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Aljazeera.net correspondents
Moscow- The competent authorities have returned to Russia Once again, to sound the alarm about the continuation of the demographic crisis despite the measures taken by the state to address this issue, which is one of the most prominent challenges facing it at the present time.
These warnings came from more than one governmental and civil institution, which confirmed – in the summary of the reports they issued – the ineffectiveness of these measures and the need to reconsider them, including the report of the Center for Analysis and Forecasting of Macroeconomic Operations, headed by Dmitry Belousov (brother of the Minister of Defense). Andrey Belousov).
The center, along with other experts, published a report entitled “Demographic Policy: Mapping the Gap Between Policy and Operations,” in which they concluded that the state is spending enormous resources to raise the birth rate, yet there is no result.
negative number
According to the center, which is considered one of the most competent analytical institutions in studying social and economic processes in the country, 1,264,000 children were born in 2023, a negative record since 1999. By 2027, the number will drop to 1.14 million.
He added that the total fertility rate, the most important indicator in demography, reached only 1.41 points in 2023, and is likely to decline during the current year, although the minimum population reproduction rate should not be less than 2.1 points.
Commenting on these figures, the Chairwoman of the Committee stated: State Duma (Parliament) for the Protection of the Family, Nina Ostanina, that the demographic situation has become complicated by the “special military operation” in Ukraine Because hundreds of thousands of soldiers were heading to the front.
Only in one region of Russia – the North Caucasus – did the birth rate rise by 4.5%, which is typical for these Muslim-majority regions.
According to a series of other analytical reports on regional differences in fertility levels that have emerged in recent weeks, the unfavourable demographic situation is developing in large cities where the proportion of families without children is growing faster.
These reports confirm that the decline in the birth rate and the increase in the number of divorces continue, despite all the efforts made by the authorities. They added that the population decline during the first five months of 2024 amounted to about 282 thousand people, and Moscow lost 45 thousand people, which is more than it lost in the same period last year.
Agents
Moreover, in May of this year alone, the number of births decreased by 0.1%, and the number of deaths increased by 4.8%. During the same period, about 260,000 couples married, and more than 270,000 others divorced, meaning that the number of divorces exceeded the number of marriages by 3.5%.
It is noteworthy that the President Vladimir Putin In 2019, the government was instructed to ensure the achievement of national development goals by 2024, which include ensuring sustainable natural population growth and increasing average life expectancy to 80 years by 2030.
Based on studies in this regard, social affairs researcher Vladimir Koshul believes that:
- Financial capabilities are a major factor in the decision to have children.
- Availability and quality of medical care and desire to have children.
- Government support for families is the least influential of these reasons because – in his opinion – it does not sufficiently meet the conditions that ensure an increase in childbearing.
Speaking to Al Jazeera, he suggests that demographic support measures be rearranged based on region of residence, dividing them into agricultural, industrial and post-industrial (focusing on technology, services and finance).
This is due to the trend in major cities towards forming single families, as in Moscow AndSaint PetersburgAlmost half of the families there have only one child.
Solution
For her part, social researcher Laura Zaitseva says that the continued decline in the population for the ninth year in a row is a cause for great concern. She believes that the failure of the plan to raise birth rates is due to the government’s focus on material aspects as basic conditions for a solution, and neglecting the spiritual and value-based aspects of addressing the crisis.
According to Zaitseva, the demographic problems facing Moscow have no easy solutions. To increase the birth rate, she believes that a set of measures is needed to improve the quality and standard of living, facilitate the conditions for combining work and raising children, and change the attitude of the state, business and society in general towards large families.
The researcher says that the country is now suffering – severely – from the phenomenon of aging and declining population, which requires greater focus on reforming the retirement and health care systems, maintaining the required percentage of the working-age population, achieving the required levels of alternative immigration, and integrating immigrants into society.
She also points out that studies indicate that Russia's population will steadily decline. By 2050, it will be between 135 and 145 million people. Therefore, in her opinion, the solution should not be limited to taking measures to increase the birth rate, but rather taking steps to reduce the high mortality rate.
