimated that it will continue its rise in the municipal elections, as the Public Alliance needs it to make a breakthrough in the Kurdish voter bloc in Istanbul in particular, and also in the states. southeast.
Unlike the elitist “Welfare Again” party, the “Free Call” party enjoys a clear populist presence, thanks to its many activities, the most recent of which is its good interaction with the Israeli aggression on Gaza. The party also enjoys the presence of active youth cadres, whether on the ground or on social media sites. .
Fourthly: Choosing competent candidates, and this is the most important point, as the announcement of the names of the party’s candidates – according to Erdogan – will begin in the middle of this month.
What has been preoccupying public opinion for some time now are the party’s two candidates for mayor of Istanbul and Ankara, in particular.
In Istanbul, speculation is revolving around the name of the former Minister of Urban Planning, Murat Kurum, who is distinguished by his young age and has a long track record in rebuilding areas struck by natural disasters, the most recent of which is the states that were struck by the devastating earthquake last February, where he began the reconstruction process immediately, before… To resign to run for parliamentary elections.
The name of the current Minister of Health, Fahrettin Koca, was also put forward, who has demonstrated clear success in dealing with the Corona pandemic crisis, but his academic training may not suit the nature of the work of municipalities.
But in my estimation, the person closest to the candidacy is Tevfik Koksu, the twin brother of the Turkish ambassador to Qatar, Mehmet Mustafa Koksu. Tevfik demonstrated great competence during his presidency of the Esenler Municipality in Istanbul. He also holds the position of head of the Justice and Development Party group in the Istanbul Municipal Council, and he caused… Akram Imamoglu has been a great annoyance over the past years, whether through discussions within the municipal council or in the media. He is also keenly aware of Istanbul’s problems and the development it needs.
As for Ankara, the opinion polls revolve around the names: Murat Kose, Turgut Altinok, and Hakan Han Ozcan, which are names that are not circulated in the Arab media.
Not everything Erdogan wishes he achieves!
In my estimation, the Justice and Development Party’s path to recovering the municipalities of Istanbul and Ankara will not be paved with roses, and the failure of the 2019 elections may be repeated again, even in light of the decline in the popularity of İmamoğlu and Mansur Yavaş.
In the presidential and parliamentary elections that took place last May, the opposition candidate, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, prevailed in the first round over Erdogan in Istanbul by a difference of about 2%, and in Ankara by more than 1%. Then he returned in the second round to increase the difference in Istanbul to more than 3%, and in Ankara to about 4%.
Many expected that Akram Imamoglu’s bad performance would cause Erdogan to sweep Istanbul in particular, but what happened was the opposite!! Kılıçdaroğlu excelled in municipalities considered strongholds for Turkish conservatives, such as: the municipalities of Eyup Sultan in the European section, and Uskudar in the Asian section, where Erdogan himself resides!!
While emphasizing the difference in criteria for selecting voters from presidential to municipal elections, these are indicators that can be relied upon.
Finally, if the results of the Anatolian provinces succeed in redressing the decline in the major cities in the presidential and parliamentary elections, the municipal elections will be held on the rule: “Help yourself.”
