With 53-man rosters set and the NFL regular season less than a week away, attention turns to the players who will define their teams’ success. While quarterbacks, coaches, and established stars form the foundation of any contender, wins are often secured by pivotal, less predictable contributors. These are the X factors—players whose performance can disproportionately elevate an entire unit or, if they falter, expose a critical weakness.
This analysis identifies the most significant X factor for all 32 teams, focusing on on-field contributors whose play holds the most leverage heading into the 2025 season. To maintain this focus, quarterbacks, rookies, and coaches are excluded, as their impact, while immense, is a different category of influence.
NFC WEST
Arizona Cardinals: DE Josh Sweat
The Cardinals’ defense is well-coached and filled with capable role players, but it needs more stars who can dominate on critical downs. While safety Budda Baker is one such player, the team needs another to emerge. That impact could come from Sweat, whose best season came in 2022 under then-Eagles defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon, when he recorded 11 sacks and 51 pressures. Though traditionally a three-down player with a modest pass-rush profile, Sweat will be Arizona’s primary threat on third downs. While he will attract double-teams, Gannon and defensive coordinator Nick Rallis will scheme to create one-on-one opportunities. If he can consistently beat left tackles, Sweat alone could dramatically improve a pass rush that ranked 26th in pressure rate last season.
Los Angeles Rams: WR Davante Adams
Much of the Rams’ offensive success depends on the health of quarterback Matthew Stafford and left tackle Alaric Jackson. Yet, even with both on the field, the offense must adapt to the departure of Cooper Kupp. The Rams replaced him with a stylistically different receiver in Adams, who excels in isolation and on deep routes—a role the offense has lacked for years. If Adams can capitalize on the separation created by Sean McVay’s scheme while adding a new dimension of matchup problems, he could thrive. However, at 33, Adams cannot afford a decline similar to Kupp’s, as his production will be essential for the yards-after-catch-oriented offense to maintain its potency.
San Francisco 49ers: WR Ricky Pearsall
While Kyle Shanahan’s offense is known for elevating receivers, the 49ers’ depth at the position is thinner than it has been in years. With Deebo Samuel now in Washington and Brandon Aiyuk expected to be out until Week 6 with a knee injury, San Francisco desperately needs Pearsall to step into a significant role immediately. He finished last season strong, with 14 catches for 210 yards and two touchdowns in the final two games, but was quiet before that while recovering from an injury. If Pearsall can stay healthy and replicate his late-season production on a weekly basis, the 49ers’ offense can return to its league-leading form.
Seattle Seahawks: RB Kenneth Walker III
New offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak has a history of building productive running games. While Walker possesses the talent to thrive in this system, he has been hampered by inconsistent vision and nagging injuries since his 1,000-yard rookie season. Explosiveness is his trademark, and opportunities for big plays will be available behind an improved offensive line. Seattle is expected to be a defense-driven team, a formula that works best with a reliable running back who can control the clock and protect leads. Walker must earn that trust and become a consistent force for the offense.
NFC EAST
Dallas Cowboys: WR George Pickens
The trade for Pickens may prove to be the single most impactful move of the offseason. The Cowboys have struggled to find a reliable WR2 opposite CeeDee Lamb, with tight ends and lesser receivers filling the void in recent years. Pickens is unquestionably the most talented partner Lamb has had since Amari Cooper and is capable of leading the team in targets in any given week. With a suspect running game and a potentially vulnerable defense, Dallas will rely heavily on its passing attack. The Pickens-Lamb duo has the potential to become one of the league’s elite receiving tandems, which will be critical for the team to compete.
New York Giants: CB Paulson Adebo
The Giants’ formidable defensive line, featuring Dexter Lawrence II, Brian Burns, and Kayvon Thibodeaux, is built to pressure the quarterback. However, pressure is not enough in an era of quick passes, and the team’s cornerbacks struggled last season. New York needs Adebo, a key free-agent signing, to perform as a true CB1. His presence would allow the defense to deploy 2023 first-rounder Deonte Banks in more favorable matchups with safety help. Over the past season and a half, Adebo played at a top level, recording seven interceptions and 28 passes defensed. If he can return healthy from a major leg injury, he will anchor the secondary and maximize the impact of the pass rush.
Philadelphia Eagles: DT Moro Ojomo
The Eagles have several players stepping into larger roles, but none has a greater chance to become a sudden star than Ojomo. He is tasked with replacing the production of Milton Williams, who departed in free agency. Ojomo had a solid 2024 season, particularly against the run, and generated pressure at a respectable rate. However, he failed to record a sack. With few additions made behind him on the depth chart, the Eagles are counting on him to handle a significant number of pass-rushing opportunities alongside Jalen Carter. If Ojomo can convert his pressures into sacks, he could have a breakout season.
