An international force to secure ships from the Houthis.. Will the Gaza war extend to the Red Sea? | Policy

About a week ago, a prominent leader in the group said Ansar Allah HouthisYoussef Al-Madani told a local radio station that the force that took control of the Israeli ship “Galaxy Leader” and took it to the port of Salif, western Yemen, was trained for two years to carry out similar operations.

Al-Madani commands the Fifth Military Region, which controls the western coast of Yemen, including the city Hodeidah Which the Houthis were desperate to preserve, despite the advance of forces loyal to the Yemeni government supported by the coalition at the end of 2018, before the international community pressed to conclude negotiations that ended with the Stockholm Agreement between the two sides of the conflict in Yemen.

After 5 years of the agreement, the city of Hodeidah and the western coast turned into a source of danger to maritime navigation and ships linked to Israel following the Houthi attacks that came in response to the Israeli aggression on Gaza, as announced by the Houthi group. This new factor prompted 4 of the 5 largest container companies in the world, representing 53% of global container trade, to suspend its operations in the Red Sea.

In response, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin announced yesterday, Tuesday, the formation of a multinational force to protect trade in the Red Sea.

• How did the Houthis become a threatening force in the Red Sea?

Since the first operation on November 19 against ships linked to Israel, Houthi attacks have become a daily occurrence, and within two months the US Navy shot down 38 missiles and aircraft. march For the Houthis In the Red Sea.

A senior military commander in the Yemeni government, who requested to remain anonymous, told Al Jazeera Net, “The Houthis took advantage of the Stockholm Agreement, which stipulated the cessation of air strikes by the Saudi-led coalition on the city of Hodeidah, to build huge workshops to remanufacture and install drones and long-range missiles.”

The Stockholm Agreement is an agreement sponsored by the United Nations, and reached by the Houthis and the legitimate government in the Swedish capital, on December 13, 2018. The agreement stipulates the redeployment of forces in the coastal province of Hodeidah, the exchange of lists of prisoners and detainees (more than 15 thousand), and the lifting of the siege on the city. Taiz (Southwest).

The military source explained that weapons and spare parts were arriving to the Houthis from Iran to the western coast in small boats following smuggling routes, and they appeared in Houthi military parades.

Military expert Muhammad al-Kumaim told Al Jazeera Net, “Government forces warned the international community that the Stockholm Agreement allows the flow of Iranian weapons to the Houthis.”

Al-Kumaim added, “Today the Houthis reflect Iranian influence in the region clearly and frankly, especially after the Iranian Defense Minister’s statement that the Red Sea is in their control.”

• What can these forces do? Will it re-explode the situation in Yemen?

Until this moment, the naval force of the new international coalition has not announced taking any action against the Houthis, while indications appear that its mission is to secure the routes of ships crossing the Strait. Bab al-Mandab And the southern Red Sea, and this will not go beyond launching an offensive operation for fear of expanding the ongoing Israeli war on Gaza strip.

Ali Al-Dhahab, a researcher specializing in military and strategic affairs, told Al Jazeera Net, “This force has previous experience in confronting piracy (on the coast of Somalia), meaning that it will accompany commercial ships and will respond to sources of threat.”

Al-Dhahab added, “If the threat is from sea boats, it will sink them or chase them, and if it is from land, it will respond to the sources of fire. Here the operation will expand further, and perhaps the conflict may increase in intensity and expansion.”

Houthi spokesman Mohammed Abdel Salam told Al Jazeera that “whoever seeks to expand the conflict must bear the consequences of his actions,” while a statement by the Supreme Political Council – the highest authority for the Houthis – said that “naval force threatens navigation in the Red Sea.”

Yemen’s naval operations aim to support the Palestinian people in confronting the aggression and siege on Gaza, and are not a show of force or a challenge to anyone. Whoever seeks to expand the conflict must bear the consequences of his actions. The American-formed coalition is to protect Israel and militarize the sea without any justification, and will not stop Yemen from continuing its legitimate operations…

– Muhammad Abdel Salam (@abdusalamsalah) December 19, 2023

A member of the Supreme Political Council, Hizam al-Assad, told Al Jazeera Net, “The United States tried before to repel missiles and drones and protect Israeli ships,” indicating that the new force will not take any different step.

As for Israel, whose Prime Minister was informed Benjamin Netanyahu The American President joe biden His country will move militarily against the Houthis if the United States does not do so, as it was not among the countries that formed the naval force.

