The agreement between Ethiopia and Somaliland…a recipe for igniting tension in the Horn of Africa | News

The Ethiopian Prime Minister’s speech blew up Abiy Ahmed On October 14, he received a huge surprise when he confirmed that obtaining a sea port was a matter of life or death for his landlocked country, hinting that it would obtain this right by force or otherwise.

Despite his subsequent confirmation of following Ethiopia Peaceful ways to address this issue. These demands have raised tensions with his country’s coastal neighbors in the Horn of Africa.

In a new surprise, she received everyone Addis Ababa and region Somaliland The new separatist general signed a memorandum of understanding that both parties described as historic and would allow Ethiopia to access the sea, which sparked a wave of speculation about the geopolitical repercussions of this step, and its effects on relations between the countries of the turbulent Horn of Africa.

Ethiopia and the sea… a dream that never dies

Access to the sea has always held a central place in the Ethiopian conscience, especially after Eritrea’s independence in 1993, which transformed the former colonizer into one of the largest landlocked countries in Africa.

This renewed Ethiopian ambition was the latest manifestation of the speech delivered by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed before his country’s parliament on October 14.

In the context of proving his country’s right to obtain a sea port, Ahmed presented many historical, economic, demographic and geopolitical justifications.

He stressed that his countrymen, who will number 150 million in less than a decade, “cannot live in a geographical prison,” and that “the Nile and the Red Sea are the basis for developing Ethiopia or its annihilation.”

Ethiopia’s dependence on the neighboring port of Djibouti for imports and exports via the Red Sea has represented a constant concern for Addis Ababa, which prompted it to work on a strategy to diversify the ports, by concluding agreements with its neighbors such as Somalia, Kenya, and others, but the latest development was the desire to obtain its own sovereign sea port.

Following the release of these statements, responses followed from Ethiopia’s coastal neighbors Djibouti, Somalia, and Eritrea, and there were reports of military build-ups on the Eritrean-Ethiopian border, which led to escalating fears of the outbreak of an armed conflict on both sides, with the “sea” being the fuse to detonate it.

An important turning point

In light of the turbulent political atmosphere in the Horn of Africa, the Ethiopian Prime Minister and the President of the separatist Somaliland region, Musa Bihi Abdo, signed a memorandum of understanding that constituted a new turning point in the course of the current crisis.

A statement issued by the Ethiopian Prime Minister confirmed that this memorandum “will pave the way for achieving Ethiopia’s aspirations in securing access to the sea and diversifying its access to sea ports.”

In a parallel context, the Somaliland Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced in a statement that the agreement “guarantees for Ethiopia the access of its naval forces to the sea, in exchange for official recognition of the Republic of Somaliland,” as the Somaliland region will lease to Ethiopia a 20-kilometre coastal strip for a period of 50 years.

Motives and gains

The editor-in-chief of the Ethiopian Nilotik website, Noureddine Abda, believes that the memorandum of understanding between the two parties comes in light of extremely complex regional and international situations, “in which everyone is seeking to reposition itself before the current fluctuations in international relations end.”

Abda added to Al Jazeera Net that both Ethiopia and Somaliland have their own motives behind this agreement.

In explaining Addis Ababa’s motives, Abda stated that his country has “an overwhelming desire for free access to the sea to secure its international trade and achieve its national security,” and that Ethiopia cannot “remain idle in the face of the great security threats witnessed by the Red Sea.”

This is what the political analyst specializing in the Horn of Africa, Shafa Omar, agrees with, explaining that the nature of the Ethiopian motives goes beyond economic reasons to geopolitical and security dimensions, according to what the Ethiopian Prime Minister showed in his speeches in this regard.

In his interview with Al Jazeera Net, Omar links the Somaliland government’s decision to sign this agreement to its desire to obtain international recognition, indicating that in this way it “obtained implicit Ethiopian recognition.”

But this is not the only gain for the separatist region, as Omar sees it. There are economic motives that cannot be overlooked, explaining that they include “obtaining a stake in Ethiopian Airlines, which is the largest airline in Africa, and this constitutes an important economic opportunity for Somaliland.”

The path to international recognition

Since the collapse of the state in Somalia in 1991, the Somaliland region has declared itself an independent state under the name “Republic of Somaliland,” an independence that has not been recognized by the central authority in Mogadishu, which considers the region a vassal state.

During three decades, the separatist region worked to gain international recognition of its independence, but it did not succeed in this endeavour, while observers believe that Ethiopian recognition may be a prelude to similar steps from other African countries.

