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Beirut– I entered the southern front LebanonToday, Sunday, a new and dangerous phase of military escalation, after it was announced Hezbollah On the start of the first phase of his response to the assassination of his military commander Fouad Shukrby hand Israel In the suburb Beirut South on July 30th.
At the same time, Israeli warplanes launched more than 50 raids on various southern Lebanese villages and towns since dawn, in what was described as a “preemptive strike.”
The current escalation phase coincided with the continuation of diplomatic efforts led by US And some Western countries to reduce tension in the region, especially between Israel and Hezbollah, which vowed to respond to Shukr's assassination. Negotiations were also resumed in Cairo between Hamas Movement And Israel with the aim of reaching a prisoner exchange deal and a ceasefire in Gaza.
Despite the military escalation between the two parties, the operations have continued so far to target only military and security sites, without recording any civilian casualties, despite the intensity of the exchange of fire. The operation witnessed the launch of about 320 rockets by Hezbollah, targeting Israeli military bases, including a qualitative military target in the depths, which will be revealed later.
Hezbollah announced that the first phase of its military operation “against the Israeli entity” – which came within the framework of “responding to the martyrdom of Commander Fouad Shukr” – had ended “with complete success.” This phase focused on targeting Israeli barracks and sites.
The party explained that the missiles Katyusha The missiles were launched at “enemy” sites, including: Miron's baseNaveh Ziv base, Za’tun base, Za’oura bases, Al-Sahl base, Kela barracks, and UF barracks in Syrian Golan The occupier, in addition to the Nafah base, the Yarden base, the Ein Zi Tim base, and the Ramot Naftali barracks.
He added that the details of the next phase of the military operation will be announced in later statements. He stressed – in a statement issued this morning – that “the resistance in Lebanon is at its highest readiness and will stand strong and vigilant against any Israeli transgression or aggression.” He added that if civilians are harmed, the punishment of the “Zionist enemy” will be very severe and harsh.
In a later statement, the party announced the end of the response for today, denying that there was any preemptive Israeli response. The party's Secretary-General is scheduled to deliver a speech, Hassan Nasrallaha letter today detailing the response and recent developments.
Israeli preemptive strike
In return, the Israeli occupation army launched a series of violent raids targeting the towns of Horsh Kounin, Rshaf, Tayri, Beit Yahoun, Khardali, Zawtar, and Iqlim al-Tuffah and al-Rayhan in southern Lebanon. It said it launched “preemptive strikes” in Lebanon after observing Hezbollah's preparations for “large-scale attacks” against Israel, which declared a state of emergency and decided to change the “defense policy of the Home Front Command.”
The Israeli army added that it was decided to impose partial restrictions on the northern and southern Golan Heights, the Galilee, the Jordan Valley, the Carmel, and the greater Tel Aviv area.
While he is preparing,The cabinetTo hold a meeting to assess the situation, the opposition leader announced Yair Lapid His support for the Israeli military operations in the north. Lapid stressed that “any attempt to attack Israel will be met with a heavy hand and the capabilities of the army and security services.”
Military observers and analysts rule out that the situation will escalate into a large-scale war. However, they cannot deny the possibility of Iran responding to the assassination of the head of the political bureau of Hamas. Ismail Haniyehwhich took place in Tehran on July 31. It has threatened Iran To respond harshly and appropriately, without causing a regional war.
Unprecedented attack
Ali Matar, professor of international relations and political analyst, told Al Jazeera Net that the resistance has begun to implement its response publicly as it promised, and that this response differs from the previous one in terms of quality and comprehensiveness, as it included an unprecedented attack on a qualitative military target.
Matar explains that the continuation of the response depends on the resistance’s movements, while the comprehensive escalation remains linked to the extent of Israel’s commitment not to expand the targeting to include civilians or sensitive areas. If the Israeli side’s responses remain military and limited, the possibility of a comprehensive war will remain low, unless the Israelis decide to escalate the situation.
Matar points out that the region is currently witnessing mutual attacks between the two parties, as Israeli raids have taken place on various areas in the south. However, current developments do not indicate the outbreak of a major war, as all parties are currently seeking to calm down to avoid a large-scale “volcano”, especially in light of the United States' realization that escalation will endanger its interests and bases.
Regarding the nature of the attacks, Matar confirms that the resistance, according to its second statement, targeted entirely military targets using drones and missiles that hit barracks, bases and artillery, reaching a main military target that will be revealed later.
Composite initial response
Ali Haidar, an expert in Israeli affairs, told Al Jazeera Net that the key to understanding the recent events lies in the phrase used by Hezbollah in its statement, which spoke of an “initial response.” This means that we are not facing a full response or the final response that the party is planning to implement, and this may indicate that the response may be multi-dimensional or complex.
Haidar believes that the second key is the large air attack launched by Hezbollah using drones. The third key is Hezbollah targeting specific military targets in the depths, noting that there is additional time, which means that this strike is preliminary in this context.
He points out that these indicators show that the situation is still under control and does not threaten to escalate into a major confrontation. Accordingly, the Israeli response and attacks do not seem to indicate a continued escalation towards a comprehensive confrontation in Lebanon.
The expert on Israeli affairs believes that the Israeli claims about launching 6,000 rockets are an attempt to cover up the failure of the “preemptive strike.” According to Haidar, Israel is seeking to raise the announced number to justify its failure, especially since Hezbollah has already responded. This response indicates that the preemptive strike did not achieve its goals.