Belt of Assad downplayed the seriousness of the formation of this international force, and said that it was “a step that was not imposed by reality or necessity, and does not have foundations or references, and its entire purpose is to protect Israeli ships, and the understanding of the countries overlooking the Red Sea prevented actual or declared participation in it.”

The Houthi leader explained that the shipping companies changing their route occurred as a result of American pressure exerted on them in order to inflame world opinion and make the scene appear to be a target for movement and shipping lines in general, as well as to blackmail Egypt and the rest of the countries overlooking the Red Sea.

Will the Houthis stop targeting ships?

The Houthi drones appeared to be a concern that might disturb the “Prosperity Guardian” operation led by the new international force, and the American “Politico” magazine website quoted officials in the US Department of Defense (Bintaghun) The cost of shooting down Houthi drones and missiles is a growing source of concern, as a missile worth $2 million is used to intercept a Houthi drone worth $2,000.

The Assad Belt confirms that the Houthi naval forces will continue to track and pursue Israeli ships, or those heading to Israeli ports, and detain them “until the American-backed Israeli aggression stops killing our people in Gaza, lifts the siege and allows the entry of food, medical and supply supplies.”

He added, “No one will prevent us from supporting and supporting our oppressed brothers in Gaza, even if all the powers of the world come together against us.”

What are the Houthis’ gains?

On the iron fence of Al-Saleh Mosque in the center of the capital, Sana’a, pictures of Houthi and Iranian leaders and the Islamic Resistance Movement rose (agitationOne of the passers-by stood and looked at these pictures with admiration, while it seemed that the group might be sending a message to its supporters that it is facing America and Israel.

The Houthi group’s attacks against Israeli interests received popular support inside Yemen, and even from some of the group’s opponents. The prominent Houthi leader Youssef Al-Madani says, “Now we have reached the main enemy, the real enemy of the nation, the Zionist enemy… for the sake of the central issue, the issue of Palestine, the issue of all… Nation”.

The researcher specializing in military and strategic affairs, Ali Al-Dhahab, says, “The Houthis have proven that they are capable of doing something, and they will be credited with being among the factors that stopped the fire, or accelerated the truce in Gaza. If that does not happen, the Houthis will attribute the cessation of their operations – in all pragmatism – to a cessation of Passage of Israeli ships in the Red Sea.

It seems that the US administration is still betting on its position that it is possible for the Houthis to play a role in Yemen after reaching a peace agreement. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin previously stated that Washington was “quietly supporting the Houthis’ fight against… Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula At that time,” according to what the American magazine “Foreign Policy” reported, quoting a senior officer who worked with Secretary Austin in the US Army’s Central Command.

What is the position of the Yemeni government?

The spokesman for the legitimate government forces in Yemen apologized for commenting on the formation of the international naval force, while the Yemeni Ministry of Defense website denied, citing an official source in the ministry, reports that the government was participating in an international coalition to protect shipping lines in the Red Sea.

The legitimate government in Yemen controls the southern coast of the country, the Bab al-Mandab Strait, and an area of ​​the western coast of the country. A week ago, the naval forces led by Tariq Saleh, a member of the Yemeni Presidential Command Council, conducted a naval parade to show their readiness to protect the coasts.

After that, he traveled Tariq Saleh (nephew of the late President Ali Abdullah Saleh) to Bahrain, where he is based US Fifth FleetHe met with the Commander-in-Chief of the Bahrain Defense Force, Field Marshal Khalifa bin Ahmed Al Khalifa, before the United States announced the formation of the international naval force in the Red Sea.

As stated by Aidaroos Al-Zubaidi, member of the Presidential Leadership Council and Chairman Southern Transitional Council Supported by the UAE, he was enthusiastic about participating in the international maritime coalition, as he said during his visit to Mayon Island, located on the Bab al-Mandab Strait, last Monday, that his forces were “ready to participate in any international effort or coalition to secure international shipping lines.”

John Kirby said that there are countries that do not want to announce their participation in the multinational coalition to repel Houthi attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea, and want their participation to remain secret.
He pointed out that the number of countries reached 44. pic.twitter.com/cA9Y93cVbX

– Wajd Waqfi Wajd Waqfi (@WajdWaqfi) December 19, 2023

But it is clear that there is no consensus within the Presidential Command Council led by him Rashad Al-Alimi And the Yemeni government to participate in the maritime coalition led by Washington. Military expert Muhammad al-Kumaim says, “The government will not participate in the coalition, which is a positive step. America, Britain, and the international community are the ones who stopped the battle to liberate Hodeidah, and now they are reaping what they sowed.”