After about three years of cautious calm and searching for a common political word, it seemed in the last two days that the Libyan parties might resort to the logic of weapons again.
The United Nations mission in Libya called on Friday for “an end to the military escalation” and “avoiding further tensions”, after movements by forces loyal to the retired general. Khalifa Haftar In the southwest of the country, which is under the control of the internationally recognized government based in Tripoli.
The UN mission called, in a press statement, “on all parties to exercise maximum restraint and avoid any provocative military action that could jeopardize Libya’s fragile stability and the security of its people.”
The General Staff of the Government of National Unity forces, stationed in Tripoli (west), announced on Thursday that it had put its units “on alert” and ordered them “to prepare to repel any possible attack.”
According to local media and analysts, Haftar’s forces aim to take control of Ghadames The vital border crossing with an international airport and a land port linking it to Algeria, located 650 kilometers southwest of Tripoli. The city is currently under the control of the Tripoli government.
Haftar’s ground forces, led by his younger son, Haftar clashrecently announced the implementation of a “large-scale operation” aimed at “securing the country’s southern borders.”
Earlier, Haftar’s forces were quick to clarify the nature of the military movements, confirming that they were only securing the areas under their control in the southwest. They did not indicate their intention to advance to the city of Ghadames in the first place.
Vow to return to conflict
Libya Al-Ahrar TV reported on Thursday, quoting a source from the General Staff, that “Salah Al-Namroush, the assistant chief of staff, gave instructions to army units to raise the level of readiness to repel any possible attack” in the southwest.
On Thursday, the Supreme Council of State – based in Tripoli – said it was following “with great concern the recent military movements in the southwestern region by Haftar’s forces over the past two days, in a blatant and clear attempt to increase influence and control over important strategic areas with neighboring countries.”
The council added in a statement, “These moves may result in a return to armed conflict that threatens the ceasefire agreement” concluded in 2020, undermines “efforts to unify the military institution, and leads to the collapse of the political process.”
“Western Libya is now mired in major turmoil as Haftar’s forces mobilise, seen by some as a prelude to a potential assault on Tripoli,” says Libyan affairs expert Imad Badi.
According to other analysts and local media, the main goal of this mobilization is to control the airport of the city of Ghadames, located 650 kilometers southwest of Tripoli, and currently under the control of the Dabaiba government.
Badi estimates that the control of Ghadames by pro-Haftar forces, a strategic area at the intersection of Libya’s borders with Algeria and Tunisia, “would represent a collapse of the 2020 ceasefire.”
Old ambitions
Controlling Ghadames would have “many benefits” for Haftar’s camp, including “preventing any movement (by Dbeibah’s supporters) south, isolating Dbeibah, and depriving Imad Trabelsi (his interior minister) of the advantage” of controlling this border area, said Jalel Harchaoui, a researcher at the Royal United Services Institute.
Harchaoui believes that Haftar’s forces “have been coveting Ghadames Airport and the surrounding areas for several years,” because controlling it “would greatly enhance Haftar’s regional position in the face of Algeria, Tunisia, and Niger” after extending his control over the entire south from east to west.
Libya has been suffering from divisions since the fall of Muammar Gaddafi’s regime in 2011. Its affairs are run by two governments: the first is internationally recognized in Tripoli (west) headed by Abdul Hamid Dbeibah, and the second is in the east of the country and has the support of Parliament and Khalifa Haftar, whose stronghold is the city of Benghazi.
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It is noteworthy that Haftar launched a large-scale attack from April 2019 to June 2020 to control Tripoli, but he was stopped on the outskirts of the city by the forces of the Government of National Unity, before his forces completely withdrew to Jufra and Sirte in the center of the country.