In his speech last October, the Ethiopian Prime Minister offered the neighboring coastal countries the option of obtaining up to 30% in vital Ethiopian institutions, such as the Renaissance Dam, Ethiopian Airlines, or the Ethiopian Telecommunications Company, in exchange for securing a sovereign access to the sea for his country, but he did not He finds acceptance from her.

Emirati presence

Somaliland’s strategic location on the Gulf of Aden, close to Bab al-Mandab, was coveted by many powers, in the context of the struggle for the Horn of Africa and its ports that witnessed the past decade.

In this context, the name of the United Arab Emirates stands out, which, through its giant company, DP World, signed an agreement with Somaliland in 2016 worth $442 million, to operate a regional commercial and logistics center in the port of the commercial city of Berbera.

Two years after that date, the two parties also signed an agreement to develop a free economic zone project integrated with the Berbera Port development project, with Dubai Ports retaining a 51% share in the project, the first phase of which was completed in 2021, enabling the port to operate with an operational capacity of up to 500. One thousand containers annually.

This is why some observers link the memorandum of understanding between Somaliland and Ethiopia to Emirati approval, given the strong relations between the three parties. Additionally, Dubai World’s profits will increase significantly if the port of Berbera becomes a major corridor for trade with Ethiopia, which constitutes the largest economy in the Horn of Africa.

It is worth noting that the 2018 agreement between Dubai Ports, Somaliland and Ethiopia ensured that the latter obtained a 19% share of the port of Berbera, which was not completed as a result of Addis Ababa’s failure to meet the conditions required to be completed by 2022.

External influence

For his part, Omar Ahmed, a political analyst specializing in the affairs of the Horn of Africa, believes that there is an international dimension that cannot be overlooked behind the scenes of the memorandum of understanding.

He added that it comes with an American green light, as Washington, as Ahmed says, “represents the most important players in the region and possesses the largest military base in Djibouti, and Ethiopia will not have a naval base in neighboring Somaliland without American approval.”

Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, Ahmed stated that this memorandum cannot be separated from “the developments in Bab al-Mandab and the restructuring of the Horn of Africa region in a way that is consistent with American interests in the future, and limiting any Russian-Chinese influence in the region.”

Djibouti hosts Camp Lemonnier, which is the only permanent base of the United States in the Horn of Africa, and it performs sensitive security and military roles related to combating “terrorism” in East Africa and Yemen.

Radwan Hussein, the security advisor to the Ethiopian Prime Minister, said in a tweet on the X website that the current understanding will pave the way for Ethiopia to obtain a military base on the Red Sea.

New crisis

The Ethiopian understanding with Somaliland threatens to ignite a crisis between… Mogadishu And Addis Ababa, where the Somali Parliament, both the People’s Assembly and the Senate, voted unanimously to cancel the memorandum, considering it contrary to international conventions and norms.

The Somali government also considered it a “blatant violation of Somalia’s sovereignty,” stressing that it will take all measures that enable it to defend its sovereignty, people and land.

Yesterday, Tuesday, Mogadishu also quickly summoned its ambassador to Addis Ababa for consultations, the day after the agreement was announced.

Omar Ahmed believes that the Somali reaction is expected, adding that there are others in the region who will share Mogadishu’s fears.

The state of Djibouti is likely to be one of those who have reservations about the agreement, as it was leading a mediation between Somalia and Somaliland that resulted in the two parties signing an agreement on December 31 of last year that set a road map for resuming negotiations between them, and one day later the memorandum of understanding came to torpedo all these efforts.

Omar adds that Addis Ababa’s use of the port of Berbera will deprive Djibouti of the advantage of being the main crossing point for Ethiopia’s imports and exports, which threatens it with losing a significant amount of its income from fees and taxes.

Eritrean apprehension

In the same context, Eritrea also seems wary of Addis Ababa obtaining any naval bases, as “the Eritrean regime has always sought to keep Ethiopia trapped.”

Shafa Omar believes that this agreement will exacerbate the already existing tensions in the region, explaining that this highlights the need for “continuous understanding and negotiation to contain the repercussions.”

For Nur al-Din Abda, the step taken by Ethiopia and Somaliland “is calculated by the consequences on both sides,” explaining that the best option for Ethiopia is to “bear the risks of tensions, whether between the countries of the Horn or the region, instead of waiting and watching without taking measures to secure its national security.” .

On the other hand – Abda continues – the Somaliland crisis with Mogadishu is already ongoing, and therefore it can risk escalation with it in exchange for obtaining recognition and revitalizing the economy and trade.