Washington Commanders: WR Deebo Samuel
Samuel was already an intriguing addition when the Commanders traded for him, but his importance has grown amid Terry McLaurin’s training camp holdout and a general lack of receiver depth. Washington’s offense is expected to spread the field, giving Samuel six or seven touches per game as a receiver and backfield weapon. The team needs him to be a dynamic playmaker. Last season, he ranked 12th among skill players in yards after catch over expectation. If Samuel provides that same explosiveness, the offense will have a critical, versatile weapon; if not, the Commanders have few options to replace his unique role.
NFC NORTH
Chicago Bears: LT Braxton Jones
The Bears’ offense has several question marks, but functional play at left tackle feels essential to its success. After a competitive camp battle, incumbent veteran Jones appears set to retain his starting role. An impressive fifth-round rookie in 2022, his performance has since been hampered by inconsistency and injuries. The interior of Chicago’s offensive line was retooled this offseason, but the unit needs time to build chemistry. For an offense with high expectations to reach its potential, Jones must provide steady, high-level play from Week 1.
Detroit Lions: CB Terrion Arnold
The Lions’ defense is set to return several key players from injury, but its biggest change is at cornerback, where D.J. Reed replaces the departed Carlton Davis III. While Reed is a solid veteran, Detroit needs Arnold, last year’s first-round pick, to ascend to the role of a true CB1 capable of shadowing top receivers. Arnold improved steadily as a rookie and will now face a higher caliber of competition. If the defensive philosophy remains aggressive, he will often be left on an island in man coverage. It is a significant challenge, but Arnold has the tools to become the lockdown corner the defense needs.
Green Bay Packers: OLB Rashan Gary
Last season, Gary led all Packers edge rushers with a 13.4% pressure rate, the lowest mark of his career. While the team hopes for more from 2023 first-rounder Lukas Van Ness, it is Gary who signed a four-year, $96 million extension and is expected to be a disruptive force. Though a solid three-down player, he did not generate the volume of pressures expected of a star edge rusher. To make a Super Bowl run, Green Bay needs Gary to win matchups against elite offensive tackles. He made his first Pro Bowl last season but must reach another level to elevate the defense.
Minnesota Vikings: S Theo Jackson
Last year, Minnesota’s chaotic, blitz-heavy defense relied on three safeties, with Cam Bynum serving as the deep-middle anchor. Bynum’s instincts and reliability allowed coordinator Brian Flores to call his most aggressive schemes. With Bynum now in Indianapolis, Jackson is set to fill his role despite having played fewer than 200 defensive snaps over the past two seasons. He has earned praise for his preparation and versatility, but he remains an unproven commodity. If Jackson can provide the same steadying presence Bynum did, the Vikings’ defense can continue to thrive.
NFC SOUTH
Atlanta Falcons: DT Ruke Orhorhoro
The Falcons invested heavily in their pass rush and secondary this offseason but left the defensive tackle position largely untouched. With a thin veteran depth chart, Atlanta is counting on Orhorhoro, a 2024 second-round pick, to become a significant contributor. He played only 148 snaps last season due to injury and will now see his playing time increase by default. Even if the Falcons’ young edge rushers and defensive backs improve, a weakness at defensive tackle could leave the defense vulnerable against the run, undermining progress elsewhere. Orhorhoro’s development is crucial to solidifying the front.
Carolina Panthers: OLB D.J. Wonnum
Last season, the Panthers had the league’s worst pressure rate but saw a notable improvement after Week 10, when Wonnum returned from injury. With the edge rusher room retooled this offseason, he is one of the few returning players and is expected to play a key role. In 2023, his final season with the Vikings, Wonnum recorded eight sacks and 15 quarterback hits. If Carolina can get that level of production from him, it will provide a much-needed veteran presence and prevent the team’s rookie pass rushers from being forced into oversized roles too soon.
