The “Good” Party announced its intention to run in the upcoming local elections in Turkey alone without allying itself with the Republican People’s Party, unlike what happened in the 2019 elections. This came after a meeting of the party’s General Administrative Committee to discuss the issue of cooperation with the largest opposition parties, after an official request submitted. From the latter to cooperate in the local elections scheduled to be held at the end of next March.
the reasons
After cooperation in the local elections in 2019 and the contribution of the “Good” Party to the victory of the opposition – specifically the Republican People’s Party – to head important municipalities in the country, especially Istanbul and Ankara, and after the alliance in the recent presidential and parliamentary elections that witnessed public disagreements and the dissolution of the alliance after losing the presidential elections, and not By winning a majority in Parliament, the Al-Jadeed Party had announced its intention not to enter into a system of alliances and cooperation, and to run in the upcoming local elections alone.
However, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu’s loss of the presidency of the Republican People’s Party to Ozgur Ozal – the representative of the renewal movement in the party – revived hope for the possibility of cooperation between the two parties, especially since Ozal is close to the mayor of Greater Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu, who is known for his close closeness to Meral Akşener, head of the “Good” Party. “, as well as political support, as she wanted him to be a consensus candidate for the opposition in the presidential elections.
After winning the presidency of the Republican People’s Republic, Ozal visited the “Good” party and officially presented to it the idea of cooperating in the upcoming local elections, and Akşener left the final decision to the administrative body of her party, despite the previously announced position of refusing to cooperate.
The result of the vote in the body was overwhelmingly in favor of non-cooperation, as only 14 members agreed to cooperate – in a secret vote – while 35 members opposed it.
The stated reason for the “Good” Party’s decision is its desire to strengthen its presence and identity with the Turkish street and voters by running in the elections alone, from the standpoint that previous alliances, especially with the Republican People, had harmed the party and prevented it from presenting its independent identity and its own policies.
Therefore, the party’s participation in the upcoming local elections with its own candidates will give it the opportunity to address the street with its identity, vision, and independent speeches, and thus strengthen its presence in the political arena, regardless of its chances of winning the mayoralty.
Therefore, according to this vision, the “Good” Party does not see the upcoming local elections as a goal, but rather a station and a means to enhance its chances in the next presidential and parliamentary elections in 2028.
However, other factors cannot be ignored, as they played an important role in the party’s decision, most notably the large and public differences between it and the Republican People’s Party, specifically Kılıçdaroğlu, who imposed himself as a presidential candidate despite the public opposition from Akşener.
The party’s decision now is not just a response to the disagreements, or to the superior treatment of it only, but it is also a response and revenge for the attacks, exposure, and insults that the party and its president at that time were subjected to from the leaders, cadres, and supporters of the Republican People.
On the other hand, the “Good” party wants to assert its weight in the Turkish political arena, in terms of its impact on the opposition’s victory in the municipalities in 2019, specifically in Ankara and Istanbul, which was a matter of great controversy in the internal political arena, as well as in terms of the impact of its lack of alliance with the people. Republican in the upcoming elections, so that – in the event of the latter’s loss – he will have confirmed his role and weight in this context.
Repercussions
Based on the decision taken, the “Good” Party will run in the next local elections with its candidates in all 81 governorates, at the level of major cities and governorates, as well as sub-municipalities, a decision that will be difficult for it to reverse in the future. Although politics does not know the impossible.
This decision means that the CHP will lose the votes of the “Good” Party in the provinces of central Anatolia, where the nationalist movement is strong, which could be decisive in some major cities where competition is intense.
The task of the Mayor of Greater Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu, seems difficult and complex. He previously won by a small margin over the Justice and Development candidate
It is true that the voting base may not fully adhere to the party’s decision, but the party’s nationalist background, its recent self-discourse, and the nature of its cadres and supporters say; The commitment rate will be high.
Here – as mentioned above – the “Good” Party is not betting on winning important municipalities. His electoral presence does not qualify him to win any major city municipality, or perhaps even regular governorates.
Therefore, he may be satisfied with some sub-municipalities in the cities, as happened in the 2019 elections, in which he won the presidency of only 19 sub-municipalities in the governorates, in addition to six towns. Therefore, the main impact of his latest decision is not subjective and specific to him, but rather is related to the intense competition between the ruling Justice and Development Party and the opposition Republican People’s Party.
Therefore – in our opinion – this decision will have an impact in three important contexts:
- The first: favoring the Justice and Development Party over the Republican People in the municipalities that witnessed intense competition, and therefore the votes of the “Good” Party – which did not present candidates and supported the Republican People’s candidates – were influential in them. These are municipalities in which the chances of Justice and Development will be much greater than before, and the municipality The city of Antalya is a good example of this.
- Second: favoring the Justice and Development Party over its ally, the Nationalist Movement Party, in the municipalities of central Anatolia where the two parties compete. This is because the expected cooperation framework between the two parties is a repetition of the 2019 model, where the two parties support each other – by not presenting a candidate – in the governorates where the opposition has a great chance of winning, and they compete in municipalities where the opposition does not have a large presence, and therefore there is no fear of losing them due to competition.
- Third: The municipalities of Ankara and Istanbul deserve to be singled out from the first context. Because of their symbolic importance. The Justice and Development Party lost the two municipalities in 2019 to the Republican People, who were supported in those elections by many parties, most notably the “Good,” “Happiness,” and “Democrats” openly, and the (Kurdish) Peoples’ Democratic Party implicitly.
With the “Good” Party withdrawing its support, the ruling party’s chances of regaining the two municipalities are enhanced, especially since the difference between the two competitors in them in 2019 was not wide. This expectation is also supported by the fact that we are unlikely to support the small conservative parties of the Republican People’s Republic in these elections, after the breakup of the alliance with them, and as a result of the clear disagreement regarding the position on the aggression against Gaza as well.
It is also necessary to distinguish between the two cities. The chances of Mansur Yavaş retaining the presidency of the Greater Ankara Municipality seem great. Given his good performance in managing it, on the one hand, and on the other hand, his nationalist background, which could guarantee him the votes of an important portion of the supporters of the “Al-Jadeed” (nationalist) party, with or without the consent of its leadership, especially since the difference between him and the Justice and Development candidate in the previous elections was not marginal. .
On the other hand, the task of the Mayor of Greater Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu, seems difficult and complex. He won by a small margin over the Justice and Development candidate at the time (before the difference widened in the runoff).
His presidency of the municipality was also marred by great controversy over his involvement in politics at the expense of the municipality, as well as his performance in its presidency in general. Which means that his loss of the votes of the “Good” Party and the less present conservative parties will significantly weaken his chances, especially since the Justice and Development Party is expected to present a strong candidate for the most important municipality, and in light of the latter’s high morale after winning the last elections.
finally; There remains an important role for the Green Left Party – formerly the Peoples’ Democratic Party – in the city of Istanbul in particular, but the “Good” Party’s continuation of its position – by presenting its own candidate – means that the Republican People’s task of retaining the municipalities of Ankara and Istanbul will be difficult, and that the chances of the Justice and Development Party in regaining them will be difficult. – In addition to winning others – is much higher than before, especially in Istanbul, where the ruling party’s chances appear to be significantly higher than the opposition, according to current data, which are difficult to change much until the election date, unless the opposition conservative parties are able to present candidates capable of dispersing… A Justice and Development Party alliance, which is a weak possibility in any case.
