Related Post
Policies often begin with a statement by an official, and positions are usually crystallized and policy is drawn up in extensive discussions behind the closed doors of those officials. The gap in proposed and implemented policies between officials and a sector of the people has become a characteristic of all political practice in the contemporary world. This characteristic does not only apply to dictatorial regimes; Industrial democracies also suffer from it. The crisis of representation and agency over people has become a structural crisis in contemporary times for many reasons, including:
- Weak political institutions.
- The control of stakeholders, including businessmen and others, over policy-making and decision-making. The erosion of political elites.
- In addition to fueling populist tendencies and the rise of nationalism.
- Not to mention the societal division and polarization that is constantly and constantly fueled by misinformation, cult groups, populist politicians…etc.
As for our Arab world; The gap between the rulers and their people increases. There is a belief in the independence of the former to decide matters and manage public affairs away from the pressures of the latter. Our rulers are most knowledgeable about the affairs of this world and the hereafter alike. The rulers and their media try to impose the agenda that we must discuss, and to shape our future perception according to the positions they impose, but with the developments in communication tools, the masses screaming in their faces has become necessary to achieve the desired balance. Opinion polls – despite their shortcomings – represent one of the important channels for listening to ordinary people, and through them the clear discrepancy between what politicians say and what people want appears.
Three facts
What can be deduced from multiple surveys conducted before and after the “Flood” are three facts that we will present in this article. She is not alone, but there is something related to the arrangements for the next day in Gaza, and the failure of forced displacement with the possibility of voluntary migration for a significant percentage of Gazans, amounting to a quarter – according to opinion polls – which deserves to be devoted to a separate article due to its importance.
The three facts are:
- The Palestinian issue is the central Arab issue; It is the symbol of loyalty and disavowal in Arab politics.
- Broad popular support for the “Al-Aqsa Flood” operation, and awareness of the reasons behind it.
- A categorical rejection of normalization, and belief in the armed struggle to liberate the occupied Palestinian territories.
Palestine is the symbol of loyalty and political disavowal
The Arab street was unanimously agreed – according to the Arab Index data – to consider the Palestinian issue “the issue of all Arabs and not the issue of Palestinians alone” by 92%. It is worth noting that this percentage is unprecedented when compared to the results of previous years, as it rose from 76% at the end of 2022, to 92% in this survey. It has increased significantly in some countries. In Morocco, it rose from 59% in 2022 to 95%, in Egypt from 75% to 94%, and in Saudi Arabia from 69% to 95%, in a way that reflects a significant increase from a statistical standpoint, and a fundamental shift in the opinions of the citizens of these countries.
The Palestinian issue remains of vital importance to Arab public opinion, and has not lost its importance to new generations, and despite what many Western capitals and many Arab governments may assume; Israel will not be able to make peace with its neighbors as long as the Palestinians do not have a state.
The results of the Arab Index, which were published a few days ago, showed that Arab citizens deal with this war as if it directly affects them. 97% of respondents expressed that they feel psychological pressure (to varying degrees) as a result of the war on Gaza. Indeed, 84% said; They feel great psychological pressure. About 80% of respondents reported that they regularly follow war news, compared to 7% who said; They don’t follow it. Follow-up sources are distributed on television channels at a rate of 54%, and the Internet at a rate of 43%.
There is an Arab consensus on solidarity with the Palestinian people. 92% of respondents agreed to this; 69% of them expressed their solidarity with the Palestinian people in Gaza and the Hamas movement, while 23% reported that they were in solidarity with the Palestinian people – even if they disagreed with Hamas – and only 1% said that they were not in solidarity.
At the level of Arab public opinion’s assessment of the policies of regional and international powers toward the war on Gaza, the results reflected that Arab public opinion opposes the policy of the United States of America toward the war on Gaza. 94% of respondents evaluated its position as “bad” and “very bad,” and he said 82% It’s very bad. In the same context, 79%, 78%, and 75% agree that the positions of France, Britain, and Germany, respectively, are negative. While Arab public opinion was divided regarding the positions of Iran, Turkey, Russia, and China; Among those who saw it as positive (48%, 47%, 41%, 40%, respectively), and among those who viewed it as negative (37%, 40%, 42%, 38%, respectively).
In a poll conducted by the Arab Barometer – which was administered to a sample of Tunisians immediately before the “flood” and continued for a few days after it – every country in the poll that had positive or warm relations with Israel saw a decline in its support rates among Tunisians. The United States saw the largest decline, but Washington’s allies in the Middle East who have built ties with Israel over the past few years also saw their support numbers decline.
Analysts and officials can safely assume that people’s opinions elsewhere in the region have changed in ways similar to recent changes in Tunisia. About 77% of Arab public opinion – according to Arab Index data – agrees that the United States and Israel are the most threatening to the security and stability of the region. 51% saw the United States as the most threatening, and 26% saw Israel as the greatest threat.
Palestine is not just an issue, it is the defining cause of our time as it reveals:
- First: The nature of the rules-based international system. Secondly: the bankruptcy of our political, economic and social situation. It forces us to confront the foundations on which a region will be restructured that is fundamentally based on economics – that is, only material aspects – without regard for human dignity, our unrepresentative governments, and, most of all, ourselves.
When Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip were asked – in a poll by the Palestinian Center – about the best way to end the occupation and establish an independent state, the public was divided into three groups: the majority said 63% (68% in the West Bank and 56% in the Gaza Strip); Armed struggle is best
Popular support for the flood
The “Flood” operation showed that we are facing a total clash between different perceptions and strategies: between history and the absence of memory, between dignity and pragmatism, between rights and material benefit…etc.
Arab public opinion is deeply aware of the reasons behind the flood, and does not see it as a conspiracy by Hamas, nor for the benefit of Iran. It also expresses its great support for it, despite the attempt of some to cast doubt on its motives and the consequences it may entail. At the same time, it sees its limits that come – in My appreciation – from the weakness and fragility of its nurturing Arab context. The “flood” was a major act in a fragile and weak context at both the official and popular levels.
The results of the Arab Index highlighted that Arab public opinion is not convinced that the military operation carried out by Hamas on October 7, 2023 was the fulfillment of a foreign agenda. 35% of respondents considered that the most important reason for the operation was the continued Israeli occupation of the Palestinian territories, while 24% attributed it to defending Al-Aqsa Mosque against its targeting, and 8% saw it as a result of the continued siege of the Gaza Strip.
The Battle of the Flood restored respect to Jerusalem and the occupied territories, and highlighted the violations to which the Palestinians are exposed, and most importantly, they are not alone. There was a perception among Arab governments, Israel, and Western governments that they could normalize without achieving the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people.
As for the debate about the legality of that process; 67% of Arab public opinion agreed that the operation was a “legitimate operation.” The trends of Arab public opinion coincide with its Palestinian counterpart regarding the position on the “flood.” In a poll conducted after the operation by the Palestinian Center for Political and Survey Studies, widespread popular support for the attack launched by Hamas emerged.
The results indicate that the majority of the sample believe that Hamas’s decision to carry out the attack was correct, and they believe that the attack came in response to “settlers’ attacks on Al-Aqsa Mosque and residents of the West Bank, and in order to release Palestinian prisoners.”
There are significant differences between the positions of the residents of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, in terms of the “correctness” of Hamas’ decision (and other matters), as the positions of the residents of Gaza tend to show a greater degree of doubt about this decision. It is clear from the results that believing in the “correctness” of Hamas’ decision does not mean supporting all the actions that marred or were associated with the process. More than 90% of Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip believe that Hamas fighters did not commit the atrocities mentioned in the videos broadcast by the Israelis.
PCHR’s findings indicate that the vast majority believe that attacking or killing civilians in their homes is impermissible. The majority (with the exception of the Gaza Strip) also believe that taking civilians as hostages or prisoners of war is also not permissible.
The overwhelming majority said (81%; 89% in the West Bank and 69% in the Gaza Strip); This comes “in response to settlers’ attacks on Al-Aqsa Mosque and on Palestinian citizens, and aims to release prisoners from Israeli prisons.” While only 14% (5% in the West Bank and 27% in the Gaza Strip) believed that it was an Iranian conspiracy. The vast majority (72%; 82% in the West Bank and 57% in the Gaza Strip) said; It was the right decision. A percentage of 22% (12% in the West Bank and 37% in the Gaza Strip) said: It is not true.
Armed struggle is the way
When Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip were asked – in a poll by the Palestinian Center – about the best way to end the occupation and establish an independent state, the public was divided into three groups: the majority said 63% (68% in the West Bank and 56% in the Gaza Strip); Armed struggle is best; 20% said; It’s negotiations; 13% said; It is popular, non-violent resistance. Three months ago, 53% said; Armed struggle is the ideal solution. 24% said peaceful popular resistance, and 20% said negotiation. West Bank residents’ support for resorting to weapons has risen by 19 percentage points since the formation of the current far-right government in Israel, and has risen by another 14 points over the past three months.
The Tunisians’ attitude towards armed resistance – as shown by the results of the Arab Barometer – is similar to the position of the Palestinians. Compared to polls conducted before the October 7 attack, many more Tunisians today want the Palestinians to resolve their conflict with Israel by force rather than a peaceful settlement.
The “Flood” changed the views of Tunisians—as well as the views of Arabs in other countries—on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in important ways. Before October 7, when asked about their preferred means of resolving the conflict, 66% favored a two-state solution based on the 1967 borders, while 18% favored an alternative diplomatic path, such as a single state with equal rights for all, or a confederation, but by the end of the fieldwork after “ Flood,” only 50% of Tunisians supported the two-state solution, while those who support a one-state solution or confederation fell by a combined seven points. The biggest gain was in the “other” category, which rose 30 points to 36 percent. Once again, the vast majority of these Tunisians wanted armed resistance to continue.
Anger toward Israel grows greater in countries closest to the conflict, or in those that host more Palestinian refugees, such as Jordan and Lebanon. Therefore, the possibility of further armed resistance is to be expected. A new generation has now witnessed the horrors of occupation on television and on social media, including tragic images of bodies and grieving families that they are unlikely to forget. A certain percentage of them may choose to finance, join or assist armed groups fighting against Israel’s existence.
Are we on the verge of a proactive vision of the Palestinian armed struggle: for Arab public opinion and unlike their rulers; Only offensive force and assertion of force can pave the way for fairer negotiations with Israel.