New Orleans Saints: LG Trevor Penning
The right side of the Saints’ offensive line looks formidable, but the left side remains a question mark. Penning, a 2022 first-round pick who has struggled at tackle, is moving to left guard. He joins rookie left tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. to form a new-look tandem. While Penning has had issues in pass protection, he has shown flashes of being a powerful run blocker. If he can successfully transition to guard and solidify the position, the Saints will have a line capable of supporting their young quarterbacks and powering a strong running game. If he struggles, it could create instability across the entire unit.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: LB SirVocea Dennis
The Buccaneers’ pass defense was hampered by injuries last season, particularly at linebacker. The team is now entrusting Dennis with the starting spot opposite Lavonte David. Dennis showed promise last September before a shoulder injury sidelined him for much of the season. The Buccaneers made few additions at the position, signaling their confidence in his health and readiness. A strong performance from Dennis would discourage the middle-of-the-field throws that hurt Tampa Bay last year and, combined with young talent in the secondary, could help the defense match the offense’s level of play.
AFC WEST
Denver Broncos: CB Damarri Mathis
Playing opposite Pat Surtain II means being targeted frequently, and that was Mathis’s reality last season. While he wasn’t a liability, he did struggle in key moments against top receivers. His coverage numbers were worse than his film suggests, as he lost several contested catches, but the high volume of targets is unlikely to change. Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph prefers to play man coverage and blitz, which will leave Mathis isolated against opposing receivers. After an encouraging first season as a starter, he must take another step forward for Denver’s defense to remain among the league’s best.
Kansas City Chiefs: S Jaden Hicks
The three-time defending AFC champions have several new faces in key roles, but none is more critical than Hicks. The 2024 fourth-round pick is tasked with replacing Justin Reid, who was the versatile quarterback of Steve Spagnuolo’s masterful defenses. Reid was a reliable tackler, erased mistakes, and excelled in coverage against tight ends. While Hicks was impressive as a rookie, it is a significant challenge to replicate Reid’s steady, high-IQ play. Expect opposing offenses to test Hicks early, particularly in coverage, but it may be Reid’s dependable run support that the Chiefs miss most.
Las Vegas Raiders: C Dylan Parham
The Raiders plan to start Parham at center, a position he has never played in college or the pros. While the team has 2024 second-rounder Jackson Powers-Johnson, a natural center, playing right guard, the decision to move Parham is a significant gamble. Offensive coordinator Chip Kelly likely has a specific vision for the body types he prefers at each position in his scheme. However, a player new to snapping the ball introduces a high degree of risk. If Parham settles in, the line could be solid. If there are issues with snaps or protection calls, it could lead to midseason shuffling and disrupt the unit’s cohesion.
Los Angeles Chargers: OLB Tuli Tuipulotu
Tuipulotu recorded a quiet 8.5 sacks last season as a high-sack, low-pressure player. He also demonstrated a knack for making splash plays in run defense. This season, he cannot just be a situational playmaker. With Joey Bosa no longer on the roster, Tuipulotu will be a full-time starter opposite Khalil Mack, meaning opposing offenses will focus their protection schemes away from him. If he can add down-to-down consistency to his explosive plays while handling an increased snap count, he could become one of the league’s most impactful No. 2 edge rushers.
AFC EAST
Buffalo Bills: WR Keon Coleman
As the Bills continue their quest to break through in the AFC, the biggest question on offense is whether they have a true WR1. Khalil Shakir is an excellent slot receiver, but Coleman is the outside threat they need to emerge. He is not an elite separator but excels as a ball-winner, a style that requires trust and chemistry with his quarterback. If Coleman can develop into a reliable target over the middle of the field and in the red zone, he will add a physical element the offense has been missing. His development could be the key to helping the Bills finally get over the hump.
Miami Dolphins: CB Storm Duck
Duck, a former undrafted free agent, played over 300 snaps last season due to injuries and held his own. Now, following a major offseason retooling of the secondary, he is being thrust into a starting role. While Miami’s front seven is expected to be solid, the performance of the defensive backfield will be crucial in maximizing the pass rush’s effectiveness. With little proven depth at the position, the Dolphins are placing a significant amount of responsibility on Duck. His ability to handle the pressure will have a major impact on the defense’s overall success.
New England Patriots: WR Stefon Diggs
The Patriots saw an encouraging rookie season from quarterback Drake Maye, but he was held back by a poor offensive line and a lack of receiving talent. To support his development, the team acquired Diggs to serve as its WR1. Though recovering from a torn ACL, the 31-year-old was still a productive player last season, excelling in the short-to-intermediate areas of the field. He may need to be schemed open more than a prototypical top receiver, but if he can remain a reliable winner on breaking routes, he will provide Maye with a dependable target and raise the floor of the entire passing game.
New York Jets: RB Breece Hall
The Jets have made it clear they intend to run the ball frequently this season, leveraging a strong interior offensive line and the dual-threat ability of quarterback Justin Fields. This strategy hinges on Hall returning to the explosive form he showed before his 2022 ACL tear. While he has since emerged as a prolific receiver, his rushing efficiency has declined. If Hall can rediscover his home-run ability as a runner while continuing to excel as a pass-catcher, the Jets’ offense will be difficult to defend. If he continues to struggle, he may lose snaps to second-year back Braelon Allen.
