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Tensions are escalating between Mogadishu and Addis Ababa against the backdrop of the latter signing a memorandum of understanding with The breakaway region of Somaliland It guarantees Ethiopia a sea port and a military base on the Red Sea.
The memorandum was met with strong anger from Mogadishu, which considers the breakaway region of Somaliland a state of its own, as the President announced Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud In his speech before his country’s parliament, he said that he “will not accept that a piece of the country’s land be taken,” considering the memorandum a blatant violation of international laws and cannot be implemented in any way.
The Somali President signed a law abolishing Convention Pointing out that this law is the official position of Somalia, and “a strong message to everyone who wants land, sea and air invasion of the Somali people.”
The Somali government also summoned its ambassador to Addis Ababa, stressing that it will take all legal measures that enable it to defend its sovereignty, people and land.
While the capital of Somaliland, Hargeisa, witnessed marches welcoming the joint step as progress towards gaining recognition of independence, thousands of Somalis came out in the capital, Mogadishu, in protest against the memorandum, raising banners reading, “Our sea is not for sale.”
Mogadishu options
The strict Somali position raised many questions about Mogadishu’s ability to block the implementation of the memorandum, as observers believe that Mogadishu has broad options that enable it to put pressure on the Somaliland government.
Somali researcher and political analyst Mohamed Abtadon says that his country’s government can mobilize the street and Somali public opinion, at home and abroad, against the agreement.
It also has the ability – added Abtedun in his interview with Al Jazeera Net – to conclude a joint defense treaty with one of the major countries regionally or internationally, which will negatively affect the Ethiopian ambition to obtain an outlet through the Somali coast.
He stresses the presence of the escalation card in the hands of the Somali decision-maker, who may move towards declaring a rift and stopping economic cooperation between the two countries, accompanied by intensifying diplomatic pressure on Ethiopia by heading to regional and international forums.
International reactions
Following the signing of the memorandum, many positions were issued by regional and international parties, urging statements from the African Union, the European Union, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, the United States and a number of countries to respect the unity, sovereignty and integrity of Somalia.
The Arab League also expressed its “full solidarity” with the Somali government in “rejecting and condemning” the memorandum of understanding.
As the Intergovernmental Authority for the Development of East Africa (IGAD) expressed deep concern about the recent developments and their repercussions on regional stability, calling on the two member countries of the group to cooperate to reach a peaceful and amicable solution.
Exhausted Somalia
For his part, Abdul Raziq Karrar, a political analyst specializing in the affairs of the Horn of Africa, believes that Somalia is suffering from a state of internal weakness and exhaustion as a result of the decades-long civil war and the hectic activity of the Al-Shabaab movement, which therefore limits Mogadishu’s options.
But at the same time, the citizens of Somaliland are not united in rallying around the independence project, as Sool, the second region of Somaliland, has witnessed violent incidents over the past months, which is a card that Mogadishu can use, according to Karrar.
The Sool region and its capital, Lasaanoud, have been experiencing a state of security turmoil since late 2022, against the backdrop of disputes between the Somaliland government and the region’s major clans, as the latter refuses to secede from Somalia and seeks to establish its own entity affiliated with Mogadishu, which was met with a categorical refusal from Hargeisa.
The principle of state sovereignty
At the continental level, Karar believes in his interview with Al Jazeera Net that the government of President Hassan Sheikh Sharif is able to benefit from the African Union’s adherence to the principle of nation-state sovereignty and respect for the borders inherited at independence, to embarrass Ethiopia, the host of the union, and attract support from inside and outside the African continent.
The close security and military cooperation between Washington and Mogadishu has yielded tangible results in curbing the conflict Al-Shabaab movement Last year, which provided the basis for Somalia to obtain Western support, given that combating terrorism is one of the most important determinants of American policy towards the region, adding that the recent Ethiopian step “represents the kiss of life for Al-Shabaab.”
The aforementioned movement had announced that Addis Ababa “will not be able to seize a single inch of Somali waters,” calling on Somalis to “liberate the country” and engage in a “religious war” against Ethiopia, which threatens to push the crisis in a more dangerous direction.
Legally, Abdul Razzaq Karrar believes that Ethiopia is willing to sign an agreement similar to the one concluded by Hargeisa with Dubai Ports World, but Somaliland will not accept this time to sign the agreement except in exchange for recognition of its independence and full sovereignty, which carries with it a risk for Ethiopia, because it first requires it to work To mobilize more similar recognitions to give the agreement, once signed, international legal value.
Here lies the risk. If the agreement falters, Addis Ababa will not be able to withdraw from recognition, and therefore it will have no choice but to resort to force, which is difficult in the current circumstances it is experiencing.
Ethiopian papers
On the other hand, Ethiopia and Somaliland appear to be continuing to develop the memorandum of understanding, which some Ethiopian elites interpret by pointing out that the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea guarantees landlocked countries the right to conclude agreements with coastal states to access the sea and benefit from port services, and that the Horn of Africa region is full of international military bases. Why is this prohibited in Addis Ababa?
Abtedon believes that Ethiopia is basing its position on the fact that this will not be the first agreement concluded by the separatist region of Somaliland with an external party, as there are precedents in this field with international companies and bodies.
The Somaliland government signed two agreements with DP World (2016 and 2018) to operate a regional commercial and logistics center that includes developing a free economic zone project in the port of the commercial city of Berbera.
Accordingly, the Emirati company retains a 51% stake in the project, the first phase of which was completed in 2021, enabling the port to operate with an operational capacity of up to 500,000 containers annually.
Abtadon believes that Somaliland Prime Minister Musa Bihi’s pursuit of recognition of independence will prompt him to grant Ethiopia 20 kilometers of beach in exchange for achieving this goal, regardless of the economic returns.
This is what Abdul Razzaq Karrar agrees with, explaining that the recognition of a country with continental and international weight like Ethiopia constitutes an important boost to Hargeisa’s efforts in this field, and that what may tempt the two sides to develop their understandings is the relative stability and democratic system in Somaliland, which “made many academic centers and personalities sympathize with Haqq.” Hargeisa’s self-determination.
The Prime Minister adopted it Abiy Ahmed From an early stage he proposed that the solution to Ethiopia’s problems depended on its obtaining a sea port, and that this enabled him to win a significant proportion of the Ethiopian elites and masses behind this idea.
Adding that Ethiopia’s access to the sea is not a modern idea, but rather a revival of an idea that has remained firmly established in the Ethiopian collective mind.
Old crises in new forms
The Ethiopian memorandum of understanding with Somaliland has sparked a state of extreme tension in the Horn of Africa, while many international and regional parties have struggled to contain the escalating conflict between Mogadishu and Addis Ababa and prevent the region from sliding into greater chaos.
This emerging crisis adds more powder to the explosive barrel of the Horn of Africa, whose countries suffer from security fragility, civil wars, and the activity of armed movements, while the outbreak of a conflict in the Horn of Africa will be a nightmare for all international powers concerned with the security of the Red Sea.
Observers believe that this crisis is capable of escalation, especially if it is linked to the Ethiopian Prime Minister’s attempt to export his internal crises to neighboring countries. If the tension between Mogadishu and Addis Ababa is not contained, it will reach an unprecedented degree, accompanied by regional alignments that will raise the cost of recognizing the independence of the breakaway region of Somaliland.
But with all of the above, there are calls for the need for the countries of the region to deal realistically and objectively in order to address the dilemma of Ethiopia’s need for a sea port, while the latter must adhere to realism in its demands, and Mogadishu must formulate an appropriate equation to resolve the Somaliland crisis instead of Conflict.