AFC NORTH
Baltimore Ravens: LB Trenton Simpson
The Ravens entered last season with high hopes for Simpson, but he struggled and eventually lost his starting job. A 2023 third-round pick with impressive physical tools, he appeared overwhelmed by the mental aspects of the position. With the veterans who replaced him gone, Baltimore is once again giving Simpson the starting role next to Roquan Smith. The Ravens’ defense was elite last year, largely while Simpson was on the bench. Opposing offenses will test him early and often. His ability to rise to the challenge will be critical for the defense to maintain its dominant form.
Cincinnati Bengals: CB Cam Taylor-Britt
Taylor-Britt’s last two seasons illustrate the volatility of cornerback play. His underlying coverage metrics remained consistent, but his results changed dramatically, as he went from four interceptions in 2023 to zero last season and saw his EPA per target skyrocket. Taylor-Britt is a quality player who may benefit from a scheme that allows him to play more man coverage. The Bengals have multiple holes on defense, but the performance of their cornerbacks is paramount. Cincinnati needs him to regain his confidence and provide steady play to solidify the secondary.
Cleveland Browns: DE Alex Wright
The Browns’ defense was dominant in 2023 but took a step back last year, partly due to a lack of pass-rushing depth behind Myles Garrett. Wright, a 2022 third-round pick, was poised for a larger role in 2024 before a torn triceps ended his season in Week 4. He is expected to get the first opportunity to start opposite Garrett this year. To be effective, the defense must be able to punish offenses that dedicate overwhelming resources to stopping Garrett. Wright’s ability to provide a consistent complementary rush will be vital in rebuilding the depth Cleveland has typically enjoyed under coordinator Jim Schwartz.
Pittsburgh Steelers: LT Broderick Jones
The Steelers’ offensive line from left guard to right tackle is young and exciting, built to power a run-heavy offense and protect an aging quarterback. The success of this unit is critical, and that brings the focus to Jones. A 2023 first-round pick, he spent most of his career at right tackle, where he showed dominant flashes in the run game but was inconsistent in pass protection. Jones is now moving to the left side, and a significant leap in his performance is needed. If he can become a reliable blindside protector, this entire offense could take a major step forward.
AFC SOUTH
Houston Texans: RB Nick Chubb
The Texans must establish a reliable running game to prevent defenses from consistently playing two-high safety coverages against star quarterback C.J. Stroud. To that end, they took a calculated risk on Chubb, who is two years removed from a major knee injury. The last time he was healthy, in 2022, he rushed for 1,525 yards. Houston’s offensive line may be inconsistent, so Chubb will need to maximize rushing lanes and create yards on his own. If he can regain his elite form, the offense will be balanced and dangerous. If not, it risks becoming one-dimensional.
Indianapolis Colts: C Tanor Bortolini
While the quarterback position has dominated headlines in Indianapolis, the offensive line is undergoing a critical transition. For the first time since 2016, Ryan Kelly will not be the starting center. In his place is Bortolini, a 2024 fourth-round rookie who played over 300 snaps in relief of Kelly last season. A new center is always a significant adjustment, especially with a quarterback new to the system. Bortolini has the movement skills to excel in the screen game and on perimeter runs, but his ability to anchor in pass protection and make pre-snap calls will determine the stability of the entire unit.
Jacksonville Jaguars: RT Anton Harrison
New coach Liam Coen brings high hopes for the Jaguars’ offense, but he inherits an offensive line that needs improvement. While the interior has been bolstered, the tackle positions remain a concern. Jacksonville needs more from Harrison, a 2023 first-round pick who has started at right tackle for the past two seasons. He has flashed immense potential but has also struggled with inconsistency. For the Jaguars’ offense to reach its potential under Coen, Harrison must smooth out the wrinkles in his game and become a steady, reliable performer.
Tennessee Titans: CB L’Jarius Sneed
Acquired via trade from Kansas City, Sneed was expected to be the cornerstone of new coordinator Dennard Wilson’s defense. However, his 2024 season was derailed by injury after a shaky start. Sneed is now back and healthy, and the Titans need him to return to his 2023 form, when he was one of the league’s most dominant press-man corners. The rest of Tennessee’s secondary is young and poised to improve, but Sneed is the key. If he can once again erase top receivers, this defense has the potential to be a top-10 unit.
